Mount Shasta from the south near Dunsmuir, CA, elevation 14,179 feet, Siskiyou County. (Photo: Wikipedia)
CA’s Northern Rural Counties’ 135k Recall Signers Are Not ‘Highest Support for Newsom Recall’ as Claimed
5 So Cal counties’ recall signers provided 54% of total valid signatures.
By Katy Grimes, May 8, 2021 10:55 am
The California Secretary of State’s office released a final recall petition report on Wednesday, showing that a total of 1,719,943 valid signatures were verified out of 2,161,349 signatures submitted two months ago – just under an 80% validation rate, the Globe reported Thursday.
“Highest support for Newsom recall comes from California’s rural, northeastern counties, final state numbers show,” KTLA’s headline reported Friday.
Knowing that the population of California’s rural counties is a fraction of the state’s population, this didn’t add up. The total population of Modoc County is 8,635. Plumas County population is 18,939. We aren’t talking numbers large enough to even total 1,719,943. The U.S. Census and state report that just under 1% of the total California population live in rural counties, which makes the KTLA headline dubious.
“Support for the petition to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom is highest in conservative, sparsely populated California counties in parts of the Sierra Nevada and the state’s rural, remote northeast, newly released data shows,” KTLA reported, focused on percentages of registered voters in rural counties.
This statement misconstrues the statistical data.
The article however, starts with noting total recall signatures in the state, as opposed to the percentage of registered voters who signed the recall petition, which is the entire basis of their headline and story:
“The California secretary of state’s office released its final report Wednesday, verifying more than 1.7 million signatures have been certified as valid in the effort to recall the Democratic governor.”
Looking at the number of actual signatures by registered voters in the counties is probably more instructive. The Secretary of State reports:
The top five counties with verified recall petition signatures are:
Orange County: 285,452 submitted, 215, 714 validated
Riverside County: 186,806 submitted, 146, 804 validated
San Bernardino County: 130,382 submitted, 106,475 validated
San Diego County: 238,095 submitted, 179,039 validated
Los Angeles County: 328,224 submitted, 264, 495 validated
The total of these five counties’ verified recall signatures is 912,526, out of the statewide 1,719,943 million – a little under 54% of the total validated recall signatures.
“The sparsely populated California counties in parts of the Sierra Nevada and the state’s rural, remote northeast” may have as a percentage of registered voters had the most support, but the total of those 15 counties is 135,558 verified signatures out of the 1.7 million submitted, as follows:
El Dorado County: 26,777 submitted, 22,103 validated
Amador County: 6,017 submitted, 4,966 validated
Placer County: 58,515 submitted, 45,868 validated
Yuba County: 7,947 submitted, 5,836 validated
Sutter County: 8,269 submitted, 6,544 validated
Butte County: 19,329 submitted, 15,942 validated
Sierra County: 493 submitted, 406 validated
Plumas County: 2,057 submitted, 1674 validated
Lassen County: 3,731 submitted, 2,855 validated
Shasta County: 24,534 submitted, 18,943 validated
Modoc County: 1,221 submitted, 908 validated
Siskiyou County: 6,019 submitted, 4,921 validated
Glenn County: 2,967 submitted, 2,523 validated
Colusa County: 1,821 submitted, 1,537 validated
Tehama County: 6,713 submitted, 5,207 validated
The total of those 15 rural counties is 135,558 verified signatures, of the 1.7 million total verified. This isn’t even 10% of the 1,719,943 million total validated signatures – it’s a little under 8% of the state’s recall petition signatures.
While percentage of registered voters is a valid measurement, is should be with context.
Could KTLA’s headline be in search of a story? “Highest support for Newsom recall comes from California’s rural, northeastern counties, final state numbers show.”
It isn’t until the 10th paragraph the KTLA article addressed the percentage of California’s registered voters who signed the recall petition: “In the end, more than 1.7 million valid signatures from registered voters were counted. That’s nearly 7.8% of the state’s more than 22 million voters.”
What’s the point of the article? The headline is supposed to tell the story, rather than the data. The rural counties provided a little less than 8% of the recall signatures (In line with the total registered voters who signed the recall), while the five southern California counties provided more than half – nearly 55% — of the valid recall signatures.
When the numbers do the talking, we see the bigger picture.
RECALL newsom-heatlie-final
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Very glad to see this effective counter-punch to KTLA’s attempted spin. As you probably know, KTLA, once a fine local news station, is now joined-at-the-hip to the Los Angeles Times, which is itself joined-at-the-hip to continuation of Gavin Newsom as governor.
And Gavin Newsom and the LA Times and KTLA are all joined at the hip to the Propaganda of the National Security State and Intelligence Agencies. Has anyone actually looked at the LATimes New Owner and his intelligence ties and financial conflicts in Puerto Rico and with CIA fronts?
Showandtell nails it everytime! I’m a native Californian who bailed to Texas 2 years ago but still and always will read Katy Grimes’ excellent articles regarding California politics. My grandparents and most of my native born California family would by appalled with the current political situation of our magnificent state even though the majority were democrats.
So grateful for the California Globe and its followers. The Golden State has been STOLEN by low information idiots but it will be restored to sanity with time and the persistence of thinking individuals of all races and backgrounds. Carry on my brothers and sisters of “The crown jewel of the new dispensation”….Mark Twain
D Carmi: As we used to write on postcards, “Having a wonderful(?) time, wish you were here!”
But I can well understand why you and many others either cannot or will not stay in California in these terrible times. Very best wishes to you.
Nice push back on the data manipulation to support their narrative – that the recall effort is just a product of Trump supporters.
That is a pathetic comment…. This has nothing to do with Trump… Get over it… If you cannot see what is going on with this once great state, you are part of the problem.
Stupid, hateful, lying liberals thought this was some sort of insult. I am proud to live in a rural area and to have signed to recall Noisome the goobenor.
CW: This seems like an offshoot of the “deplorables and unredeemables” nonsense that Newsom and his hangers-on themselves manufactured out of whole cloth. But really, what do they have if they don’t have their fake narrative of mocking the Recall by demonizing their made-up stereotypes?
I also think this dishonest KTLA spin is a way to divert attention from the unexpectedly huge number of Recall signers in L.A. County, which is thought to be majority Dem and thus automatic (they think) Newsom backers. But is L.A. County a slam-dunk to retain Newsom? It doesn’t look like it. Not at all.
Speculation: There are 88 municipalities in L.A. County, many of which absorbed new U.S. citizens over many years and most may be registered Democrats for a number of reasons, not least because Dem politicians promised and doled out goodies to new immigrants in hopes of buying their votes. Probably many who then became citizens have since wised up as they noticed their new country becoming like the one they left. Thus many LEGAL immigrants, now citizens, although technically registered Democrats, don’t vote “D”. Add to that the plenty of other Democrat voters who are also fed up with Newsom and want him gone.
Good thing Katy Grimes did this analysis. Otherwise the KTLA fake headline and brightly-colored map disinformation would have gone unanswered.
There are lies, there are damned lies and then there’s the media.
I think that some of these rural petition gathering efforts have a genuine grassroots aspect to them. I love rural California – the people are wonderful, and California’s natural landscape is incomparable. I wish the state would go back to the constitutional design that was destroyed in Reynolds v. Sims where each county had equal representation in the Senate. That way, there would be a real balance to legislation, and you wouldn’t need Prop 13.
Neanderthals, Love Ya
Unfortunate, all the moochers in urban hell holes think otherwise….they will quickly feel…..inflation and kitchen table scarcities …… far far more punishing than being only “donut rich”.