Overwhelming Support for Prop 36 Final Poll Shows

A strong October push against  Proposition 36, which will make multiple changes to California drug and theft laws, failed to materialize any significant changes on Friday when the new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) poll found that 60% of voters are still in favor of the proposition, with those against it only getting a negligible 4% more.

The road to Prop. 36, and its current popularity, dates back 10 years ago to Proposition 47, which passed by voters in 2014, not only changed California law so that most theft and drug felonies are only charged as misdemeanors, but it also allowed convicted felons to reclassify those convictions to misdemeanors. It also helped solidify the $950 felony/misdemeanor threshold for thefts that was first brought up through AB 2372 in 2010.

With crime going up as a result of Prop. 47, many began working to craft a new proposition to help reform those laws. The result was Prop. 36, which qualified for the November 2024 ballot to be voted on exactly one decade to the day that Prop 47 was passed. Under Prop. 36, punishments for many drug and theft crimes will be increased once again, including making some current misdemeanor thefts back into felonies, lengthening felony sentences, and requiring that felony sentences be served in prison. In addition, it will also create a new treatment-focused court process for some drug possession crimes, and require that some felonies be served in prison.

Out of the gate, Prop. 36 proved to be very popular. Many retail and voter groups signed on to the initiative. Unusually, Prop. 36 also didn’t have the normal party and geography divides, with even typically liberal Los Angeles and San Francisco, both of which have seen rises in crime and “smash-and-grab” robberies in recent years, providing support.

However, this also came after many attempts to “Stop the amendments against Prop. 47” and some scare tactics of some Prop. 47 supporters saying that some crime bills would be automatically repealed should Prop. 36 pass. Indeed, an uptick of crime enhancement bills were passed the last several sessions, with Governor Gavin Newsom, a Prop. 36 opponent, signing many of them. But many pointed out that it was too little, too late to stop the support for Prop. 36. Recent high-profile crimes also boosted support numbers, making any gains made by the bill passages to draw support away from Prop 36 passing ultimately moot.

In August, a Los Angeles Times/UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll found that 56% of Californians supported Prop 36, with only 23% opposing it. Over two thirds of conservatives and moderates were for it, and even around half of all liberal voters were for it as well,  due in part to the crime swings in major cities. Support jumped significantly last month where the previous PPIC poll found that 71% of voters were in favor of Prop 36, with only 26% in opposition. Political affiliation support was also in the majority across the spectrum, ranging from 85% Republican support to 63% support amongst Democrats. Last month, a new PPIC poll found that 73% of voters were now in favor of Prop 36, with only 25% against and 2% undecided. In comparing PPIC and IGS, IGS puts a bigger emphasis on undecided voters, meaning that with split undecided voter percentages, the IGS and PPIC polls were very closely correlated.

Landslide predicted for Prop 36

This led to Friday, where the newest IGS poll found that 60% of voters are in favor of Prop 36 with only 25% against it and 15% undecided. Little has changes since their previous late September poll which had 60% in favor and 21% against, showing little change. All demographics are also overwhelming for the Proposition, with the exceptions of strongly liberal voters who are 60% against it and voters between the ages of 18-29, who are split 41%-41% on it. Otherwise mane groups favor Prop 36 where they likely wouldn’t otherwise have 4 years ago, including Democrats, who support it 47% to 34%, and every race/ethnicity, with none having a split smaller than 6 points.

While those against Prop 36 made a huge media blitz in October, their efforts proved to do very little to change the overwhelming number of supporters and only grabbing a few undecided voters.

“Support for Proposition 36 remains very broad-based, with large majorities or significant pluralities voting Yes across nearly all major demographic subgroups of the electorate,” said the IGS in their analysis. “Republicans and conservative voters offer nearly universal support for the initiative, and it is also backed by large majorities of the state’s political moderates and independent voters. Almost half of the state’s Democratic voters are backing the initiative, while 34% are opposed, and a relatively large 19% remain undecided. The only major segment lining up in opposition to the initiative are strong liberals, although Black voters are closely divided.”

Rita Walker, a pollster focusing on crime-oriented propositions and ballot initiatives, added that “This is no longer an election for Prop 36 really. It will just be the coronation. Californians saw what easing up on crime did and are now reacting strongly to it. Many want to go much further, but we’ve heard the same thing a lot – ‘It’s a good first step in the right direction.’

“Right now, there is virtually no way this can fail now. Opposition groups pumped so many resources into this yet still fell way, way short. And who knows where this can lead. We could see the return of even more penalties after this. But first thing is first. Let’s see where voting lands on this. Right now it can get anywhere from 65% to 80% of the vote based on these polls. Expect the Proposition to be decided as soon as polling is closed. We’ll be waiting some time for some races, but not this one.”