Hochman Leads Gascon

Wasting no time, the Nathan Hochman campaign conducted a poll at the end of March – about three weeks after the primary – and they seem to have found some very good news.

The poll, a survey of 817 Los Angeles County registered voters conducted by WPA Intelligence out of DC with a 3.4% margin for error, has Hochman ahead of incumbent George Gascon in the county District Attorney’s race by 21 points.

Specifically, Hochman receives 44% support, Gascon 23%, and 33% undecided.  While the undecided number is large, the Hochman campaign attributes that to simple name recognition – 86% of county resident have heard of Gascon, barely more than half have yet been introduced, as it were, to Hochman.

The poll also, menacingly for Gascon, shows that 60% of voters feel less safe than they did before Gascon was elected in 2020.  Only about 7% of country residents feel safer because of Gascon.

“This poll confirms what I have heard from the public for the past three years. They are tired of Gascon playing politics with public safety. Enough is enough,” Hochman said. “They want a DA who will enforce the law, keep them safe and end the dysfunction in the D.A.’s Office. They want a leader who will motivate, not demoralize, the over 750 highly skilled prosecutors in the District Attorney’s Office and the tens of thousands of law enforcement officers who work every day to pursue justice. I will be that District Attorney, that leader.”

The Gascon campaign did not reply to a request for comment.

Another problem for Gascon that, as with every other poll taken about the DA’s race so far, is the “favorability/unfavourability” question.  This time, Gascon has a favorable rating of only 18% compared to an unfavorable number of 47%  – that’s a massive 29 points underwater.

Hochman is viewed favorably by 20% of the population, unfavorably by 11%.  These numbers are low, most likely due to Hochman’s name recognition is 30 points less than Gascon’s.   They are still positive though.

The poll also asked, as a way to gauge Gascon’s support differently, if county residents would ever consider voting for Gascon no matter his opponent.  40% of respondents said they would vote for anyone to get Gascon out of office, while 20% said it didn’t matter who was running against him and that they would only vote for Gascon. The rest of the public seems to be either open to either candidate and/or undecided seven months from the November election.  It should be noted that – when they do eventually make a choice – in general, undecided voters tend to break for the challenger, not the incumbent.

The poll also shows Hochman with strong leads in the Latino and Asian communities, leads amongst Republicans and independents and only trailing Gascon by three points, 32% to 29%, amongst Democrats.

It what could even better news for Hochman, it appears – at least for now – the Gascon attempt to paint the erstwhile Republican – now “no party preference (independent” – as an evil Trumpy tool may not be working.

Gascon’s campaign will ignore his own record and will focus his campaign on calling Hochman a minion of Donald Trump.  Trump is not at all popular in California and the same strategy worked for Gavin Newsom during his recall. 

However, the poll “tested” versions of Gascon’s “Trumpian message” and found a simple rebuttal statement of being and independent and not ideologically extreme, on the part of Hochman actually increased his lead over Gascon to 50% to 29%.

“Gascon can’t run on his experience since he has never personally prosecuted or defended a criminal case. He can’t run on his record, because violent and property crime have risen substantially each year he’s been in office compared to before he took office,” Hochman said.  “So he’s left with trying to politicize the race and mislead the public about my beliefs, but that won’t work either.”