Since the last update in April, California’s U.S. Senate race has faced a growing number of speed bumps. New polls and campus protests have kept both Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) and former pro baseball star Steve Garvey (R) from being quiet and out of the news cycle. With 6 months to go before election day on November 5th, this is where the Senate race stands now:
What have the candidates been up to?
Schiff and Garveywere fairly pretty quiet through most of April. Schiff’s been in and out of Washington with Congressional duties, and Garvey has continued working on his upcoming campaign. But as soon as late April hit, both candidates suddenly found themselves in the limelight.
For Schiff, he made headlines when he was robbed in San Francisco. Specifically, his car was broken into in a parking garage there before a series of speeches and fundraisers, forcing him to go to a few events in street clothes. While he brushed the robbery off and was praised for “rolling with the punches,” the incident undermined things he has said in the past about crime. Experts even noted that if Schiff ever brought up how crime was improving or how more progressive measures are needed, all Garvey would need to do is bring up the incident to discredit him.
Meanwhile, Garvey has been vocal about the Gaza protests occurring across the state. Specifically he said this last month:
“This is terrorism disguised as free speech,” said Garvey in his speech in Los Angeles last month. “The students are making a statement that they probably don’t really understand what it’s about. What they’re saying is: they’re pro-Hamas. They’re pro-terrorists. They’re supporting terrorism.
“These organizations aren’t by kids in dormitories who are making a statement that they probably don’t really understand what it’s about. This is organized support of terrorism. I believe demonstrations that allow people to build encampments that obstruct the pathway to classes, and the opportunity to learn, is terrorism.”
In recent days, Garvey reaffirmed those statements and his support for Israel. Schiff, meanwhile, has been radio silent on the protests. While he is a supporter of Israel, many of his colleagues are against the Gaza war. Not helping matters is the fact that Gaza protestors ruined his victory party on election night in March, causing him to cut his speech short, allowing the protesters to overshadow his win – something he has not forgiven them for.
In short, both suddenly became very busy late last month.
Who is backing who?
No new endorsements have been announced still, with each candidate only bringing with them the endorsements carried over from the primary. However, the number is expected to expand greatly soon, as very few Republicans and right groups have yet to send out endorsements, with Schiff already grabbing most on the left. Schiff would want President Joe Biden and the California Democratic Party on his wishlist, while Garvey may be looking at more subtle endorsements. He has yet to ask former teammates in LA and San Diego, which could give him significant boosts in those areas.
But right now, if any endorsements do happen during many, it will be likely Schiff cleaning up any remaining Democratic lawmakers in California he didn’t get yet, with Garvey getting state and local GOP organizations and reps on his side.
How is polling going?
Well, the PPIC had the first post-primary poll come out this week, showing that a post-primary Schiff had moved ahead significantly, with 61% of voters in favor of Schiff, 37% in favor of Garvey, and only 2% undecided. These figures are roughly similar to the 2012 Senate race, where Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein defeated Republican candidate Elizabeth Emken 62.5% to 37.5%.
Pollsters told the Globe not to give the PPIC poll too much credence as they are known to be way off, such as their last pre-primary poll showing that Garvey would lose 2nd place to Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA), when in reality he beat her by over 1 million votes. However, even with the weighted numbers, the poll showed that Garvey was actually winning some regions, while only being slightly behind in the high population regions of the Inland Empire and San Diego/Orange County. The poll also showed him doing well amongst whites and latinos, as well as having an unusual for a Republican bump in LA support – likely stemming from his Dodger past.
More polls are due out this month from the more reliable polling groups like UC Berkeley IGS, so those numbers should serve as a post-primary baseline going forward.
What is coming up next?
Right now, Schiff is busy in Congress until the summer recess. He still has fundraisers and the like to go to, so he isn’t totally going to be out of the election loop in May. Assuming he isn’t robbed again.
Garvey will likely be more busy. He’s been giving more interviews in recent weeks, even saying how they are going more after independents, disenfranchised Democrats, and undecideds. It’s been a slow rollout, but the campaign is getting him more and more used to the press. Schiff is comfortable with the press and large events, as shown through the debates, and team Garvey wants him to get to that level while Schiff is distracted in Washington.
This May, expect a bit more from Garvey, especially if the protests manage to linger on. He’s still building up his campaign, and we may seem him get more and more out of SoCal for speeches. Or at the very least start going to both base areas and improvement areas. So LA, Inland Empire, Sand Diego, Orange County, and going into California’s breadbasket all the way up to Sacramento. And if he is feeling bold, maybe way North California.
Schiff is in Congressman mode, and likely won’t do much outside of speeches and fundraisers this month, unless he has to respond to something major. If Garvey or someone else can bring something big out, Schiff would need to respond – something he doesn’t want to do. He was mad enough he had to give an official response after the SF luggage incident.
May is likely to still be more on the quiet side, but with everything going on, who knows.
Election day this year will be Tuesday November 5th.
View Comments (7)
Polls are pretty much irrelevant in California. Elections here are determined by ballot harvesting, mail-in voting, election day voter registration, as well as public employee union interference and millions of illegal aliens, dead relatives and household pets voting.
Can you provide proof that undocumented immigrants are voting?
More insidious than "immigrants voting" is the CVRA creation of population based "rotten boroughs" full of illegal residents, but getting one full district voting power in the elected body.
Very cheap for special interests to swoop in and pick up an easy victory since here are only a very few registered voters to win in these unconstitutional "rotten boroughs" that undermine completely the American tradition of one-person, one vote.
How many "rotten boroughs" does it take to regain control of the House of Representatives for the Democrats and their public sector union backed interests? How many "rotten boroughs" does it take to subvert the legal resident politics al will of city councils, school districts and every other elected district entity in this state?
CVRA was an act of pure Democrat cynicism, rotting this state from within.
60:40 -- pretty much the way past elections have gone. No movement for any office.
500,000 state government employees in California taking our tax dollars and voting100% Democrat is one heckuva base. Voter turn out remains the weak link. We are out there, but too many still do not vote having been bulldozed by SEIU (D) and the teachers unions (D) one too many times.
Make a pledge - walk your own precinct. Get a list of GOP and independents i your own neighborhood. You might be surprised how many like-minded folks are already in place. Just make sure they vote this time.
The election is already settled. Schiff won.
Schiff is Prop 1 in drag.
No, California is no longer doing stupid. Younger independent voters refuse to sign up as Democrats and are finally understanding what Democrats did to their own futures in this state.
It will not be over for a long time in this election. Schiff only has traction with the hard core government employee union voters. Garvey has not yet made his case and few even care until it is a lot closer to election day.
TURN OUT THE LIGHTS STEVE, THE PARTY’S OVER
(But imagine what might be)
“61% of voters in favor of Schiff, 37% in favor of Garvey, and only 2% undecided. These figures are roughly similar to the 2012 Senate race, where Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein defeated Republican candidate Elizabeth Emken 62.5% to 37.5%.”
The Garvey-Schiff race is over. California voters want more of the same. California patriots should spend no time or money on the race. We must spend our inherently limited time and money on races we can win.
******************************
While Garvey, his establishment consultants, and the CA Rep Party lack the imagination, intellectual flexibility, and fighting spirit to wage effective, political guerrilla war against Schiff, in a parallel universe with a bold and effective Rep Party with fighting spirit, Garvey has a chance of winning.
What would “effective, political guerrilla war” in that hypothetical parallel universe look like? Here is a rough draft.
A. When you are at 37%, you have nothing to lose by being bold.
B. Pick a small number of issues, (no more than five) and talk only about them.
#1. Open borders and unlimited immigration. Schiff and the entire Dem Party favor them.
Other potential issues: cost of living, parental rights and tranz’ing children, the Regime’s effective repeal of Title IX, school choice, and as a sleeper issue, SB 770, the Dem Party’s scheme to take Medicare from California seniors.
And use the broader theme of “freedom and abundance vs. Schiff’s and the Dems’ engineered scarcity and control.”
C. Rent or buy a bus. Travel the state making short videos of the problems of Dem rule in California. Start with border and video the illegals pouring across.
Do “man on the street” interviews with working men and women, e.g. “the Dem Party is building million dollar condos for homeless people. You work hard for a living. Do you have a million-dollar condo?”
Find parents of young people killed by Fentanyl pouring across the Schiff’s and the Dem Party’s open border.
Find family members of Californians killed or raped by illegals, especially illegals turned loose by the Dem Party’s sanctuary state policy.
Recruit a team of 1000, preferably 10,000 activists to share your videos.
D. Portray Schiff as the corrupt, lying, out-of-touch Swamp elitist that he is.
Show his houses, net worth, where he vacations, etc.
E. Do events that the media can’t help themselves but cover.
For examples, join the people counter-protesting the Marxist pro-Hamas protesters.
Speak at school board meetings with parents demanding parental notification policies or opposing allowing boys to compete in girls’ sports and allowing boys in the girls’ locker rooms.
Speak at the Huntington Beach city council to support their voter ID policy.
F. Adopt the persona of a kind, loving, but very concerned grandfather.