Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics – the Politics of Crime

There have been howls of protests over President Donald Trump taking over the Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Police, bringing in the national guard and threatening national guard reinforcement to reduce crime in other major U.S. cities such as Chicago and San Francisco.

Los Angeles has already experienced the introduction of federal military personnel to bolster police activity during the intense immigration raids a few months ago. While a court has ruled that Trump’s action in Los Angeles was illegal, higher courts will decide.

Whether Trump indeed overstepped his bounds, in the court of public opinion he is likely to win on this issue.

Recall the oft-quoted phrase “lies, damn lies, and statistics,” frequently attributed to Mark Twain, although Twain cited Great Britain Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli as the source. The phrase pops up when statistics are used to support an issue, hoping to shed factual light on any debate, while opponents argue the statistics don’t reveal what is really happening. That phrase is appropriate when you look at the banter about crime in the U.S. because statistics ignore the deep-felt attitude of many people.

Leaders in Los Angeles, Chicago and Washington, D.C. say look at the facts – crime is down. In L.A. the homicide rate is expected to be at a 60-year low this year. Burglary, auto theft and robberies are also trending down.

But measure these percentage drops in the crime rate to the public perception that people don’t feel safe.

A recent Associated Press-NORC at the University of Chicago Poll found that two-thirds of the public believe crime is a major problem in the U.S. and 81% think it is a serious problem in big cities, that includes 68% of Democrats.

The public perception of crime is enforced by reporting of high-profile crimes like school shootings, local internet platforms like Next Door which contain reports of break-ins and stolen cars, stores locking up products to prevent shoplifting, and the actual data on criminal activity, which may be lower than previous years, but still seem staggering.

In Los Angeles in the first seven months of this year there have 6700 burglaries, 11000 car thefts and 4100 robberies. Top that with news reports of residents in Encino demanding better security against numerous break-ins in their neighborhood and the stories of Central American gangs coming to L.A. to carry out criminal activities.

It also doesn’t help with public attitudes when the California governor and Los Angeles mayor offer state and local police to be moved from their typical duties to protect former Vice-President Kamala Harris at taxpayer expense after her Secret Service protection was ended by the president even though the law allowed for the protection to end two months earlier. (The Los Angeles police announced this past weekend they were rescinding the Harris protection detail because of a backlash.)

With Trump claiming his maneuvers are to improve safety and security, he seems to have found the pulse of the American public. It didn’t hurt his cause when the Washington mayor said carjacking reduced 87% after the introduction of the troops. The AP-NORC poll found support for the way Trump is dealing with crime at 53%, higher than his dealing with all other major issues.

Whether Trump is performing unconstitutional actions will be decided by the courts. However, his high-profile campaign against crime will overwhelm opposition which rely on statistics and score political points for the president.