Mayor Breed Introduces Plan To Bring 30,000 Residents, Students To Downtown By 2030

In her State of the City Address on Thursday, San Francisco Mayor London Breed unveiled a new measure to bring 30,000 more residents and students to downtown San Francisco by 2030.

Since the beginning of the decade, San Francisco’s downtown has been in a downward spiral. Work from home levels have remained high in the city since the COVID-19 pandemic. Tech companies have been eliminating tens of thousands of jobs, as well as hundreds of thousands across the Bay Area, in the past several years. More and more retail locations have been leaving the city. Office vacancy rates, which were near 0% in 2019, are at around 36% right now. Crime is high and a major concern. The budget deficit nears $800 million for the city.

For many residents, this scenario seems like deja vu, as this was almost exactly where San Francisco was at during the last state of the city address 13 months ago. Last year, Mayor Breed introduced the ‘Roadmap to Downtown San Francisco’s Future‘, promising a changed city in 2024. Since then while the crime rate has gotten a little better with a push for more law enforcement, areas like downtown have actually gotten worse with vacancy rates growing and stores continuing to leave. And that’s not to mention departments like San Francisco public schools which are now facing closures amid huge budget crunches.

On Thursday, Mayor Breed gave a new plan for attack: 30 by 30. By focusing on bringing a new UC campus downtown and attracting tech companies, particularly AI companies, to set up shop downtown, Breed wants 30,000 new residents and students downtown by 2030. With numbers like that, businesses to support them would grow around them, helping at least partially solve the office vacancy issue and stop the flow of businesses leaving the downtown area.

30 by 30

“Downtown has always been the economic engine that funds the services we care about, and its post-pandemic difficulties are the driving reason for the deficit we now face,” said Breed while speaking from Pier 27 on Thursday. “We are recruiting new businesses and continuing to see new leases signed led by AI, which alone is projected to add 12 million square feet of office space by 2030. And it won’t be AI alone. This is one of the most beautiful urban environments in the world, with an unrivaled pool of talent, of builders and dreamers, and the largest collection of deployable capital in the country.”

“We are working with thought leaders, business folks, and educational institutions to make Downtown a hub, a Center of Excellence. We’ve invited the University of California and Historically Black Colleges and Universities to join us, and some are coming as early as this summer. We’re working with other universities, and our existing anchors, UC Law, USF and San Francisco State University. Imagine that!  Students, professors, researchers, and employees walking from dorm room to classroom, from startup to conference space, from the Ferry Building to City Hall. Cross-pollinating ideas, cross-pollinating companies. We will be leading the way in AI, climate tech and biotech and things we haven’t even yet imagined. Housing, students, innovation – that’s our future!”

“I’m tired of the people who talk about San Francisco as if our troubles are inevitable and our successes a fluke. Our successes are not a fluke, and they’re not fleeting. They’re the product of years of hard work, collaboration, investment, creativity, and perseverance. They’re the output of thousands of people, in government and out, who believe in service not cynicism.”

In a post on X, Breed reiterated what she wants from 30 by 30 by noting “Downtown will always be an economic engine. AI alone is set to add 12 million square feet of office by 2030, but the future of Downtown must be more than jobs. It’s also about housing and students. By 2030, we’ll bring 30,000 new residents and students to Downtown.”

Downtown will always be an economic engine. AI alone is set to add 12 million square feet of office by 2030, but the future of Downtown must be more than jobs.

It’s also about housing and students. By 2030, we’ll bring 30,000 new residents and students to Downtown.

30 by 30. pic.twitter.com/RDv6e69xBy

— London Breed (@LondonBreed) March 7, 2024

Unlike last year, Mayor Breed has made several early efforts this year to make her newest plan possible. She pushed for the passage of Proposition E and Proposition F on Tuesday, with both passing by a wide margin. The props are set to help boost up law enforcement and increase the number of residents going into drug treatment. She’s also working with legislators in Sacramento to get CEQA exemptions to help spur downtown building projects to help bring in more residents.

However, planning experts told the Globe on Friday that Breed’s 30 by 30 plans are highly contingent on everything going right for her at the right time in the right way.

“2030 is a tight window,” said Stephan Hayes in a Globe interview. Hayes, a city planner who has been part of city revitalization efforts of cities in the United States and New Zealand, continued: “For all this to work, she has to get a lot of housing and a lot of converted housing fast. She’s working on speeding up some of those laws, but renovating takes time. Demolition takes time. Construction takes time.”

“And then for the University thing. That’s only if she can get all those universities to come in, if they don’t pull out due to financial or other reasons, and the biggest hurdle, if there are enough people wanting to actually come to the center or whatever in the downtown area. Affordable housing would be key for students, and I have yet to meet a developer in San Francisco who would have housing that cheap anywhere near downtown.”

“And then you have to make sure all the businesses come through. AI is growing, but more tech pullouts can still happen. And what if these AI firms go more work from home? What if they instead base down in Silicon Valley? Or San Jose? They all want these companies too. And even if you secure all of that, we are still looking at high rents and high taxes in the city. You can build it, but it won’t mean that they will come. Many cities have tried something like San Francisco is with 30 by 30. The success rate has been about 50-50. And most didn’t have the reputation San Francisco has right now.”

“For this to work, she has to make promises, no, guarantees to not have taxes go up for all these companies going in to really attract them. You know the city wants those taxes to help ay for all this new University space, but you cannot rely on businesses to foot the bill. They’ve been doing that for decades, and after the last few years of pull outs they are in a severe financial crisis.”

“They also need plans to rework vacant buildings, especially if they are iconic. Macy’s will be empty in a few years right? Perfect building to be the new focal point. If the city is smart, that’s what they’ll do.”

“But all of this is with the largest grain of salt in the world. This city has had a terrible track record of revitalization projects, and every year new plans are announced and are either abandoned, come off half baked and don’t work, or get cancelled. 30 by 30 is showing a lot of red flags right now. They start showing progress, it would be safe to be at least a little optimistic. But they need progress. They’ve burned residents in the city countless times before.”

More on Breed’s 30 by 30 plan is to come out soon.