Prop. 32 Support Plummets for $18 Minimum Wage Increase 6%

Support for Proposition 32, which will increase the state minimum wage to $18 per hour beginning on January 1, 2025, has fallen by 6% between early August and Late September, according to the latest UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Sciences released this week. The once strong proposition may now be defeated on Election Day.

The California state minimum wage has been steadily rising since 2016, when then-Governor Jerry Brown signed SB 3 into law. There a “phase in” tiered set up was installed, raising the minimum wage steadily from $10.50 an hour for larger employers in 2016 to $15 in 2022. After that was reached, annual raises based on the consumer price index kicked it across both smaller and larger employers, with the statewide minimum wage going up to $15.50 an hours in 2023 and $16 at the beginning of this year.

However, the minimum wage in many places and industries is also higher than that. Currently, the minimum wage in San Francisco is $18.67 an hour, while West Hollywood has a $19.65 minimum wage. For fast food employees statewide, the minimum wage was raised to $20 an hour since April, although that endeavor has proved disastrous with over 5,400 jobs being lost so far as a result.

With inflation and the cost of living continuing to rise, Prop 32 was created to quicken the rise of the state minimum wage even more. According to the Proposition, “The ballot initiative would increase the state minimum wage to $18 an hour over several years. Like SB 3, the ballot initiative would increase the minimum wage at different speeds depending on whether an employer has 26 or more workers or 25 or less workers. For employers with 26 or more workers, the minimum wage would reach $18 on January 1, 2025. For employers with 25 or less workers, the minimum wage would reach $18 on January 1, 2026. Also like SB 3, the minimum wage would be tied to the CPI-W after reaching $18.”

If passed, the state minimum wage would briefly go up to $17 an hour from November to the end of December, when the $18 an hour tier kicks in on January 1st.

Early on, support for Prop 32 was high, thanks to California’s high cost of living and high inflation being hot button issues. A USC/CSU Long Beach Poll in January found that the proposition was at 59% approval, with only 34% opposing. By early August, it was still on track to pass, with 52% of voters approving it and only 34% opposing it. But warning signs were evident, with a growing number of undecided voters and the rising number of job losses tied to the fast food minimum wage hike worrying many that a statewide raise could lead to even more losses.

Prop 32 backlash

By early September, a PPIC poll, with no undecided option, found that Prop 32 passing was no longer a sure thing, and was now, in fact, very much in danger of being defeated. The poll found that it was a tight 50% to 49% total. This led to the latest IGS poll being released this week and finding that support has slipped even more. According to the poll, which garnered responses in late September, only 46% of California voters supported the proposition, with 36% against and 18% undecided.

Support fell across the board. In August, 7 of the 8 Californian regions had 49% support in favor or more. But in the latest poll, only the San Francisco Bay area, Los Angeles County and the North Coast can claim that much. Key moderate voters support also fell dramatically going from 49% in support to a flat 40%. Similarly, no party preference voters in support went from 51% in August to only 39% in September.

“Voters were also asked for their voting preferences on two other ballot measures included on the state’s November general election ballot,” said Berkeley IGS Director Mark DiCamillo in a statement. “The poll finds that voter support for Proposition 32, to increase the state’s minimum wage, has dipped below the 50% threshold needed for passage, with just 46% now intending to vote Yes. This represents a six-point decline in Yes side support from an early August Berkeley IGS Poll.”

Others told the Globe on Wednesday that support would likely continue to further dip as  election day approaches.

“This is going to be close, but as we have seen during the latest polls out in California, fewer voters there want this to happen,” Bernard Warren, an analyst who tracks minimum wage changes, told the Globe. “There are a lot of reasons for this, but you are right in that a big reason has been because of the fast food raise and all the chaos that has caused. People have been seeing all those lost jobs rack up and have been second-guessing it. This has been especially seen in the number of Californians making less than $40,000 group. The IGS poll had them go down 10% for those wanting a raise. That has to tell you something.

“If this track continues, we could be seeing early 40’s support by the end of the month with far fewer undecided voters. They might get some down ballot votes from the large number of Democratic voters, but right now, it is going to be very close.”