Republican Stan Ellis Wins Bakersfield-Area Assembly District Special Election

Businessman Stan Ellis (R) declared victory in the Assembly 32nd district special election on Wednesday, with Huntington Beach City Councilman and former Huntington Beach Mayor Tony Strickland (R) currently out ahead in first place by a 15 point margin in the Senate 36th District special election.

The Tulare County and Kern County-centric Assembly 32nd district race has been an open seat since May 2024, when then-Assemblyman Vince Fong won a special Congressional election. A largely Republican region, much of the early race only featured Ellis as a major candidate. Despite having no previous political experience, Ellis won the support of dozens of lawmakers, including Fong, Congressman David Valadao (R-CA), and Senator Sharon Grove (R-Bakersfield). While Bakersfield College Professor Chris Cruz-Boone (D), Social worker William Brown Jr. (L), and El Tejon School Board member Holli Willibey (R) all entered the race later in 2024, Ellis was far ahead in local polls.

As another Republican, Willibey, is in the race, along with Cruz-Boone being the sole Democrat in it, some political experts thought that the race could end in a run-off. Early results on Tuesday night showed that Ellis wasn’t too much above the 51% needed to avoid a run-off. However, the turnout proved to be much in Ellis’ favor as predicted, leading him to victory on Wednesday after another vote tally. The CAGOP even declared him the winner on Tuesday night since he was so far ahead.

With 95% of the vote in as of mid-day Wednesday, Ellis has been declared the victor with 32,337 votes, or 63.9% of the total vote. In a distant second was Cruz Boone with 14,741 votes, or 29.1% of the total vote. Willibey and Brown, meanwhile, were 3rd and 4th with 2,306 votes and 1,191 votes respectively, or 4.6% and 2.4% of the vote.

“I am truly honored and humbled by the overwhelming support,” said Ellis in a victory speech on Wednesday “This victory is a clear message that our communities want common-sense leadership that puts working families and our future first. From day one, my campaign has been about fighting for less regulation, safer communities, and economic opportunity—that fight begins now. This victory would not have been possible without your dedication and belief in this campaign.

“A special thank you to my friend, Congressman Vince Fong, for his years of dedicated service to our district. He has set a strong foundation, and I look forward to building upon his work to ensure the Central Valley continues to thrive.”

Congressman Fong would later send his own message of congratulations to Ellis.

“Congratulations to my friend Stan Ellis for his special election victory tonight,” said Fong on X. “He will be a tremendous advocate for our community in Sacramento. I look forward to working with Assemblyman-elect Ellis on the critical needs of the Central Valley so our region can continue to grow and thrive.”

“I am thrilled to congratulate Assemblyman-elect Stan Ellis on his victory tonight in Assembly District 32,” added CAGOP Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson in a statement. “As a farmer, an entrepreneur and a valued community member, Assemblyman-elect Ellis will be a staunch advocate for the needs of the Central Valley when he reports to Sacramento. His ability to evaluate and tackle complex issues is going to be an asset as he joins the Assembly Republican Caucus to take on California’s affordability crisis, rampant homelessness, failing schools and inadequate water storage.”

On the threshold of a run-off in Orange County

Meanwhile, the Orange County-based Senate 36th District special election is still technically up in the air. Unlike the 32nd District election, candidates received much less time to plan as the seat only became vacant in November when now-former Senator Janet Nguyen was elected back to the Orange County Board of Supervisors.

While Strickland maintained a large lead up to Tuesday’s election, Attorney and 2024 Assembly candidate Jimmy Pham (D), Disability rights advocate Julie Diep (D), and broker and 2024 Congressional candidate John Briscoe (R) were all right behind him. Pham in particular came in with a large bloc of support left over from his failed Congressional run last year. And, unlike the 32nd District, no winner was declared Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

However, it is very close for an outright Strickland win. With 95% of the vote in as of mid-day Wednesday, Strickland is ahead with 66,548 votes, or 51.1% of the vote. While this is above the needed 51% threshold to avoid a run-off, votes are still being counted and the second place finisher could still squeak in. Currently in second place is Pham with 35,199 votes, or 27%. The other two candidates also ended with fairly strong runs, with Diep at 18,972 votes or 14.6%, and Briscoe with 9,491 votes, or 7.3%.

Despite not winning outright, Strickland remained confident on Wednesday.

“The voters of this district had a choice between my campaign to cut taxes, combat crime and stand up to the walking disaster known as Gavin Newsom — or candidates who support more of the same failed policies that are driving families out of California,” said Strickland early on Wednesday. “Tonight’s results speak for themselves. Voters want real change and real leadership.”

Democrats, meanwhile, pushed Pham as the run-off candidate on Tuesday night despite the final result not yet being known.

“It looks like Jimmy Pham will be in a runoff in this Republican district,” added Orange County Democratic Party Chairwoman Florice Hoffman.

The Assembly win by Ellis on Tuesday, as well as the likely Senate win by Strickland, only further added onto the latest string of California Republican Party successes across the state. In November, Republicans managed to flip Assembly seats for the first time in a Presidential election year since 1992 and in the Senate, the state saw the first presidential year Senate seat flip since 1980. They gained 3 seats in the legislature in November, and now in February, they managed to keep one open seat within the party fold and will likely keep the other as well should voting trends hold.

“The districts were largely Republican, but victories are victories,” explained election advisor Sal Yount to the Globe on Wednesday. “The California comeback continues for the GOP.”