What’s Next For Oakland Following the Successful Recall Of Mayor Sheng Thao

Oakland has been thrown into chaos in the last few days. Both Mayor Sheng Thao and Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price have been recalled, with no clear picture on who will be replacing them, who the candidates even are, or when things will return to normal for one of California’s largest cities.

Thao’s road here has been especially rocky. After narrowly defeating fellow Councilmember Loren Taylor in 2022, Thao went on to have a hard time addressing crime and public safety concerns, as well as struggling to deal with homeless issues. Her controversy around the firing of the police chief LeRonne Armstrong, and her failure to keep the Oakland Athletics from relocating to Las Vegas played a part. Also not so great was the FBI raid on her home, and her subsequent outburst. While a recall election was only iffy at that time last year, the FBI action spurred more people to put the recall on the election.

She soon became the first Mayor in Oakland history to face a recall election, with early polls not looking too good for her. By August, calls for her to resign grew, while polls showed that more and more in Oakland supported her recall. A poll that came out showed that she had a 69% disapproval rating, with 56% of Oakland voters supporting her recall. In the next few months, support for her recall remained high. All the while, Thao fought tooth and nail against the recall, saying in response to the recall effort “I have the best job in the world. That’s because every day I have a chance to fight for a safer, more affordable, and more prosperous Oakland. I ask all Oaklanders to help me achieve that vision with hope and collaboration and push aside fear and division. Let’s bring our community together to fight for the City we love.”

Only days before the election, Thao’s efforts to stave off the recall eroded further, with former Mayor Libby Schaaf coming out against her and Athletics fans organizing once again to get her out. On election night, only a fraction of the amount of votes in Oakland were counted, but they showed that the recall was winning by over a 60% margin. On the Thursday after election day, the race stood at 31,838 yes votes and 17,002 no votes with about 40% in.

While Thao and supporters held out hope, on Friday all the votes were tallied. According to the results, 61,047 voted to recall her, with 38,071 voting not to. This was a huge 61.5% to 38.5% gap, similar to what DA Price had in her own ousting. As a result, Thao conceded on Friday and is set to leave the office soon. In a message over the weekend, Thao said “It was my goal to make Oakland safer, cleaner, and more vibrant. And I am proud of what we accomplished together. We brought crime down dramatically across the board with a historic 35% reduction in homicides. For the first time in over a decade, Oakland went over a month without a single murder. Our work literally saved lives.”

Thao, Price ousted

So, what now? Well, first off, Thao will leave office once the election is certified – by December 17th at the latest. After that an interim Mayor will come in. Normally this is the City Council President, in this case, being Councilwoman Nikki Fortunato Bas, who would serve until a special election next year. But, with Bas currently in an Alameda County Supervisor race that has yet to be called, the options grow weirder. If she wins, the Council will have to appoint a new president to take on the interim Mayor role. And for any City Council members hoping to run for Mayor in the special election next year, that means an incumbency bonus.

As for next years’ election, many have already thrown their hat into the ring, including now former Councilman Taylor, who is still upset over his close loss two years ago. On Saturday, he gave a speech saying he intends to run next year, saying that “Oaklanders have spoken with a very strong voice regarding what they need from city leadership, and they clearly have not been getting it from the current administration. The same commitment I have to the city I’m from that drove me to run in 2022 is what’s compelling me to step up in the special election once the results are certified.”

Currently, the full field of candidates isn’t known, with more lawmakers from the city likely to enter the race in the coming weeks. But, in the meantime, with a Mayor and DA now on the way out, Oakland is lost, and likely will remain that way for some time as a result.

“Oakland is going to have another rough patch ahead,” explained Alameda County pollster Nathan Martin to the Globe on Monday. “They got Thao and Price out, but there is no real clear path. Oakland how it was last week is going to look radically different a year from now. People are happy they’re gone, but the transition plans are a bit messy. Plus, whoever goes in will inherit all the problems the city has now, from budget issues to crime to Coliseum plans. It’s going to be a crazy time for Oakland.”

Election certification and Thao leaving office are to occur next month.