Arizona Becomes Ground Zero for National 2026 Strategy—Again

Arizona is again shaping up as a national political battleground in 2026, with competitive races, outsized outside spending, and intense interest in state-level electoral infrastructure. In the first days of 2026, multiple national political organizations have already publicly signaled (or operationalized) early spending and infrastructure plans that place Arizona on their short list. 

Why Arizona draws early national attention

Tight margins, rapid growth, and an electorate split among Republicans, Democrats, and independents define Arizona’s modern political profile. These are conditions that have repeatedly attracted national spending and field operations for decades. 

Fundraising patterns also highlight the state’s national prominence. A Brennan Center for Justice analysis published during the 2024 cycle estimated that 74% of Arizona congressional candidates’ contributions came from out-of-state or out-of-district donors—an indicator that Arizona races often become national proxy fights with donor networks far beyond the state’s borders. 

A national push to flip the Arizona Legislature

One of the clearest early-cycle signals is the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee’s (DLCC) decision to include Arizona in its 2026 target map and “invest early” strategy, as reported by CBS News, part of a broader $50 million national effort focused on competitive statehouse races. 

Arizona outlets have already framed this as a coordinated national effort to control the Legislature. AZPM reported in December that Democrats’ state legislative campaign arm put Arizona on its list of chambers it hopes to flip, tied to the $50 million investment plan. Arizona Mirror similarly reported Democrats’ stated objective of winning the Legislature in 2026, contextualizing the push as part of a national strategy and a continuation of recent cycles where control has been narrowly contested. 

The significance is structural: control of the Arizona Legislature affects budgets, election law, and policy on issues with national resonance (border security, education, energy development, and litigation posture). That combination makes Arizona an attractive “return on investment” target for national donors and committees seeking durable policy leverage.

Election administration and oversight becomes a national spending lane

Arizona is also a priority in the national contest over election administration, especially the secretary of state ecosystem that oversees statewide elections. The current system has drawn massive scrutiny following the irregularities in the 2022 election, which was presided over by then-Secretary of State and gubernatorial candidate Katie Hobbs, who certified her own hotly contested election.

The Democratic Association of Secretaries of State (DASS) announced plans to spend $40 million on competitive 2026 races as part of an effort to influence election oversight heading into the 2028 presidential cycle. (The organization’s plan and its framing of 2026 as a major investment cycle were also reported by the Associated Press in late 2025, reflecting the extent to which election administration itself has become a national political arena.)

Inside Arizona, election administration remains a high-scrutiny environment shaped by post-2020 controversies. For background, the Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting has published a summary noting that the 2021 Arizona Senate-commissioned review did not find fraud in Maricopa County’s 2020 results. At the federal level, congressional hearing materials, produced by the Democratic majority, also reflect that the audit contractor ultimately reported no evidence of widespread fraud in Maricopa County results. 

However, these findings have done little to silence vocal critics such as US Agency for Global Media CEO Kari Lake, particularly after reporting emerged in August implicating top ASU officials in securing a candidate-friendly Arizona PBS interview for Hobbs, while deliberately bypassing a planned debate with Lake.

Thank you, Charlie, for having me as the keynote speaker at AmFest after they stole Arizona’s 2022 election. You were very vocal as to what happened in Arizona.

I know you would be fighting for Election Reform if you were still here with us today.h pic.twitter.com/efOU8oTkiF

— Kari Lake (@KariLake) October 15, 2025

Separately, Arizona’s election rulemaking process continues moving in preparation for the 2026 cycle. The Arizona Secretary of State’s Office announced the submission of the 2025 Election Procedures Manual to the governor and attorney general for review. This administrative step drew major litigation and political attention in Arizona, with Republicans scoring a significant victory in August over Democrat Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, after a months-long legal battle, as reported by AZ Free News.

Over the last decade, we’ve seen Democrats use the Elections Procedures Manual as a tool to attempt to rewrite election law and undermine the security of our elections.

First it was Katie Hobbs, now it’s Adrian Fontes.

The Secretary of State’s is supposed to provide an EPM that… pic.twitter.com/IYps1pthWD

— Arizona Free Enterprise Club (@azfec) September 26, 2025

Conservative infrastructure: Arizona as a home base for field operations

Among conservative organizations, Arizona remains a hub for organizing and field experimentation. Turning Point USA’s footprint in Arizona, best exemplified by its Phoenix-area base and large-scale mobilization efforts, has been covered as a defining feature of the state’s modern campaign infrastructure.

In late December 2025, ABC15 reported that Turning Point USA, under the helm of Erika Kirk following the assassination of her husband Charlie Kirk, launched a new political action committee focused on Arizona, with the stated goal of influencing upcoming statewide elections, per FEC filings. Independent expenditures and committee activity for politically active groups can also be tracked through federal filings at the Federal Election Commission, including entries tied to Turning Point Action. 

The practical implication is that Arizona functions as both a battleground and a staging ground, a place where organizations build turnout models, ballot-chasing programs, and volunteer pipelines that can later be replicated in other states.

The legal front: Arizona as a recurring litigation venue

Arizona’s role as a national political testing ground extends into the courts. KJZZ reported in late 2025 that Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes had filed or joined dozens of lawsuits against the federal government since President Donald Trump returned to office, reflecting a broader pattern of multistate litigation used by both parties to shape national policy through the courts. 

Election-related litigation also continues to intersect with campaign politics. Politico reported in November 2025 that Mayes sought to revive aspects of the state’s case connected to 2020 election events, developments likely to remain salient during the 2026 cycle because they keep election administration and 2020-adjacent disputes in the public and legal arena. 

Money and disclosure: Arizona’s campaign-finance system as an early indicator

Because national attention brings national money, Arizona’s disclosure systems are frequently used by reporters to track early maneuvering. State campaign finance information is available through the Arizona Secretary of State’s campaign finance portal, and Arizona’s “Voters’ Right to Know Act” reporting framework requires disclosures for certain campaign media spending. The state’s SeeTheMoney database provides additional campaign finance access points for the public and the media. 

For federal races, the FEC election pages allow monitoring of receipts, independent expenditures, and reporting deadlines by district—helpful in identifying outside group involvement well before television ads begin. 

Historic pattern: why “early” matters in Arizona

Arizona’s recent cycles show that the state often becomes a national focus before voters fully tune in. That pattern is reinforced by:

• national donor dependence for candidate fundraising, 
• public committee strategies emphasizing early investments in statehouse power, 
• and a persistent election-administration spotlight that invites national groups to treat Arizona as a proving ground. 

In early 2026, the result is a familiar dynamic: Arizona is again positioned not simply as a state with competitive races, but as a state where national actors attempt to shape the battlefield—funding, rules, turnout operations, and litigation strategy—well ahead of November 2026.