The Unusual State Of Electric Cars In California

California is at a weird spot in 2024 when it comes to electric cars. On one hand, the California Energy Commission just released a report showing that zero-emission vehicles shot up 1022% between 2013 and 2023. They particularly noted that sales went from 150,000 a year to 450,000 between 2020 and 2023 after a few years of stagnated sales.

The CEC pointed to Governor Gavin Newsom’s executive order in 2020 that directed that gas powered cars would no longer be sold in the state beginning in 2035. A CEC report last year finding that 25% of all new cars sales in California are electric only furthered their point that their popularity is growing rapidly.

California ZEV sales have grown a whopping 1000%+ in the last decade — and more were sold last year than ever before.

The “demise of ZEVs” is a fossil fuels industry-to-Fox News talking point. pic.twitter.com/XaOf9HXID8

— Governor Newsom Press Office (@GovPressOffice) February 21, 2024

However, that recent CEC report on the 1022% also has odd timing as it is clear that electric car sales are really starting to slow down – again. In particular, electric car sales dipped for the first time in a decade in the final quarter of 2023. According to the California New Car Dealers Association, the sale of electric vehicles did in fact continue surging in the first half of 2023. However, by the third quarter, sales crested. And in the 4th quarter of 2023, the number of new ZEV cars sold for the final three months of the year was only 89,933, a drop of 10.2%.

The CEC could still report further growth thanks to really strong early 2023 sales. But with the trend now going downwards, 2024 will be the year to see if that was just a fluke or if it is part of a larger trend.

The California New Car Dealers Association gave numerous reasons in their report a few weeks ago saying, “There’s no survey to prove it, but there’s plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest liberal-leaning California car buyers are done with Elon Musk’s abrasive personality and his stands on political issues.”

Both Fox News and the LA Times stated, “Undependable public chargers, high prices, confusing government incentives and “controversial pronouncements” from Tesla CEO Elon Musk” were to blame.

Electric cars in California

While there have been some steps to fix some of these issues, such as California continuing to build a network of charging stations for cars, a preference for gas-powered cars remains in California. Not out of malice or being against environmental policies, but because of reliability and practicality.

“There are long stretches of California out there where you can run out of gas or power,” explained Veronica Deer, an auto industry analyst who focuses on the electric market, to the Globe on Thursday. “Ask anyone going to Las Vegas from LA and missed filling up or charging at Baker and thinking they can make it to Primm. Getting emergency gas is easier than trying to get the car charged when stuck out there.”

“There are also concerns about battery life. Batteries can wind down pretty badly over time, and in colder areas, like in the mountains or Northern parts of the state, cold weather drains them fast. For Californians, using the car for short trips or to and from work and then charging overnight makes sense, but electric isn’t for everybody. And that’s why so many people have not latched onto this just yet. The state says that they are on pace to meet emissions goals, but if this downturn of electric car sales continues, they may be put in an awkward position.”

“That’s why the report came out when it did. The state seeing their first downturn in electric car sales in a decade was dominating headlines, so they combatted it with their 10 year growth story. That might work as a cover a little bit, but first quarter 2024 will really show where we are. They had their excuses for the last few quarters, but if continues to falter in the normally strong 1st quarter, and people stick with gas or hybrid options, we may see a plateau of electric sales once again. We’ve already seen rental car companies drop them because of how expensive they are to upkeep and low resale value. If more Californians show that they need a car more powerful or cheaper or longer lasting than an electric car, well, the state will be in an awkward position.”

First Quarter electric car sales data will be made available this spring.