New Poll Finds Half of All Californians Now Considering a GOP Candidate For Governor 2026

A new David Wolfson/Madison McQueen poll released this week found that nearly half of all Californians are now considering voting for a Republican for Governor in 2026, a significant boost up from the 40.8% garnered by then Senator Brian Dahle (R) in the 2022 Gubernatorial election.

According to the poll, which surveyed 700 Californians earlier this month, a general shift towards more conservative viewpoints was also seen:

• A whopping 73% of Californians were found to be in favor of Prop 36, a proposition voted in favor of last year that makes multiple changes to California drug and theft laws.
• 72% still see homelessness as a huge problem in the state after years of actions by Democrats on the issue.
• 71% stated that they didn’t think that Democratic leadership addressed California’s high cost of living.
• 60% said they opposed free healthcare for illegal immigrants.
• And finally, only 24% think transgender males should compete in female sports.

The poll follows on the results on the 2022 and 2024 elections, which showed a massive shift in Californians voting more and more for Republicans. In 2024 alone, Republicans gained three seats in the legislature, with a state Senate seat being flipped from Democrat to Republican in a presidential year for the first time since 1980. On the national level, California also showed a bounce back for the GOP, with Donald Trump garnering the most Republican votes in the state since George Bush in 2004.

In addition, voter rolls are on the rise for Republicans. Groups like Fix California have managed to boost the number of registered Republicans in the state by hundreds of thousands in only a few years, while Democrats have actually lost registered voters. Owen Brennan, president of Madison McQueen, said that the poll showed that many Californians are growing tired with one-party rule in the state.

“Voters are increasingly concerned about the direction of California under one-party rule,” said Brennan on Monday. “On issue after issue, voters are seeing their quality of life fall and their cost of living rise.”

Dems dispute figures

However, Democrats disputed the poll numbers, saying that a Democrat would be elected as Governor in 2026 regardless, and that the Madison McQueen poll was not an indicator of anything.

“Over the next 18 months, California Democrats will connect with nearly 20 million voters and elect a Democrat as California’s next governor. Again,” said California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks in a statement.

Currently, Democrats are leading in both fundraising and the number of candidates in 2026. As of Monday, Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis, former Congresswoman Katie Porter,  State Superintendent Tony Thurmond, Senator Toni Atkins (D-San Diego), Former State Controller Betty Yee, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa are all in as official Democratic candidates. A few others, like former Vice President Kamala Harris, are set to announce later this year.

However, the GOP has been a bit more sparse in terms of candidates so far, with the only candidate with electoral experience entering the race so far being Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. A handful of other candidates are currently mulling a run, including former State Senator and 2022 Gubernatorial candidate Brian Dahle, former Olympian and 2021 Gubernatorial candidate Caitlyn Jenner, Fox New Host and former advisor to UK Prime Minister David Cameron Steve Hilton, and Special Presidential Envoy, former Director of National Intelligence and former Ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell. Other candidates entering are likely later this year, but as of Monday, this is the list.

While not many have entered on the GOP, the poll finding that 48% of Californians would still consider a Republican running for Governor is extraordinary. Should that many vote that way next November, it would be the best GOP showing for Governor since the 2006 election when then-Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger defeated Phil Angelides. And Republicans know it.

“Are voters ready for a change from the policy priorities of Democrats?,” added Brennan. “With the right leadership and policy focus, California Republicans are looking at the biggest window of opportunity in a generation.”