Levi Strauss heir Daniel Lurie Surges Ahead In Race for San Francisco Mayor

According to a new San Francisco Chronicle poll released on Monday, Levi’s heir and the founder and former CEO of the non-profit group Tipping Point Community Daniel Lurie is now in the lead, beating out Mayor London Breed 56% to 44% in a ranked choice vote.

Previous polls have shown a close race between former Mayor Mark Farrell and Breed. In the first poll released in February, Farrell was up by two points with 20% against Breed’s 18%, followed by Lurie with 16% and Supervisor Ahsha Safai with 8%. However, the addition of San Francisco Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin entering the race in April shook things up. Despite sinking in popularity polls, the controversial Peskin allowed Breed to move up in the next Mayoral polls.

Since then, it has been a huge back and forth between Farrell and Breed. Breed had a narrow lead in May polling, with Farrell retaking the lead in June, only for Breed to come back in July and August. According to the last two polls conducted in early August and mid-August, Breed was narrowly ahead of Farrell in a one on one matchup in the former, with Lurie actually outscoring Farrell in ranked choice, who ultimately lost to Breed in a 52% to 48% showing. Polls in September showed Farrell moving back up, but thanks to a late election push of new homeless initiatives and crackdowns on encampments, Breed was out to a narrow 51% lead by late September.

However, October has brought on a late surge by Lurie. Pouring $8 million into his campaign, Lurie outspent the other candidates in the past month. While initially making waves over issues like public safety and homelessness, Lurie has focused on the economy and small businesses as of late, as well as going directly after both Breed and Farrell. And with those two having been so focused on each other for most of the year so far, Lurie has come out strong. In a poll in early October, Lurie managed to defeat Breed in the final vote in the ranked choice system, 53% to 47%.

Lurie hasn’t been the only one moving up either. Peskin has managed to solidify his progressive base, with a recent across the board vote of all the candidates actually having him tie for first with Lurie with 25% each. In the same poll, Breed had only 18% of the vote and Farrell 15%.

Lurie, Peskin move on up

That led to Monday’s poll, which was also the first one to take into consideration Mayor Breed’s recent calls to halt the closure of over a dozen San Francisco city schools. According to the first two rounds of voting under the ranked choice system, Breed and Lurie were at a tie with 27% of the vote, with Peskin at 21-22%, Farrell at 16-17%, and Safai at 6-7%. By the third round, things began shifting, with Breed grabbing 30%, Lurie 28%, Peskin 24% and Farrell 18%.

However, the fourth round proved to be decisive, with much of Farrell’s support shifting to Lurie because of the the many similar stances and focus on change they have had. Lurie rocketed up to 41%, with Breed and Peskin remaining fairly stagnant at 33% and 26% respectively. By the time of the final vote, Breed managed to shore up some of Peskin’s progressive block, but it was nowhere near enough, with Lurie winning out 56% to 44%, well above the margin of error.

In all, it shows that Lurie’s turnaround has continued even more, grabbing many former Farrell supporters, as well as Breed being weakened by Peskin holding on to many of the more progressive voters in the city. Despite the recent polls, the race is still too close to call thanks to a still high number of undecided voters, many of whom consist of the roughly 8% of registered Republicans in the city. While Lurie and Farrell have been enticing to many of them, there are fears that many may just skip the race when going down ballot on election day.

“Lurie is now the favorite two weeks out of the election,” said political advisor Sharon Lee to the Globe on Tuesday. “He’s made a surprising amount of progress the last few months. He had been low-key compared to Breed and Farrell for many of the early months, and voters are now really responding to him. Polls are proving that.

“As for GOP voters in the city, yeah, they are a significant percentage of the undecided voters in these polls. And while the candidates will never admit it, policies on public safety, homelessness, and economics in the city have been highlighted for them. For Republican voters in such a Democratic city like San Francisco, it’s about picking the least worst candidate. Initially that had been Farrell, although many still haven’t forgave him for his support of removing the last gun store from the city. Now, Lurie seems to be the guy. They really like him cutting red tape for businesses.

“But they are just one of the undecided groups to go after. A lot of racial groups are having a hard time deciding now too, especially Asian-Americans. That’s why a lot of candidate events have been in those communities.

“At the end of the day, Lurie is now the man to beat. Expect Breed to make at least one more big play, and expect none of the candidates to let up.”

Final polls on the Mayoral election are due to come out at the end of the month.