Media Claims Newsom’s Favorability ‘Surges’ in California. Reality is Gov. Newsom’s ‘Surge’ is 2% Bump

Governor Gavin Newsom’s favorability rating is “surging,” according to local media, parroting a Politico article.

Oh?

“A new survey from the Public Policy Institute of California finds that both the governor, a likely presidential candidate, and the heavily Democratic Legislature surged to majority support in the final months of this year,” Politico fawningly reports. “The approval jump comes after Newsom and fellow Democrats championed a gerrymandered new House map explicitly to counter Trump in next year’s midterm elections.”

Politico claims: “Newsom’s favorability rating jumped 10 percentage points over the course of the year, from 46 percent in June to 56 percent this month. The Legislature’s standing improved by 8 points in the same time period, reaching a 53 percent majority.”

As a friend noted, “while media is slobbering all over the latest PPIC poll showing 56% approval for Gavin Newsom, a 10 percentage point increase, they neglect to tell the full story. This is how polling is meant to shape public opinion, and not report it.”

“The 10 point increase is from June’s 46 percent. But what about October?  Newsom’s approval was only 54%. Media is conspicuously omitting this figure. So in reality, he’s had a marginal 2% bump since the last poll. And every one of these PPIC polls, they survey at least 64% Democrats 32 to 35% Republicans.”

Boom.

The poll of 1,676 adults 1,086 likely voters, was actually recruited by the Ipsos pollsters.

• Highlights from the poll:A majority of likely voters (54%) would prefer the next governor to pursue policies different from those of Governor Newsom, while 45 percent would prefer a continuation of his policies.
• Nine in ten Republicans (94%) and a majority of independents (56%) want to see new policies, while seven in ten Democrats (69%) want to see a continuation of Newsom’s policies.
• The proportion of Californians who expect an increase in political violence in the US over the next few years has grown by 20 percentage points since February 2022. Today, six in ten adults and about two in three likely voters think they will see an increase in political violence in the US over the next few years…
• In the wake of Proposition 50 passing, how do Californians feel about state elected officials? About half of adults and likely voters approve of Governor Newsom (54% adults, 56% likely voters), the state legislature (51% adults, 53% likely voters), and state legislators representing their assembly and senate districts (51% adults, 55% likely voters).
• Approval of the governor and legislature was similar among adults in October (54% Governor Newsom, 49% legislature), while the share approving of their state legislators has increased 8 points since June (43%).
• Overwhelming shares of Democrats approve of the governor, state legislature, and their own legislators; just under half among independents and about one in ten Republicans approve of all three. Across regions, residents in the San Francisco Bay Area, Orange/San Diego, and Los Angeles are more likely to approve of the governor, the legislature, and their own legislators than those in the Inland Empire or Central Valley. Notably, approval ratings for all three fall short of a majority among whites, while majorities of African Americans, Asian Americans, and Latinos approve of their state elected officials.

Buried in the poll is how Californians feel about state issues, policies created and passed by Governor Newsom and the California Legislature with its Democrat Supermajority:

Californians continue to see the economy, cost of living, and inflation (36%) as the most important issue facing the people of California and this has been the top issue since 2023. Fewer Californians choose housing cost or availability (13%) or government in general, problems with elected officials or parties (10%). Notably, the economy is the top issue for Californians across parties, regions, and demographic groups.

About 7 in 10 Californians (71%) think the state will have bad economic times in the next 12 months. Economic pessimism is widespread, with more than 6 in 10 across parties, regions, and demographic groups expecting bad economic times. Californians are more optimistic when asked about the direction the state is headed in, although views are divided (48% right direction, 51% wrong direction). It’s noteworthy that while partisans are similarly pessimistic about the economy, they are divided on whether the state is headed in the right direction (74% Democrats, 44% independents, 10% Republicans). There is also variation across the state’s regions (right direction: 57% San Francisco Bay Area, 51% Los Angeles, 46% Orange/San Diego, 45% Inland Empire, 38% Central Valley).

Since housing costs and availability have been a top issue for Californians for many years, we asked Californians how much of a problem housing affordability is in their part of California. Nearly all Californians see housing costs and availability as a problem, with 2 in 3 saying it is a big problem (65%) and 3 in 10 saying it is somewhat of a problem (31%). Just 4 percent say housing affordability is not a problem. The view that housing affordability is a big problem is widely held by 6 in 10 or more across parties, regions, and demographic groups.

Turning to the financial impact of housing costs, more than 4 in 10 Californians say the cost of housing places a financial strain on them and their families (25% a lot, 20% a little). Residents in the Inland Empire (52%) are the most likely to say they feel this strain, followed by those in Los Angeles (48%), the San Francisco Bay Area (45%), the Central Valley (43%), and Orange/San Diego (39%). Renters (68%) are more than twice as likely as homeowners (32%) to say the cost of housing places financial strain on them. Three in four earning less than $40,000 say housing costs create strain, including more than half (57%) who report feeling a lot of strain. African Americans (58%) and Latinos (56%) are far more likely than Asian Americans (39%) and whites (33%) to say housing costs put a financial strain on them and their families.

Gavin Newsom’s economy. California Democrat’s economy.

In the methodology, the PPIC explains:

“The survey was conducted by Ipsos, using its online KnowledgePanel, in English and Spanish according to respondents’ preferences. KnowledgePanel members are recruited through probability-based sampling and include both those with internet access and those without. KnowledgePanel provides internet access for those who do not have it and, if needed, a device to access the internet when they join the panel. KnowledgePanel members are primarily recruited using address-based sampling (ABS) methodology, which improves population coverage, particularly for hard-to-reach populations such as young adults and minority groups.”

Tell me again how Governor Gavin Newsom is up 10 percentage points when 71% of Californians think the state will have bad economic times in the next 12 months, and nearly all Californians see housing costs and availability as a problem.