How the California FAIR Plan Turned into a Great Pumpkin Nightmare
The October surprise: a 35.8% average rate hike – up to 60% in the riskiest ZIP codes – set to hit renewals after April Fools’ Day 2026
By Marie Alvarado-Gil, October 30, 2025 1:32 pm
The Great Pumpkin’s annual ascent from the sincerest patch is always a spectacle—but the 2025 vintage comes with a non-festive twist: a 35.8% spike in “ride” fares, leaving homeowners clutching their candy bags and wailing, “I got a rock!” (And no, Linus, faith alone won’t cover the up-charge.)
As the leaves turn and jack-o’-lanterns flicker across California, October isn’t just about tricks, treats, and Snoopy doing his World War I flying ace impression. For rural families—especially in my Senate District 4—it’s when the line between “what happened” and “right now” gets blurrier than Charlie Brown’s ghost costume with the asymmetrical cut eyeholes.
Old promises we thought were set in stone pop up like Lucy pulling the football away again, only this time it’s your insurance bill.
In 1965, Los Angeles had riots and brush fires, and private insurance companies ran off faster than the kids when Violet offered “you blockhead” party invitations. So in 1968, the state put together the FAIR (Fair Access to Insurance Requirements) Plan—think of it as Linus’s blanket for people no one else would cover. It pooled a little money from every insurer to offer basic fire protection. No frills, no theft coverage, no “good vibes” liability—just enough to keep a roof over your head when the world was literally on fire.
It was meant for city blocks, not the wild foothills. For decades, it snoozed in the corner like Schroeder’s piano—barely noticed by rural families.
Fast-forward to 2025 and the sleepy blanket isn’t so cozy anymore. Wildfires rewrote the rules, and private companies bolted like the Peanuts gang when the lights go out at a Halloween party. State Farm, Allstate—they dropped millions of policies faster than Charlie Brown drops the football. By summer 2025, the FAIR Plan went from under 100,000 customers to 591,000—a 276% jump that turned a quiet sidekick into the star of a horror franchise.
My district is “Ground zero.” Nine counties in SD 4 rank in the state’s top ten for homes in the path of flames. In Calaveras and Tuolumne, FAIR Plan sign-ups doubled as insurers ghosted thousands. Premiums? Already twice the private market. It’s not growth—it’s the Peanuts version of Poltergeist: “They’re heeeere… and they brought a 35.8% rate hike!”January’s LA fires piled billions in claims onto the Plan’s $377 million piggy bank.
Officials are warning it’s “one bad fire season away from going bust.”
Consumer Watchdog’s Carmen Balber says survivors are “stuck in claims limbo” – like waiting for the Great Pumpkin that never shows. In remote Sierra towns, seniors are paying double for less coverage. It’s like trick-or-treating and getting a bill instead of candy.
And now, the October surprise: a 35.8% average rate hike (up to 60% in the riskiest ZIP codes), set to hit renewals after April Fools’ Day 2026. The San Francisco Chronicle mapped it out—half the customers face 40-55% jumps! It’s not an adjustment; it’s the moment in the movie when the ghost actually shows up behind Charlie Brown.
In Merced and Stanislaus, family farms are one premium spike away from foreclosure.
One farmer told me, “Communities won’t survive!”
This 35.8% specter isn’t just a rate hike—it’s the moment Lucy permanently keeps the football. Some will say we always knew that was coming, but we still held out hope for Charlie Brown.
Senate District 4 stands haunted when it comes to property insurance, but we’re going to keep fighting against these rate hikes and for a sustainable insurance market, because good grief, someone has to!
- How the California FAIR Plan Turned into a Great Pumpkin Nightmare - October 30, 2025
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Thank you!
Our generational farmers need to defended.
This current supermajority body of legislatures need to protect our farmland and bring more water to the ranchers and farmers!
It’s too bad that this VERY serious problem is being addressed by such a lighthearted article, as the underlying situation is DIRE.
And California insurance is being led by an UNQUALIFIED, FAIL-UPWARD Democrat whose only marketing pitch is his heritage and unusual sexual proclivities and preferences.
Thank you to the California Globe reporting team for calling out Lara’s wasteful global travels.
This unqualified individual literally is taking extended business-trip vacations while our neighborhoods are burning down….
It’s infuriating, and now thanks to Democrat policies, our FAIR plan premiums are going to skyrocket!!!
Between Prop 50 and this insurance premium hike, I am getting more and more convinced that we will be uprooting and moving to another state because this one is mismanaged by unqualified, stupid, virtue-signaling and corrupt Democrat politicians who are literally putting us at risk in this disaster prone state.
@CriticalDfence9, I hope you stick around and stay with us for the fight. We need people like you.
When is the insurance commissioner Lara going to be called out (or better yet recalled)? The rank corruption in this state is unbearable.
The FAIR Plan is a typical run government organization, poorly run. I know people on the FAIR plan, and they are paying over $20,000 a year. Even that doesn’t cover their entire insurance needs, so they have to buy supplemental insurance for another $5000 or more a year.
It was clever for Sen. Marie Alvarado-Gil to weave the It’s the “Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown” cartoon tale into her commentary on California’s FAIR plan which is managed by state government, but backed financially by a pool of the private insurers doing business in California. Unfortunately FAIR Plan policies have very expensive premiums and provide minimal coverage in comparison to private insurance plans.
Sen. Marie Alvarado-Gil claims that she’ll keep fighting rate hikes? However, this might be futile if insurers end up pulling out of the state because they’re unable to raise premiums to cover their potential losses? Is there a plan to create a sustainable insurance market for property owners who cannot obtain it through private insurers without saddling taxpayers with the astronomical costs of providing property insurance in disaster prone areas?
A life long Democrat, Marie Alvarado-Gil ran as a Democrat for California’s 4th State Senate district in the 2022 California State Senate election. She placed second in the top-two primary, with fellow Democrat Tim Robertson placing first. This guaranteed that the district, which is largely rural and tends to lean Republican, would be represented by a Democrat. Then in August 2024 Senator Alvarado-Gil switched from the Democratic to the Republican Party. Former Assemblymember Bill Essayli dubbed her as a RINO for her previous support of liberal priorities and for her endorsement of Kamala Harris in the 2024 United States presidential election.
What happened to that civil lawsuit that was filed by her former chief of staff, Chad Condit, who alleged that she subjected him to sexual harassment, discrimination, and retaliation during his employment? Condit claimed that Alvarado-Gil pressured him to perform oral sex while they traveled for work, framing it as a quid pro quo to protect his job. Wow, very tawdry stuff?
The lawsuit and countersuit are stll active but the legislature’s Workplace Conuct Unit said the allegations were ‘unfounded’.