California Will Lose at Least Two Seats in Congress After 2030

Despite a return to positive population growth, California will lose at least two (-2), and is at high risk of losing three (-3) seats in Congress, going from 52 to 49 after the census in 2030, and fourth overall since 2020. Here is where and why.

According to the American Redistricting Project and the latest U.S. Census estimates for 2024, California will lose three seats, for 2025 four seats after 2030. This follows previous estimates by the Brennan Center and Decision Desk HQ and then the most recent 5-year census estimates, projecting California losing four or five seats. All include the pandemic years of 2020 to 2022, which are likely outliers in the absence of another global catastrophe, such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Conversely the University of Virginia’sprojections through 2050 ignore these losses, and result in California losing only one seat.

Census reports California returning to positive growth and a state population of 39.4 million people. However, the California Department of Finance also consistently projects low to no growth through 2070. Even before the pandemic, growth was anemic, and if reapportionment happened today, California would already lose two seats.

I produced an “adjusted” 5-year trend, using the years 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 to isolate the pandemic and lockdowns. For California, the years before 2020 were positive, albeit barely and internally declining in some areas like Los Angeles County. The years 2022 and 2023 were negative, although not like the pandemic, and 2024 and 2025 were positive. By current Census estimates, California is barely apportioned the last 435th seat, which it is at very high risk of losing.

Gain

• Texas (+3)
• Florida (+2)
• Arizona (+1)
• Idaho (+1)
• Utah (+1)

Loss

• California (-2)
• Illinois (-1)
• Minnesota (-1)
• New York (-1)
• Oregon (-1)
• Pennsylvania (-1)
• Rhode Island (-1)

The apportionment formula and U.S. Census estimates are public and multiple organizations came up with the same projections. The California Governor’s Office has also been preparing and trying to shape the narrative that California has had positive growth for three years, even though Newsom has been governor for almost eight, and is directly responsible for the net and permanent losses. My projections are actually more favorable than most organizations because I include pre-pandemic years.

I then adapted methodology from the Rose Institute at Claremont and used Finance’s county projections, then incorporated city estimates. The attrition in some areas is enough that it is already possible to tell where seats will be cut.

The lost 52nd seat will be from the Bay, with losses over 241,000 since 2020. San Mateo County is currently represented by the majority of two seats, despite having the population of one. Santa Clara County is the epicenter for four seats, when it doesn’t justify three.

In 2023, then Mayor Sam Liccardo (D-San Jose) publicly discussed how he could move and run to replace either then Reps. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) or Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose). This is similar for current Mayor Matt Mahan (D-San Jose) who could run againstAssembly Speaker Robert Rivas (D-Hollister) to replace Lofgren.

The lost 51st seat will be from Los Angeles County, with losses over 300,000 since 2020, either in South or Southeast Los Angeles County, or the San Gabriel Valley. This reflects the concentration of economic activity on the Westside and collapse of industry at the end of the Cold War and trade with China since 2000. These regions have multiple minority-majority districts that, like the lost 40th Congressional District (2011-2021) have experienced interracial power conflicts, now every decade.

In 2012, then Reps. Janice Hahn (D-San Pedro) and Laura Richardson (D-Long Beach) were forced to run against each other. Richardson represented one of four historically Black Voting Rights Act districts in California and lost to Hahn. California’s black population now only supports one Black VRA district without racial gerrymandering.

Because of once in a generation seats in Congress, in Los Angeles County it is literally up or out, waiting for party elders to retire or expire. In 2016, Rep. Nanette Barragan (D-Hermosa Beach) was forced to move districts occupied by Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Torrance). In 2022 and 2024, Democrat candidate Will Rollins (D-Torrance) moved out of district to run against Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona), for a Riverside County district gerrymandered by California Democrats and Paul Mitchell. Similarly in 2025, Rep. Rep Robert Garcia (D-Long Beach) was a lead proponent of Proposition 50, and traded most of his dying district for a more stable gerrymandered district including Orange County. Decades of government failure in Los Angeles County that is metastasizing like cancer.

A lost 50th seat could be shared between Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego counties. The latter two may only support four districts each by 2030. Because of Californai Democrat gerrymandering and political disenfranchisement, this highly implies the lost seat will be Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano), and the district spanning Camp Pendleton between Orange County and San Diego. Additionally, because California is losing seats, the Central Valley and Inland Empire won’t gain representation in Congress despite its population growth, but will in the State Legislature – at the expense of the coast.

Most reapportionment and redistricting arguments are fixated on the Electoral College and White House or partisan majority in Congress. Texas and Florida will gain +3 and +2 respectively, and New York and Illinois will lose at least -1 each. More important is the loss of California political power, internal shifts within the state, and the underlying reasons why.

California has failed to solve any major public policy issue in 30 years, since the end of the Cold War. Unsurprisingly this is whengrowth slowed, stalled, and then stopped. Then Gov. Gavin Newsom’s China-style lockdowns (for you) devastated especially the Bay and Los Angeles. Everything from FAA passenger counts to Starbucks closures show permanent losses from the Bay and Los Angeles to inland and out-of-state.

This is why Gov. Gavin Newsom attending the birthday party of a lobbyist at the French Laundry and his China-style lockdowns still matter. Newsom destroyed California when schools didn’t reopen before Fall 2020. Newsom and California Democrats’ failed policies will haunt the state for decades. At the current rate California will lose at least one seat every decade through 2060, when it is surpassed by Texas, ironically a century after California itself overtook New York as the most populous state in the nation.