CA’s 16th House District has Second Place Tie Between Low, Simitian

In a first for California’s jungle primary system, the 16th House District race fell to a tie for second place on Wednesday. Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) and Santa Clara County Supervisor and former state Senator Joe Simitian (D) currently both at 30,249 votes with all votes being counted, is resulting in a likely three-way House race in the district this November.

Following the November announcement by Congresswoman Anna Eshoo (D-CA) that she would not run for reelection in 2024, candidates from all over Silicon Valley and the Southwestern San Francisco Bay area announced runs.  Former Saratoga City Councilor Rishi Kumar (D), Palo Alto Councilwoman Julie Lythcott-Haims (D), and former Menlo Park Mayor Peter Ohtaki (R) joined Simitian and Low, with most analysts expecting a Low-Simitian matchup in November. However, the entrance of former San Jose Mayor and current Stanford professor Sam Liccardo in December quickly threw the race into the most open House race in the state.

Liccardo, who had promised not to run if Eshoo was still running, was suddenly the front runner in the race. Even more, Republican candidates, usually being relegated to 3rd or 4th place in primaries in the area, suddenly now had a chance with Liccardo severely fracturing the Democratic vote. Polls in January showed Liccardo in an insurmountable lead, with Simitian and Low, who had expected to face each other in earnest in November, now suddenly having to fight each other in March. Support levels generally stayed the same through February, but with GOP candidates seeing a surprising bump in support thanks to the U.S. Senate primary and the Republican presidential primary bringing out more than usual in the area.

On March 5th, results of the night showed that Liccardo had just about clinched a spot in November, but with Low, Simitian, and Ohtaki and being within a few thousand votes of each other. The next day, straggling votes led Liccardo to pick up at least one of the spots, leading to a race of votes to still be counted for the others still in contention. Over the next several weeks, Low and Simitian jockeyed for control of second place, always being within a few dozen votes in the Santa Clara County and San Mateo County district.

As the dust settled on Wednesday with all votes being counted, Liccardo came out in first with 38,489 votes, or 21.1% of the vote. However, in an unusual turn of events, both Low and Simitian stood at 30,249, or 16.6%, apiece. The next closest, Ohtaki, wound up with 23,275 votes, or 12.7%. While the results still need to be certified and sent to the Secretary of State, it looks likely that the November ballot will, for the first time under the jungle primary system, have three candidates on the November ballot.

While the improbable result left many supporters baffled due to the extremely long odds of such a tie from happening, both of the tying candidates remained bemused by the final results on Wednesday and Thursday.  Low simply tweeted out “It’s a special “Tie” day!”

It’s a special “Tie” day! @AsmMikeGipson#CALeg pic.twitter.com/N7W5iYoOTh

— Evan Low (@Evan_Low) April 3, 2024

Simitian, meanwhile, gave a slightly longer response, messaging “Thank you for this victory! We have important work to do as a nation and I am ready to do that work. First, that means winning in November. Sometimes it takes a while for democracy to work. This has been one of those times. It has absolutely been worth the wait!”

However, a recount is likely. Under state law, a recount needs to be paid for by one of the candidates, with both Low and Simitian possibly splitting the cost of such a recount to avoid spending a lot more each this fall in campaign costs.

“This was a race where you had multiple strong Democratic candidates along with a split GOP vote,” Northern California pollster Paula Gonzalez told the Globe Thursday. “Liccardo was a lock, and everyone was thinking Low because of him being in the Assembly. But Simitian’s supporters turned out.”

“Honestly, a recount is not out of the question. But the candidates need to figure out what they want. Liccardo is fine either way, recount or no. But Low and Simitian, they go in on a recount, jointly likely, and then one of them is for sure out and the other has to face an extremely strong Liccardo. No recount, and both can siphon votes away, but they’ll both have to raise and spend a lot since this district is highly contended.”

“Also, in a three way race, they’ll also have to try and get conservatives and Republicans to come out for one of them, since they are now the biggest uncommitted block of voters in the district. For those voters, they’ll be thinking who is the least worst, so whoever goes strong on crime might get them.”

“Ties do happen, but usually in smaller races. This is very unusual. And it shows that the jungle primary isn’t fully ready for everything. I mean, a three way race, especially in that district? It’s pretty incredible.”