According to a new Yahoo News/YouGov Survey released on Tuesday, California Governor Gavin Newsom would have a better chance at beating likely Republican candidates than Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
The survey, which was conducted in late June, found that President Joe Biden has narrowly more support than former President Donald Trump in such an election, beating him 42% to 40%, with 18% undecided. In a matchup between Biden and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Biden would have an even larger 41% to 37% lead, although with a larger 22% undecided group.
However, Californian candidates such as Harris and Newsom were found to do almost as well. A Harris/Trump matchup resulted in a 41%-41% tie, with 18% being undecided. Harris/DeSantis was identical to Biden’s showing, 41%-37% with 22% undecided. A Newsom/Trump battle fared better for Newsom than Harris, with Newsom having a slight 40%-39% edge, with 21% undecided. A Newsom/DeSantis showdown, heavily touted in recent months thanks to incidents like the sparring over Disney jobs and the July 4th ad, has Newsom up 39% to 36%, albeit with 25% undecided.
Another highly touted early GOP candidate, former Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana, was not paired with any of the three Dems, but would also likely lose to all three, due to poll respondents preferring Trump to Pence in a 61% to 18% split.
Among Democratic voters, Biden is also the early favorite when compared to either of the Californians. 31% would like to see Biden remain in office compared to Harris’ 25% with a whopping 39% not being so sure. And with Newsom, people would want Biden back even more, with Biden coming in at 37%, Newsom at 18%, and those not sure at 40%.
In total, both Biden and Trump seem to be the most strongly favored of the major candidates who have currently expressed interest or are rumored for a run, with results similar to the 2020 election.
Newsom, Harris poll worse than Biden
“Newsom and Harris both have many problems if they are looking at a 2024 run,” explained Laura Chaffee, an elections analyst in Washington, DC, to the Globe on Friday. “Newsom has a lot of baggage from being Governor, and he would have to explain to voters nationally why California is where it is with things like the homeless and housing crises’, not to mention having to explain the major recall effort and election to the American people, who will automatically see that as negative. Harris also has a lot of issues, with more towards-the-center Democrats being concerned about how far left she will take some policies, and more liberal Democrats being concerned about her past in San Francisco and her favorability with law enforcement.”
“That’s why Biden is ahead. Yes, he is the incumbent, and yes, he is very unpopular right now. 56% of Americans disapprove of him right now. That’s worse than where Trump was at the same time in his presidency. You have inflation, gas prices, not to mention many remembering earlier failures like his disastrous pulling out of Afghanistan.”
“The GOP doesn’t have an exciting candidate right now either. There’s Pence, whom not many like for, let’s face it, a variety of reasons. There’s Governor DeSantis who many like but also has a lot of stances that many Americans are uncomfortable with, such as LGBT issues and abortion. He’s been compared to Barry Goldwater, the former Arizona Senator who ran for president in 1964 and was creamed by President Johnson due to how conservative he was.”
“And then there is Trump. Currently the leading candidate, but also one of the most polarizing presidents of all time. Just like Biden has failed to be a healer in 2020, Trump would likely not be that person in 2024.”
“Personally, the GOP needs to think outside the box and look for a person of color or woman to lead the charge. There’s people like Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), but all you have to say is ‘Cancun vacation’ and he will lose strength fast. But seriously, finding a historic first combined with a strong healing character and pretty good resume would be a good choice. A return to normalcy is what the American people want, and a candidate needs to come forward conveying that.”
“Plus, you have to admit. Democrats would be furious if the first Asian or Hispanic or female president was Republican and not a Democrat. The Conservative party in the UK always pushes that fact with Maggie Thatcher whenever the other side starts talking about how diverse they are, and they always hate it.”
“This survey is, of course, very early and very preliminary. Midterms haven’t even happened yet. There are so many variables at this point that these numbers can drastically change even by the fall. But, just to have some sort of idea where we are now, it shows that neither Newsom or Harris are in as good political shape as Biden right now and that Republicans need to push someone forward after the midterms who can peak over Biden. But right now, Harris and Newsom? They aren’t looking like the answer for 2024.”
More polls with the viability of Harris and Newsom in a 2024 run are expected in the coming months.