52% Of Californians Disapprove Of Biden In Latest Poll

A new UC California Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) poll released earlier this week found that President Joe Biden’s popularity has severely declined in California, with 52% of Californians now disapproving of the president and only 44% approving of his performance.

Initially, President Biden enjoyed widespread support following his victory over then-President Donald Trump in the 2020 election. An April 2021 poll found 62% approval in the Golden State and only 34% disapproving. However, his approval ratings quickly slipped, falling to 59% by July 2021, and by February 2022, falling below 50% for the first time to 47% approval and 48% disapproval. Biden managed to rebound somewhat, spending the rest of 2022 and most of 2023 with support ranging from the high 40s to the mid50s in term of percentages. Disapproval, meanwhile, consistently stayed in the 40s.

Nationally, Biden also fell fairly quickly. Nationally, Biden spent his honeymoon period with an aggregate approval percentage in the mid 50s and a disapproval percentage in the high 30s. But, in August 2021, things shifted significantly. His approval rating quickly fell and his disapproval rating shot up. In September 2021, his disapproval was at 47% with approval at 48%. Unlike California, from which he recovered somewhat to have a majority approving him again, Biden’s national approval rating never again went above his disapproval rating.

His nationwide disapproval rating reached 50% in November 2021. By June 2022 his approval dipped below 40% for the first time. While Biden did recover somewhat earlier this year, with his disapproval rating hovering just above 50% and his approval rating touching 40%, the rest of the year turned into a sort of malaise. As of November 10th, his aggregate nationwide approval rating sits at 38.7% while his disapproval rating is at 55.6%

Back in the California-only polls, his popularity in state has largely echoed national trends. In May of this year, Biden sat at 48% approval and 46% disapproval. But his popularity in state fell massively over the summer and fall, with the new poll finding 52% disapproving the president in October 2023, the first time it has ever gone above 50% in California. Meanwhile, only 44% approve of Biden’s performance, a new record low.

When broken down by demographics, it makes clear just how polarizing a president his is to Californians. Amongst Democrats, Biden enjoys a 69% approval rating while only garnering 27% disapproving him. In contrast, only 7% of Republicans approve of the job he is doing, with a whopping 91% disapproving of his performance. Third party voters almost exactly mirror the Democrat percentages, with 69% disapproving and 26% approving, while the critical independent, non-party voter group perfectly matches the current nationwide levels with 55% in disapproval and only 39% in approval.

By region, Biden is behind in all areas but two. In Los Angeles County he has a slim 48% approval-47% disapproval split, while in San Francisco he still enjoys a comfortable 56%-40% margin. By gender, Biden is losing to both females and males alike, with his longtime support amongst women finally falling this month to a 45% approval-50% disapproval tally.

Biden also is losing in all age groups except those 65 and older, where 60% of those Californians still support him as opposed to 40% disapproving. A big surprise came in the 18-29 and 30-39 demographics, where approval stayed well below 40%, showing growing skepticism amongst Millennial and Gen Z voters, similar to what happened to Governor Gavin Newsom in a recent poll. Finally, race-wise, Biden is also behind in every group except for the black vote, who actually kept Biden’s approval rating above 50% and even saw a small fall in those disapproving of his performance since May.

Biden quickly dropping in popularity in California

“While Californians who voted for Biden in 2020 generally view the President’s performance in a more positive light, significant proportions do not,” said the IGS. “This is true both with regard to his handling of major domestic issues like inflation and immigration but also his handling of the ongoing fight between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East. And, in  each case about four in ten of those who voted for Biden in 2020 disapprove of his performance in these areas.

“This is happening at a time when his likely challenger in the 2024 presidential election, former President Donald Trump, is widening an already huge lead over the Republican candidate field in the state’s March 2024 GOP presidential primary. The latest poll finds Trump to be the choice of 57% of likely voters for the Republican nomination in California’s March presidential primary election, while support for his next closest challenger, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, has declined to just 12%.

“These trends appear to be influencing voter preferences in next year’s November presidential election, as the poll finds Biden’s impressive 30-point 2020 election victory over Trump in California has now shrunk to just 15 points when the two are paired in a simulated Presidential election contest, 46% to 31%.”

Other experts told the Globe on Friday that, while Trump and other Republicans are still far below Biden in terms of overall popularity, Biden’s growing disapproval could make it a much closer election in 2024 than many people would think, with many Republican candidates in other races benefitting as a result.

“If Trump or whoever the GOP candidate ultimately is has a chance to embarrass Biden in the race, GOP voters in California will flock out,” added Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California. “More than that, as the polls show, moderate and unaffiliated voters may go for the GOP as well, even if it is by Biden-association. That means Congressional races and Senate races. In California, Senate still might be a bit of a reach, but we can really see it in House races. The Democrats are currently targeting a handful of close projected races throughout the state, but if Biden continues to show bad form, that negativity goes to other candidates of the same party.

“Biden is losing most demographics. I mean, this October poll showed that a majority of white voters now opposes him, in addition to Asians and Latinos. Those are the three biggest groups in the state. Along with that Newsom poll, the GOPs gameplan is becoming more and more clear. They need to appeal more to younger voters to capitalize on Democratic leaders not doing well there. They need to focus not just in swing areas but areas where they are doing better, including the Central Valley, the coast and even Los Angeles. And GOP candidates need to be a bit more moderate to really bring in undecided voters. Trump coming in is a bit of a wild card, as he could alienate a lot of voters but also solidify the base. But if they can do it right, we might see California continue to inch back to the right.

“If you’re a Democrat, this is something that is probably horrifying you. You can try and play it off, but right now, there is no denying that Biden is really bringing the party down in 2024. He has a year to turn the ship around, but that is really hard to do when he is stuck in a canal. He’s been a disappointment, and Democrats don’t know how to react.”

More polls on Biden’s popularity in California are to come in soon.