California Recall gubernatorial candidate John Cox’s campaign released new polling Thursday on the recall campaign against Gov. Gavin Newsom which found the most “intensity” on the “Yes” vote on the recall ballot.
The pollster, Moore Information Group, reported:
Governor Gavin Newsom is walking a tightrope among Californians most likely to vote in the upcoming recall election,” Among all voters surveyed, 44% say they would vote “Yes” to recall/remove Newsom while 50% would vote “No” and 6% are undecided. However, among the voters who say are most likely to turn out in a recall election (N=682), it’s bad news for Newsom: 49% would vote “Yes” to recall the Governor while 46% would vote “No” and 5% are undecided.
These results suggest the race is much tighter than recent public polling has indicated. Especially troubling for Newsom is that 1-in-5 registered Democrats, along with 82% of GOP voters and 45% of Independent or NPP/other voters, would vote to recall Newsom – suggesting the effort isn’t solely a partisan affair.
They also unsurprisingly found, “if Newsom is recalled, John Cox is the front-runner to replace him.”
Lastly, the said “Size matters, and this election – like most ‘special elections’ – will be all about the size of the turnout.” The pollsters explain:
Newsom’s numbers are soft, and the data suggests that could soften turnout and boost the “Yes” vote on the recall. The turnout model for this survey is similar to the turnout in the 2003 Recall and respondents were also asked how likely they are to vote in a recall election this year. Only 85% of our sample reported that they are “very” or “fairly” likely to vote in a recall election this year, indicating that turnout could be lower than 2003.
Most interesting was their analysis of the numbers:
In an election that is all about Gavin Newsom, he starts out with only 27% of voters having a “very” favorable opinion of him. More problematic for Newsom is that when looking at the mood of the electorate, just 48% of voters believe California is heading in the “right direction.”
Even more troubling for the Governor, the critical NPP/other block of voters are especially pessimistic with just 43% saying the state is heading in the “right direction” while 51% say it’s heading off on the “wrong track.” If turnout is lower than 2003, Newsom appears to be the likely culprit.
Unless another celebrity-candidate jumps into the recall election,
Here is the pollster’s report:MEMO-Interested-Parties-MIG-June-9-2021
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