Oil Refinery Plant (Photo: chuyuss/Shutterstock)
Potential Impact of Retail Gas Prices of the Chevron El Segundo Fire
Chevron’s El Segundo refinery provides around 20% of all gasoline supplies to California and 40% of jet fuel to Southern CA airports, military installations
By Michael Mische, October 6, 2025 6:35 am
Facts
California is facing a gasoline crisis and the potential for significant price increases and worse, supply shortages. (Note: the primary reason why gasoline prices are lower than expected is due to the 19% decrease in the cost of crude oil under the Trump Administration.)
Chevron El Segundo accounts for approximately 280,000 of the 290,000 barrels of refining capacity per day. In terms of gallons, that’s 11.2 to 12.2 million gallons of petroleum products a day. Chevron’s El Segundo refinery provides around 20% of all gasoline supplies to California and 40% of jet fuel to Southern California airports, including military installations. It’s a major producer and essential supplier. Based on California Department of Tax and Fee Administration (CDTFA) data, in 2024, California consumed approximately 36.2 million gallons of gasoline per day and around 252,000 gallons per day of aviation jet fuel. Notably, of all fuel segments, jet fuel is the fastest-growing product category in California.
Complicating the impact of the Chevron fire is the issue of the announced refinery voluntary shutdowns. Two major refineries in California, Phillips 66 and Valero, are ceasing refining and gasoline production with almost immediate effect. And this is where it gets a bit more complex.
Chevron Fire
As of this writing, I do not know the extent of damage to the Chevron refinery. The Chevron fire occurred on the night of October 2. Phillips 66, in SoCal, received its last oil shipment on September 30 and will cease all petroleum production on October 16. The Phillips refinery processed around 139,000 barrels of crude a day, or 5.8 million gallons. Assuming Chevron is shut down for the month of October, total California refinery capacity, inclusive of the loss of Phillips 66 and Chevron, will be down by 360,000 barrels per day for around 14 days. To put that in perspective, that’s about 23% of the state’s entire 2024 daily production capacity. By April 2026, California is expected to lose another 145,000 barrels of refining capacity per day with the closure of Valero’s Benecia refinery complex. True, the “market” will compensate for the loss through other suppliers, but the question remains, “At what cost for the consumer?” While all this is happening, California refiners are preparing for planned shutdowns for maintenance and repairs and are readying to switch to the winter blend fuel requirement. Adding to their costs are the newly passed Cap & Trade provisions, which, as the California Legislative Office has characterized as being “similar to a tax” and noted that refiners “have passed most of these compliance costs on to consumers…in the form of higher prices, such as for gasoline and diesel fuel.”
In an October 4 statement, Chevron announced that “it will be making operational adjustments to its 285,000 barrel-per-day El Segundo refinery to meet Southern California’s fuel demands after a large fire erupted on Thursday night at the refinery.” No other details were provided.
Impact on Consumer and Aviation Fuel Prices
There will be an impact on prices for both gasoline and aviation fuels. The primary concern is “how long will Chevron be down?” The longer the duration, the greater the impact and the higher the price of gasoline will be for the hard-working CA consumer. Alarmingly, but not surprisingly, neither Gavin Newsom nor the CEC has attempted to estimate the impact on consumer prices; however, Goldman Sachs has issued a warning.
Here are my estimates as to possible price increases. The estimates below are based on the current public information available as of 10/5 and represent the potential impact on retail pump prices as attributed solely to the Chevron refinery fire. We can expect significantly greater prices when all factors, such as the closure of two major refineries and the potential loss of a major pipeline, are also considered.
Low Severity- Short term: 10/6 to 10/31: $0.03 to $0.08 a gallon increase
High Severity- Short Term 10/6 to 10/31: $0.05 to $0.13 a gallon increase
High Severity- Long Term (10/31 to 12/31-25): $0.15 to $0.23+ a gallon increase
For additional information, please see my research at the below links:
- Mische. “Ensuring California’s Gasoline Security for the 21st Century.” (5/5/25). https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CVsBHQ0s4FX57xQD2iy0ZD1V_MlKJMZX/view?pli=1
- Mische. “A Study of California Gasoline Prices.” (3/16/25). https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YK_IxHVQokM6-fMXhTs9fmW2ZW0zdhuj/view
- Mische. “Brace for Impact. California Gasoline Prices to Increase in 2025.” (11/11/24). https://drive.google.com/file/d/1J9aNp1NPSzsNAEE9b4b6aUtYFoHiZtIm/view
- Mische. “Not All Oil is Created Equal: Understanding the Venezuelan Petrostate.” (9/9/24). https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wq-EX-19ztzgkRaqRfTNuCbSKmZpHnni/view
Please direct any questions to:
Prof. Michael A. Mische, mische@marshall.usc.edu
RELATED ARTICLES
-
-
November 15, 2024 -
Another reason Donald Trump failed California by not haulting the now commenced dismantling of the Phillips Wilmington/Carson refinery.
Trump is more concerned with issues related to Iran and Hamas than those critical to America.
Knowing CA and Newsom they would sue Trump and create another battle about it and some judge will come in and stop Trump from helping CA keep refineries.
Only one of Hair-gel Hitler Newsom’s bitchy media queens like Eyeinthesky would try to blame the closing of the refinery complex in Wilmington and Carson on President Trump which was announced in October 2024 when brain dead puppet Biden was president. Hair-gel Hitler Newsom and the criminal Democrat thug mafia in the legislature have done absolutely NOTHING to stop the closing of the refinery and they’ve done everything they can to close it along with the remaining California refineries.
Hair-gel Hitler Newsom and the criminal Democrat thug mafia in the legislature are more concerned about protecting their illegal alien hordes and their Antifa/BLM/Transtifa violent thugs.
Now run along bitchy queen.
BTW, the failing Trump administration is reinstating the Obama created DACA program. Remember how Donald railed against DACA? Well guess what? it’s is back.
And forget not Donald Trump is the self professed king 👑 of the COVID vax TOO!
Now run along and get your shots. You’ll please both Donald and Gavin.
Wrong again bitchy queen. The Trump administration moved to rescind the DACA program in September 2017, ending new applications and initiating a phase-out of the Obama-era initiative but multiple court rulings have blocked the full termination of the program. As of late September 2025, the Trump administration has been compelled by court filings to prepare for the reinstatement of new applications under the DACA program. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit upheld a lower court’s finding that DACA is unlawful but limited the scope of the injunction to Texas only. This partial ruling opened the door for the program to potentially resume nationwide except in Texas pending further judicial review.
Now run along bitchy queen and quit spewing fake news.
BTW bitchy queen Eyeinthesky, it was Hair-gel Hitler Newsom and the rest of your criminal Democrat thug masters who mandated shots and boosters. Now run along and get your boosters.
WRONG AGAIN
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/daca-applications-immigration-officials/
WRONG! Obviously you didn’t even bother to read the article which clearly states that “The government’s plan is designed to comply with an order from the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals in January that upheld Hanen’s finding that the DACA program is unlawful. While the 5th Circuit found that a Biden administration regulation to codify DACA violated U.S. immigration law, the appeals court narrowed the ruling’s impact, making it applicable only in Texas, the state spearheading the Republican-led lawsuit against the program. The appellate court also paused its ruling as it relates to existing DACA beneficiaries. To comply with that order, the Trump administration said it intends to process initial DACA requests once Hanen issues an order dictating the next steps in the case.”
You’re just as much of a dimwit as Hair-gel Hitler Newsom!
While the Trump administration is trying to deport illegal aliens, your master Hair-gel Hitler Newsom and your criminal Democrat thug masters are frantic to keep them in California. They’ve turned California into 3rd world illegal alien sanctuary hellhole spending billions of taxpayer dollars on them. The human trafficking and drug smuggling that goes with illegal immigration must be very profitable for them.
LOL TJ – amazing
as long as you get your news from CBS, you carry absolutely zero credibility anywhere else.
BTW, your views are very twisted and/or false just like the discredited MSM.
So Trump is supposed to save Californians from Nazi Newsom and the fascist Commucrats?
How about voting for Republicans in the first place, so we don’t have to be saved?
you sure seem to know alot of things that are not true.
So glad to see this excellent information from trusted Prof Michael Mische in the wake of the El Segundo Chevron refinery fire, first presented as an explosion described by people in the area as “sounding like our neighborhood had been nuked,” and as “a fireball that could be seen and heard for miles.” Thank goodness no one was injured or killed, and the refinery was not destroyed as observers may have at first thought. When the dust settled the focus was then on how much car and jet fuel prices would be affected, also very important given the sorry state of our state and its now shut-down of multiple refineries forced to do so because of CA governor, legislature, bureaucrat longstanding and punishing regulatory policies.
Mischke quote: “Alarmingly, but not surprisingly, neither Gavin Newsom nor the CEC has attempted to estimate the impact on consumer prices; however, Goldman Sachs has issued a warning.”
This alarming, all right —– that an assessment of this situation is not found in a live Gov press conference or some such urgent event meant to assuage public tensions, about the explosion itself OR its costly fallout for all state residents, which is now of course a fantasy that simply doesn’t happen anymore and hasn’t for decades.
It’s not news to readers here but it appears CA ‘leadership’ is completely out to lunch now. We’ll see if what needs to happen can be allowed to happen to rectify this govt-created mess and whether it can happen to provide for the state’s energy needs in a timely way so that we are not impoverished further by costs and subjected to serious supply issues thanks to our otherwise-engaged, feckless, narcissistic, and recklessly trash-talking Worst Governor Ever, Gavin Newsom.
I was glad to hear just now Prof Mische’s voice commenting on this even in a news blurb on KABC radio and that his point of view is being covered. The clip was very short but he said that in a circumstance like this one the refinery should probably be shut down. Because a shutdown aligns with Newsom’s and state special interests (greenies and others), what Mische thinks should happen gives weight to the reasonable suspicion by some of us that the fire and explosion may have been some kind of purposeful sabotage. Guess we’ll wait and see if any further info comes out to support this.
*EDIT: “…commenting on this EVENT…”
sigh
It is a good thing that residents have no idea what a nuke sounds like.
So, we can discount those emotional morons.
This is good timing for Newsom to undo any benefit of his fake oil drilling order. This smells like eco-terrorism sponsored by the state to further Newscum’s oil refinery shut down agenda.
No kidding, CW. Because Gavin’s always full of it, anyone who bets on Gavin being full of it is always going to win the bet.