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Rohrabacher Breaks Away from Rouda in Latest Poll

The Incumbent is Cast with a 9 Point advantage

By Sean Brown, November 5, 2018 1:56 pm

In what appears to be a brick wall standing strong against a blue wave, “Republican incumbent Dana Rohrabacher has a nine-point lead over Democrat Harley Rouda heading into the last week of California’s general election,” according to the latest poll.

Congressional District 48 has been one of the most heavily targeted Districts by the DCCC, however challenger Harley Rouda – who has so far ran a stout campaign, may be starting to slip when it matters most.

Conducted between October 18th -25th and surveying 440 likely voters, the poll casts Rohrabacher with 50.7 percent of the vote, Rouda with 41.6 percent and 7.7 percent still undecided.

While this portrayal only represents a 1 percent change from a same-company poll released on October 18th, it also represents nearly a 7 point decrease for Rouda who was casted at 48 percent by a different pollster in mid-October.

The more recent poll published by Thomas Partners Strategies, notes “Rohrabacher has maintained this lead for two weeks in a row while President Trump’s approval ratings averaged 55%. Respondents favor Congress supporting Trump’s policies and agenda rather than acting as a check on the President.”

Chief Strategist John Thomas said “Trump is popular, Republicans are winning the generic ballot and there is a slight edge for the amount of voters who want Trump’s agenda to be pushed in Congress,” before adding “this seat is proving reliably red with a large R+10 Republican registration advantage giving Rohrabcher a large cushion to absorb a generally unfavorable climate for Republicans nationally.”

Thomas also lists President Trump’s strong endorsement of Rohrabacher and calls CA 48 a “firewall holding back the blue wave.”

Sean Brown

Before becoming a writer for the California Globe, Sean served as a Legislative Director in the New York City Council and is an NYU alumnus.
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