Michelle Steele vs. ?: The Fight For California’s 45th Congressional District

Like many races in the upcoming 2024 March Primary election, the 45th Congressional race doesn’t have two likely candidates just yet. Much like the current Senate race, there is one candidate who is all but certain to make it, with several candidates in a dogfight for second place.

The one who is certain to be in is also the only confirmed Republican in the race – Congresswoman Michelle Steel (R-CA). Since she flipped her district in 2020 and defeated then Congressman Harley Rouda with a narrow win, she has remained the LA/OC County’s member of Congress and is one of only 18 House members who are Republican in a district that voted for Biden in 2020. She has been dominating polls and, with well over $2,000,000 cash on hand going into the fourth quarter, has tenfold the amount of campaign funds than the rest of the candidates put together. That’s not to mention a strong base and  pull from not only Republicans, but also moderates and DINOs.

The real story is who she will face come November. There are currently 4 Democrats running against Steel in the primary, and none have yet to really push themselves forward into “candidate” territory.

The biggest name is Kim Bernice Nguyen-Penaloza, a Garden Grove City Councilor who declared for the race all the way back in January. She is known in Garden Grove and is the only one running other than Steel who has won public office. Nguyen-Penaloza also has many advantages, including the most endorsements by far, as well as the Democratic Party giving her ‘presumptive candidate’ endorsement for the race. However, she is not great when it comes to fundraising, having less than $50k on hand, and is only polling third with 10% of voters likely to select her in March.

Attorney and TikTok influencer Cheyenne Hunt has been a strong challenger, getting a lot of House members to back her, as well as being the most successful Democrat in terms of fundraising. But only 6% of voters have chosen her in polls, with her age of 25 being a big hurdle for many, as she is barely old enough to qualify for the House race itself.

Leading Nguyen-Penaloza in the polls is Consumer Attorneys of California Board Member Derek Tran. Despite only getting into the race relatively recently, he is second in the polls to Steel (39% to 11%, with 32% undecided). However, the status of his campaign funds is currently unknown, and his name recognition isn’t all that high. Aditya Pai, an attorney, is also running, but is only at 2% in polls.

Steel far ahead in polls, fundraising, general support

Overall, Steel is in by far the best position, and whoever gets second place amongst the Democrats is going to face an uphill battle.

“The 45th District out in California is interesting,” added Heath Becker, a New York-based political analyst who focuses on swing districts. “Steel is very powerful in a leaning Red district. If she gets above 50% in the primary, she is all but certain to win in November. None of the four Democrats challenging her has the political clout to really defeat her. Nguyen-Penaloza is probably the best candidate for the Democrats, but she isn’t in second place in the poll that came out there.

“Even if the Democrats back her with the full war chest, she has to make her name known. She can try and tie herself in with Biden to get the party bump, but with how Biden is going right now, that’s a gamble And she might not even get in. Three of them are ahead in different areas like you pointed out, and they all have very different bases to pull supporters and funds from. For a district the Democrats have marked as a focus district to take back, they really haven’t pushed a lot of resources into a single candidate yet.”

“Steel is going to win this one, that is all but certain. But if the Democrats want any sort of chance here, they need to back a candidate now. But they seem to be waiting on the primary, and for a race this important, it is looking more and more like a fatal flaw. They need to build up a candidate now to have a real chance.”

The primary election is to be held on March 5th