California Shows First Population Gain Since 2020

Chief Demographer of California Walter Schwarm announced on Monday that the population of California will rebound for the first time since 2020.

According to the 2020 U.S. Census, California’s population that year was at roughly 39.5 million. However, due in part to high taxes, a high cost of living, crime issues, the decline of the tech industry, an increase of work from home positions, and the COVID-19 pandemic freeing up many people to go into a position to more easily move, California’s population decreased dramatically in the next several years. Hundreds of thousands of people left the state. At the same time, immigration was largely curbed by the pandemic, with fewer families choosing to start families during the same time. As a result, even with inter-state immigration, California continued to lose people. By July 2022, the state had just over 39.1 million people, with the greatest losses coming from the Bay area of the state. In 2022 alone, over 800,000 people left California to go to other states. Compared to the 2020 Census, the state population stood at 38.96 million in July 2023.

However, loss rates began to slow down in 2022 and 2023. COVID restrictions and the huge decline of COVID deaths, a shift to working remotely, a rebounding birth rate, less people moving to other states, politics of different states, a renewal of job opportunities in some parts of the state such as Southern California and the San Joaquin valley, many former Californians moving back from other states, and changing migration policies led to a tapering off of population losses. Between July 2022 and July 2023, the state only lost 32,000 people because of these factors.

“The loss was very real for several years, but the population shifts are now stabilizing again,” Catherine Constantine, an interstate job placement specialist, told the Globe on Tuesday. “And it’s not because California is perfect. A ton of people moving here or returning here, their number one complaint, is the taxes. But besides the usual reasons, like the weather or pace of life, it’s because California has proven to be really good about hybrid work. Other states, especially Texas, aren’t so great at that.”

“A lot of people just wanted to move out before the pandemic, then did so once it became feasible. And things are just now shifting back to normal. California is just too big to have any long-term population loss like, say, West Virginia. First few years after the pandemic, California wasn’t in the top 5 states for most people to relocate to. Now it is again.”

According to preliminary data from Schwarm and the Department of Finance, California’s population has now peaked above 39 million once again, showing small yet steady growth.

California population climbs above 39 million for first time since 2022

“Today, fewer people are able (or allowed) to work 100% remotely, the death rate from COVID-19 has fallen dramatically, and the Biden administration has reversed many Trump-era limits on legal migration,” said Schwarm. “These forces form the prime reasons for the return to positive population growth.”

“With hybrid work arrangements becoming more common in late 2022 and throughout 2023, the number of individuals moving to California once again increased to historical levels. Those individuals moving to California are on average highly educated and earning commensurately higher levels of income.”

Department of Finance spokesman H.D. Palmer added, “We’re growing for the first time in recent years. It’s not at the go-go levels seen in past decades. But it’s a return to small levels of growth. Hopefully it’ll stay small. Forty million people in 2040 has a much better ring than 60 million.”

While the final report will not be released until May 1st, the rebounding of California’s population has led many to hope that California can now continue to come back.

“It’s really a whole mix of things,” added interstate migration researcher Laura Paulding to the Globe on Tuesday. “Most areas of the state are trying to go hard on crime again, jobs are looking better out there, and really, the mystique of California is still there despite the last several years of so many things going wrong.”

“The question now is if this growth will last. We didn’t see the numbers yet, but this ‘rebound’ likely won’t be too high. And there are still many people leaving the state over high costs and other issues. I’d say we leave these results as an anomaly until next year. One positive year in a string of negative ones is still a net negative. We need to see sustained growth to really say California is coming back.”

“That being said, this is a positive first result and could show that California bottomed out in terms of population loss. So, take this first report with a pinch of salt until we see the wider picture.”

The final report is due to be released on May 1st.