Tonight’s Big Debate – What to Watch For

Get ready for the return of Ol’ Black Eyes.

Despite being told by experts that President Biden’s eyes appearing to be coal black – whenever he actually gives a not-embarrassing speech, that is –  is merely a trick of the light, we all know that that’s probably not true and the president will have been given something to, um, enhance his performance tonight.

Adderall, Ritalin, or something along those lines can improve focus and performance, doctors say.  Of course, out a sense of media balance, asking what former President Donald Trump may be on has to be done, though him taking any drug is actually quite unlikely.  Even during the go-go, coke-coke Manhattan of the 1980s, Trump was (and continues to be) known as being an abstainer from pretty much everything beyond the occasional glass of champagne to celebrate a development deal or yet another wedding.

For Biden, the stakes are incredibly high, no pun intended.  This will be the earliest debate between presidential candidates – ever – and that allows fretful Democrats to pull the plug on the Biden campaign well before the national convention  if he appears to be a jabbering mess tonight.   

That timing is not at all an accident – Biden is being taken for a test drive tonight to see if can possibly cope with the upcoming campaign – period, full stop, as Gavin Newsom – who will be watching very very very closely tonight – would say.

Because it is quite possible that Biden will collapse or wander off stage or ask about the moderators’ dead relatives or slur his words or talk about how he freed Nelson Mandela from jail while he was single handedly desegregating, oh, maybe, let’s say France this time.

In other words, anything that has happened since he took office could possibly happen again and if it’s bad enough it could be a dream come true for the Democrats, for then the party will have an obvious and incontrovertible and spinnably non-political reason to replace him as the nominee and then they will have two months to figure who gets the top spot on the ticket.

In other words, if Biden goes Biden tonight he becomes eminently replaceable in August.

Much has been made of Trump playing on Biden’s home turf and that is true – no audience, CNN people who are not fans of his and they can cut his microphone anytime puts the naturally gregarious Trump at a disadvantage.  And that is where Trump’s debate preparation – if done properly – could show.

Trump needs to be calmer than normal so as not to spook the very large audience of undecided voters that will be watching.  And he needs to hold his tongue when Biden starts ramb-i-lying.

Trump has a habit if interrupting. First, it can look rude but second, in this case, it would be large tactical mistake. Letting Joe talk increases the possibility he will say something about how Amtrak was invented by his alien overlord master Gorblatt.

As to California, Trump could talk about how the Moldin’ State has become one big cautionary tale about progressive policies.  And he would be right.

Biden – if his handlers are smart – will not mention the state – at all (sorry, Gavin.)

But –  short of nakedness and ranting and running out to sniff moderator Dana Bash’s hair in the middle of the debate – tonight will not bring California “back into play” for Trump.

He is loathed in the rich bits of the state within 30 miles of the ocean and that will not change.

However, what could change is the margin of Biden’s victory and that could have definite impacts in statehouse, congressional, and proposition votes.  It could also mean that the much touted “national popular vote” wins of both Biden and Hillary Clinton may not happen this time.

In 2016, the not-all-election denier Clinton won the national popular vote by about 2.9 million votes.  Her winning margin in California alone was 4.2 million, meaning in the rest of the country she lost by 1.3 million votes.

In 2020, Biden won the national vote by 7 million:  6 million of that margin came from California alone.  Throw in his margin in Maryland and that’s it – in other words, he won the “50 state” popular vote, but lost the “48 state” version.

This is extremely important as those popular vote “wins” have been what Democrats have been hanging much of their “Trump is an evil dictator, the public hates and fears him, etc.” message on.

So while California will most likely not play a big role in electoral bit of the election, how it votes will play a monumental role in determining the air of legitimacy of the next president, be it Biden or Trump, but especially Trump.

Because if he can win both the popular and electoral vote in November – in part by keeping Biden’s margin to no more than about 2.5 million (that would have Biden winning the state by about 10 points – he won by nearly 30 last time) – then Trump might be considered the actual choice of the public, no matter what media/deep state say.

Nah – who are we kidding?  They’s still hate and undermine him.  But at least they’ll lose a cocktail party talking point.

You can watch the debate at 6 p.m. on CNN – that is, if you can remember their channel number.

Note – RFK Jr. will be participating in the debate, sort of.  He’ll be answering – in real time – the same questions asked of Trump and Biden.  You can watch that here: https://therealdebate.com/