Another Poll Shows Gov. Gavin Newsom’s Popularity Shot Up Following L.A. Anti-ICE Riots – Temporarily

According to a new University of California, Irvine School of Social Ecology poll released on Wednesday, Governor Gavin Newsom’s popularity shot up from a dismal 38% before the Los Angeles anti-ICE protests and riots in early June to a 56% approval rating at the end of the month, albeit with signs showing that the gain was only temporary.

Several polls covering Newsom’s new popularity were conducted before the protests and riots in June. Those show his popularity ranging from 38% to 44%. The UCI SSE poll was on the lower end of that range, with 9% strongly approving of his job performance, 29% somewhat approving, 23% somewhat disapproving, 32% strongly disapproving, and 6% being undecided. While 65% of Democrats were approving of his job performance, only 27% of Independents and 15% of Republicans approved. Conversely, 65% of Independents and 95% of Republicans disapproved of his job performance, with 70% of Republicans as a whole disapproving.

Surprisingly, younger generations have greater disdain for the Governor than older generations. Only 33% of Gen Z and 34% of Millennials approved of Newsom’s job in office, going against National trends, which have shown that younger generations tend to be more supportive of the Democratic party and left-leaning lawmakers. In fact, Newsom’s supporters skewed older, with 40% of Gen X, 43% of Baby Boomers, and 50% of the Silent Generation giving more positive marks to Newsom.

However, Newsom’s response to the Los Angeles anti-ICE protests and riots last month turned many heads. Newsom was one of the most outspoken lawmakers against Trump’s actions, opposing Trump’s decision to call up California National Guard troops without his approval so much that he sued the federal government over it. He also took to the podium, news shows, and social media, coming out with quotes each day, expressing his opposition to Trump’s policies.

“This is theater, it’s madness, it’s unconstitutional, it’s immoral,” said Newsom of Trump’s National Guard action. “It puts people’s lives at risk, these people are being used as pawns.”

Newsom’s thrust into the spotlight subsequently saw his stock rise across the political landscape. According to 2028 Presidential polls, Newsom’s response against rump electrified Democrats, boosting his previously floundering 2028 support from 5% in fifth place to 11% in second place only behind former Vice President Kamala Harris. The UCI poll showed similar results for his popularity, with his approval rating going from 38% pre-riot to 56% post-riot.

Approval by his fellow Democrats went up from only 65% to a whopping 86%, with 45% of Democrats now strongly approving of his job performance. Likewise, support amongst independents went up from 27% to 49%. Even amongst the GOP things improved, with Republican approval of Newsom going from 15% to 26%. In total, Newsom’s nearly total 95% disapproval from Republicans slipped to only 68% disapproval.

A Temporary rise for Newsom?

“In late May and early June, Newsom’s approval ratings looked nearly as bad as those for Trump. Fifty-nine percent of Californians disapproved of the governor’s job performance, nearly a third of them strongly at the time. Californians disapprove of Trump by more than a 2:1 ratio,” said Jon Gould,  Dean of the UC Irvine School of Social Ecology on Wednesday.

“The federal government’s clash with California over recent immigration raids seems to have improved Californians’ impression of Newsom. Fifty-six percent of Californians now rate Newsom as “somewhat favorable” or “strongly favorable.” There is no mistaking that Newsom’s battle with Trump has been good for his standing in the state, certainly among Democrats and also with Independents. Newsom has an upside, which may help him if he chooses to run for president.”

However, as the Globe pointed out earlier this week, the poll is skewed. While Newsom certainly did see a bump of support following his response to the riots, this was mostly from half a decades worth of dissatisfied Democrats, as shown with polls from 2020 giving him a 64% approval rating. And, like how the Gubernatorial questions in the same poll didn’t offer the exact questions given and didn’t include all the major candidates as options for their pick, the poll failed to give the exact question concerning Newsom’s popularity, leaving the room open for bias.

More concerning for Newsom supporters, however, is seeing just how long this bump in support will last. Newsom’s popularity peaks in the past have come while either making a publicized stand against Trump or by responding to a major event, like the COVID-19 pandemic. For Newsom, the L.A. protests and riots proved to offer both, moving him to popularity levels that haven’t been reached for years. But his popularity bumps have been fleeting, never lasting for more than a few months before being bogged back down by his policies, with housing and crime policies historical catalysts for voters to change support against him once again.

More post-L.A. riot polls are expected to be released in the coming months, with Newsom’s popularity expected to trickle back down well below 50%.