A ballot box in LA County (Photo: Evan Symon for California Globe)
21% of All Registered Voters Have Already Voted In Recall Election According To SOS Report
‘Outdated and skewed polling methods are being used’
By Evan Symon, September 2, 2021 11:22 am
The California Secretary of State’s office reported on Thursday that 21% of all registered voters in California have turned in a Gubernatorial recall election ballot so far, with ballots being returned by mail currently being the majority favorite method of returning votes.
According to the report, ballots from 4,685,974 of the 22,333,595 total number of eligible voters of the recall election have had ballots accepted so far. Of these, roughly 3.9 million have been returned via the mail with another 800,000 being returned via voter drop boxes. The rest of the votes have been returned by other methods like leaving at a drop off location and fax.
Overall, the ballot acceptance rate has been found to be at 98.5% statewide, largely due to questionable ballots still being reviewed by election figures. Very few have been outright rejected so far.
The SOS results show that many voters will likely be voting either close to election day or in-person on election day, a wait of which that may benefit Governor Gavin Newsom. While earlier surveys showed Newsom barely beating back the recall effort against him, including narrow splits of 48%-46%, 50%-47%, 52%-48%, and 50.2%-49.8% being unveiled in late July and early-mid August, more recent polls have shown a different story.
Since late August, Newsom has climbed to around an 8 point lead. The recently released September Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) survey showed a 58%-39% split in favor of Newsom, with concerns over the new delta variant of COVID-19 being the largest reported reason for Newsom’s upswing of support.
Many election analysts noted on Thursday that the SOS voter percentage and the recent surge in favor of keeping Newsom point to Newsom likely keeping his job past September 14th, although by with many also noting that it is not a foregone conclusion just yet.
Signs point to Newsom defeating recall, experts note that election is still too close to call at this point
“A lot of these surveys being conducted are using survey methods that tend to skew towards Democratic voters,” explained former lobbyist Harry Schultz to the Globe on Thursday. “First of all you need to get the person wanted on the phone to actually do the survey, which is no small feat today. Many of these surveys also tend to focus on the San Francisco area or around Los Angeles and San Diego due to needing to be more centralized. While they do have more of a population, it often doesn’t fit exactly were everyone is proportionally.”
“So while these surveys are a good indicator, especially aggregate scores of multiple surveys, it’s also not accurate. These same methods predicted Hillary Clinton beating both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump in the 2016 Democratic primary and presidential election in Michigan respectively, but she lost both times . It was a shock both times too, but it was because those polling methods failed. They failed to account for many variables. And there are so many more, including many in California last year that had Democrats winning again in House seats in Orange County when they really lost 3 out of the 4 contested ones, as well as the infamous 1936 Literary Digest poll that had Alf Landon beating FDR for the presidency because of, again, outdated and skewed methods being used.”
“Newsom is surging once again right now. Those Democratic attack ads are working, but a returning COVID threat also have more people returning to Newsom, who has been big on more drastic measures to try and reduce spread, rather than another candidate, many of whom are against mandates and closing California again.”
“The big takeaway is that 21% of registered voters have already voted. In 2018, 12.4 million out of 19.6 registered voters voted in the Gubernatorial, which, very roughly, is 63% of all voters. Assuming that we get about that amount again, we’re already a third of the way there, and we may hit as much as half by election day. Usually Republicans do better with in-person voting, but with Newsom gaining right now, it may hurt those in favor of a recall. There’s just so much to consider in this race.”
The California recall election is due to be held on September 14th.
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Democrats loved their polished turd but a polished turd is still just a turd. Nothing worse than an asshole with a vendetta and that’s what we will have if he beats this.
PLEASE DO NOT use these voting boxes – PLEASE VOTE IN PERSON on the 11th to 14th so you can SEE your ballot and have it run thru the Dominion Voting Systems machinery that is PERVASIVE throughout the Counties of California….
They are EVERYWHERE, pretty much….
Vote integrity is going to be the KEY to getting this slimewad Governor sent packing back to his Plumpjack…
He has been anointed by the WEF as one of their “young influencers” for their eventual goals and we need to SHORT CIRCUIT everything Herr Schwab and his evil minions have designs on…. EVERYTHING….
People who want to track their mail-in ballot can do so through the SoS website: https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ballot-status/wheres-my-ballot. The received date should be consistent with your mailing date if your county officials are on-the-ball. There may be some consistency issues between counties. Some seem to be more on-the-ball than others.
Get your sane friends to all vote and vote for the recall. Pick ANY other candidate of your choice but get rid of Newsom.
“Newsom is surging once again right now. Those Democratic attack ads are working, but a returning COVID threat also have more people returning to Newsom, who has been big on more drastic measures to try and reduce spread, rather than another candidate, many of whom are against mandates and closing California again.”
Really? I’m watching the Ohio St. vs Minnesota college football game right now with a stadium full of students (18-34 age group) not wearing masks or social distancing, having a great time. How many California students who are also watching this game are asking themselves, “Why are WE being required to wear masks and social distance?” Who do you think these student going to blame – the Republicans? C’mon man.
If Noisome cheats his way out of the recall he will have to deal with God directly and it will not turn out well for him and his people. Enough is enough.
I am sobered a little by the recent polls showing a good lead for Newsom, but I am in no way less inclined to include my vote. On the contrary, I would not miss voting for the recall for anything short of an early, unexpected death. I’m easily in the crawl over broken glass camp. I want all of our voices to be heard. I note that in recent years, polls tend to underestimate conservative choices. That was due to the structure of the polls. What is notable now is the motivation of not just conservatives, but so many who realize Newsom is a loser. I think even my wife, a Democrat, voted for Elder. Never give up while the heart beats and the mind knows the way forward.
Donaldw, I believe you are right to be skeptical about the polls and to maintain hope. The success of this recall will be determined by voter turnout. Less enthusiasm leading to lower turnout on the Democrat side and more enthusiasm with higher turnout on the Republican/Independent side. Republicans and Independents combined outnumber Democrats by 1.5 million voters. In addition, I would guess around 10% – 12% of the Democrats who participate will do so as your wife did. These are Democrats who signed the recall petition. As they say, ”It’s not over until the fat lady sings.” (Nothing against fat people of course).
The article mentioned faxed votes. I have never heard of faxing votes before. Please write more about faxing votes.
I don’t trust polls, especially when cheating runs rampant in California elections.
I am voting in person to RECALL Newsom.
The PPIC poll and Mark Baldassare who runs it have always existed to try to INFLUENCE opinion, not reflect it. Often the goal has been to grease up the public to pass a tax increase or bond measure.
With regard to Gavin Nuisance, search for video of Baldassare and his outfit PPIC interviewing Gavin as Gov or Lt Gov and you will see for yourself. Baldassare fawns all over Newsom.
Just ignore the polls in any event and Vote YES to RECALL NEWSOM.
Yes, Showandtell. I’ve seen Baldassare interviewed on the cable networks. Isn’t he a former chair of the CaGOP? I agree that the polls are virtually useless at this point because many have already voted. Who are they polling at this point? Exaggerated poll results are an attempt at voter suppression; much like what is done during presidential elections when networks prematurely “call” the election for a candidate.
Ok kids, here’s a must read from Breitbart Friday 9/3 ~ “EXPERTS CALL FOR RIGOROUS AUDIT TO PROTECT CALIFORNIA RECALL” 40 counties are using Dominion machines, and they are talking about Cyber Symposium
So Marilyn, this would be a “rigorous audit” for the purpose of overturning the recall of Newsom should he be ousted. Is that right? Now we know how afraid they are of losing this thing. As I said, this is the final card – The Joker – that the Democrats are placing to stack the deck of cards. AGAIN.
Here’s Prof. Stark of UC Berkeley; one of the advocates of the “rigorous audit” of Dominion in California: https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~stark/other.htm. He seems very much like a typical Berkeley liberal to me. I don’t think he would be a person wanting to help Larry Elder, Kevin Kiley or any other Republican, do you?