Is California a Failed State?

Californian’s often cite the fact that if the state were its own country, it would be the fifth richest nation in the world.

Gov. Gavin Newsom regularly takes this concept to the extreme, only recently saying the “California is where the future is the day before tomorrow.”  Or “Tomorrow began yesterday in California.”  Or “In California, yesterday was the day after tomorrow.”  Or “The future of yesterday is tomorrow’s today.” Or some such nonsense (by the way, I made up the quotes but they do very Gavin, don’t they?  Period.. Full stop.)

So let’s take Gavin at his indecipherable words and look at California through the lens (while keeping the puck moving forward) as if it were a country.

Would it be a successful country or what is known as a failed state?

Turns out it is neither, but guess which way it is trending.  

Haiti, Somalia, Afghanistan, and Libya are all failed states – they do not have governments to speak of, they cannot provide basic security to their people, their economies, if they exist at all, are black market, etc. Recently, the Haitian prime minister resigned because he couldn’t get back into the country, in part because roving gangs control the airports, amongst other tihngs like the cities, the roads, etc.

And if you remember the movie “Black Hawk Down,” you have a good idea of a failed state.

Also, Lebanon and South Africa could very soon join their ranks.

What, technically, though is a failed state?  The general description, as set by groups like the Failed State Index (FSI), is pretty clear:

A failed state is a state that has lost its ability to fulfill fundamental security and development functions, lacking effective control over its territory and borders. Common characteristics of a failed state include a government incapable of tax collection, law enforcement, security assurance, territorial control, political or civil office staffing, and infrastructure maintenance. When this happens, widespread corruption and criminality, the intervention of state and non-state actors, the appearance of refugees and the involuntary movement of populations, sharp economic decline, and military intervention from both within and outside the state are much more likely to occur.

And what are those judgements based on?  A number of different characteristics are taken into consideration.  For example,  here’s a bullet list of key areas to watch:

Social indicators: 

• Demographic pressures
• Refugees or internally displaced persons
• Group grievance
• Human flight and brain drain

Economic indicators: 

• Uneven economic development
• Poverty and economic decline

Political and military indicators: 

• State legitimacy
• Public services
• Human rights and rule of law
• Security apparatus
• Factionalized elites
• External intervention

There do appear to be a few things missing from the list, though, including infrastructure, education, and health care.

So let’s take it from there – how would California stack up (admittedly subjectively) in the failed states, um, competition?

Demographic pressures:

That’s pretty easy – the state is losing population. Specifically, it is losing people in one of the most crucial demographic group: middle/upper middle class taxpayers/business owners, etc.  The state is also getting older, which means further pressure on social security net programs and health care resources with fewer people of prime working age to pay for such programs.

It is true that  – with the situation at the border and illegals now seeming to prefer California rather than Texas as a crossing point – the state could make up for some of the population loss.  However, illegal border crossers will, again, put more pressure  on health care and government service programs.

In other words, an already beleaguered middle class is being decimated leaving the state headed very soon to be a three class state: very rich, poor, and government workers.

Refugees:

Yes – California has them and is paying for them. Simply change the term from “illegal aliens” to refugees and the point is made.  It is also possible to categorize the people leaving the state as “internally displaced persons,” so California qualifies again.

Group Grievance:

Yes. In  fact, California has multiple aggrieved groups, and, surprisingly, they are across the political spectrum. Towards the right, you have groups furious about the state of the state, while on the left you have dozens of different groups and sub-groups (these groups get media coverage, unlike the aforementioned folks) that are making demands, building up power bases, cornering certain job markets, and in general constantly bitching about how evil California is as they try to take over even more completely.

The term “group grievance” is most likely meant – in other contexts – as significantly oppressed minorities thinking about a revolution. That is also occurring in California but with far lesser intensity.

Human Flight and Brain Drain:

See above.  While “brain drain” may not be terribly massive in a net (rather than gross) way with Silicon Valley tech immigration, “human flight” is happening and a growing concern.

Uneven Economic Development:

Without a doubt. California has the largest gap between high and low income wages and worth and what development is occurring is not evenly spread across the state.  Despite the promise of high speed rail Apple did not put its HQ in Madera.  Coastal counties are still the drivers of the state’s economy, with inland areas rather consistently being left out in the cold.

Poverty and Economic Decline: 

California has the highest unemployment in the nation and the most welfare cases and this one is not only gross but also proportionally – with 13% of the population of the country, the state has about 30% of the welfare cases.

A massive homeless population, skyrocketing cost of living problems, gasoline and electricity far far above national averages, and home ownership being even possible for only 20% of the residents all point to the state’s economic decline.

State Legitimacy:

At its core, of course California is a legitimate state.  However, its government is viewed by many as so out of touch, so inbred, so dirty, so entrenched, and so thoroughly corrupted by the lobbyists and donors that it may as well be considered illegitimate if you do not have direct access, deep pockets, and malleable ethics.

If the point of the state – any state – to be considered legitimate is to serve its people then the arrow moves closer and closer to empty.

Public Services:

Massive and incredibly poorly delivered.  The state has a program and/or regulation for practically everything but, for some reason, it tends not to do anything right.  The EDD, social workers in charge of domestic issues, environmental regulators (see Klamath,) etc. are all examples of programs that  miserably fail to produce results anywhere near what is necessary, let alone expected and acceptable.

Human Rights and Rule of Law:

With woke prosecutors around the state, the rule of law is under threat or, more accurately, seen as an impediment to true justice.  Hence the massive increase in crime, the smash and grab festivals, defund the police movements, the refusal to charge anyone with a misdemeanor crime, and, in places, the no-cash bail system that allows felons to re-offend within a few hours of being arrested.

As to human rights, one of the most basic – at least in America – is the right to free speech.  Would one say a state is on the right track if it tried to gag doctors – under pain of losing their license – from talking openly with their patients about covid?  No, you would not.

Security Apparatus:  

Quite available, if you have enough money.  If you are unable, like most, to pay for private security then you are on your own.

Is it true that this category most likely references thought police, step out of line and get whacked etc. type issues – think the Tonton Macoutes  in Haiti, the Gestapo in Germany and beyond, etc. – and that type of problem does not exist.  However, the pandemic and aggressive woke culture – both of which involve(d) “ratting” on your neighbors in order to placate the state – or ingratiate oneself to said state – is more prevalent that it once was.

Oh, and 480 new cameras in Oakland and its environs to “assist” law enforcement.

Factionalized Elites:

California does not suffer that problem; in fact it suffers from the lockstep unity of the elites promoting a single political philosophy that just happens to make them even more secure in their status.

External Intervention:

China – let’s just leave it that.

Infrastructure:

Haphazard, crumbling, poorly planned, poorly maintained, and what is being built new is absurd.

The billions being spent on high speed rail could go quite far in repairing and expanding other infrastructure need and even when the state has the money on hand – as they do for reservoir construction – they refuse to spend it.  

As for the electricity infrastructure – one of the reasons South Africa is tilting towards failed state status is that it cannot keep the power on – and California is dangerously close to the edge. Unlike other states, California must issue warnings of potential blackouts, either because the grid is over-stressed or there is simply not enough juice.

This problem is serious now; as the state pushes for everything to be electrified in the near future while doing little or nothing to ensure grid stability and increasing power generation, the problem will become exponentially worse. Especially considering the generation projects on the board are wind and/or solar – very expensive and definitionally unreliable.

In other words, the admonishments  to buy an electric car followed by a warnings not to plug it in at certain times of the day will increase in frequency.

Education:

California still has some great universities, both public and private. But below that level?  Private yes, public pretty much no, they do not provide a good education. 

Student spending leads the nation – student test scores are among the lowest in the nation.

California does not have an education system – it has a jobs creation system for administrators, teachers, and tri-gender guidance counselors.

Health Care: 

 A massive bureaucracy that is not very good at helping people in need and terrible at properly paying doctors called Medi-Cal does exist, private insurers have yet to flee the state, and there are some great hospitals.  But the public health in the state proved itself to psychotically lacking during the pandemic and does not appear to be learning any lessons from the experience.

Looking through each of the topics, two things are clear.

In comparison – and pretty much on its own – California is not a failed state.  There are gang members but they’re not shutting down airports. Gavin Newsom hasn’t ordered a throne, leaving his wife to the state movie-grifty thing. Technically there is a two-party electoral system. There is a respect for human rights – for some people, at least. The rich only need some – not blanket -security assistance.

So on a one to ten scale – with 1 being Norway and 10 being Haiti – where would California fit?

Realistically, because it has every problem but in no sector failed as seriously as the basket-case countries, a 5-ish may be in order…at least for now.

Not too long ago, California’s rating would have been an easy 1 – Norway with palm trees, if you will.

That is no longer the case, leaving two questions – can the state gather itself before things get even worse or should we all start picking out our gang colors?