Oakland, CA $30 Minimum Wage Heads to 2028 Ballot, Could Cost Additional 8,000 Jobs

Oakland voters will decide on a $30-per-hour-minimum wage after county election officials certified that the proposal received enough signatures to qualify for the ballot. It would nearly double the existing minimum wage in both Oakland and the unincorporated areas of Alameda County. It would also be the highest minimum wage mandate in the country.

“That measure missed the November 2026 ballot after county supervisors voted 3-2 in August to order an economic study. Unincorporated Alameda County voters weigh in on the initiative in March 2028,” eastbayinsiders.com reported.

The proposal would raise the minimum wage to $30-per-hour by July 1, 2030, for large businesses, and would appear on the November 2028 ballot unless a special election is called sooner.

Yet, according to a new analysis from the Employment Policies Institute (EPI), the policy, paired with Alameda County’s similar $30 wage proposal, could cost nearly 8,000 jobs, (EPI Methodology here).

Imagine how voters will feel if the $30-per-hour minimum wage is passed and thousands of job losses follow.

“The $30 minimum wage proposed in Oakland and Alameda County would be the highest in the country,” Rebekah Paxton, research director at EPI, said. “Just like other minimum wage hikes across California, it’s going to cost thousands of workers their jobs. In times when the cost of living is top of locals’ minds, a mandate that eliminates job opportunities is not the right solution.”

The Employment Policies Institute has consistently reported on the economic devastation of California’s $20 minimum wage for fast food workers.

EPI reports that even Alameda County’s own analysis acknowledges the potential costs of the proposal. That report estimates that the proposed $30 wage could result in more than $33 million in additional county expenditures.

California’s $20 fast food minimum wage law, AB 1228, was signed into law in October 2023 by Governor Gavin Newsom, and was a massive 25% increase from the previous $16-per-hour minimum wage.

The increase to the $20 minimum wage for fast food workers went into effect in April of 2024. Californians are bearing the cost of the 25% wage hike through significant job losses and steep food price hikes for consumers.

The EPI reports that California is no stranger to these negative impacts. Since implementing its $20 fast-food minimum wage in 2024, economists have found the affected fast food restaurant industry has lost tens of thousands of jobs, in addition to higher menu prices and fewer hours for workers who remained employed.

And California’s fast food industry sounded alarms about the new 25% wage hike in Assembly Bill 1228’s $20 fast food minimum wage, even before implementation.

In spite of the job loss data, and increase in food prices, in May 2025, the Los Angeles City Council approved a minimum wage hike, in a 12-3 vote, for airport and hotel workers, with the goal of reaching $30 an hour by 2028 – in time for the Los Angeles hosted Olympics, the Globe reported. “Given how the $20 per hour fast food wage has played out so disastrously, and how the Los Angeles hotel industry is already reporting a 6% job cut due to the $30 minimum wage hike, any other cities or counties considering economic suicide need to rethink falsely inflating the minimum wage,” we noted.

“Is LA on a Path to Having the ‘Highest-Paid Unemployed Workforce in the Country?” we asked.

Now Oakland will be heading in this disastrous direction.

“The best-available quarterly data, which covers more than 95% of California establishments, shows that since Governor Newsom signed the $20 wage into law more than 19,100 jobs in the fast food industry have been lost. That represents 3.4% employment loss for the industry,” MinimumWage.com reported over one year ago in 2025.

EPI provides additional background:

• A recent survey of economists found that 96% oppose raising the minimum wage above $20/hour. Ninety-seven percent believe it will increase automation, 96% believe it will decrease hospitality industry employment (which includes food services), and 94% believe it will make it harder for small businesses to operate.
• An EPI policy brief shows a $1 minimum wage hike can cause up to a 5.5% increase in prices, especially for food, rent, and childcare.
• The vast majority of economic studies spanning three decades on past minimum wage increases confirm minimum wage hikes cause job losses.
• EPI analysis of Census Bureau data found the median California fast food worker who remained employed lost nearly two months of scheduled work hours compared to their schedule before the $20 per hour minimum wage law went into effect.
• Recent wage hike proposals have failed across the country. For example, this year, Oklahomans rejected a $15 minimum wage ballot question. Additionally, in the 2024 elections, Californians rejected an $ 18-an-hour minimum wage—the first minimum wage proposal to fail in state history, and the first to fail nationally in 30 years.
• New POLITICO polling shows that nearly 60% of people want lawmakers to prioritize bringing down the cost of everyday essentials over implementing higher minimum wage mandates. The sentiment held steady across political ideologies and income levels.

A full analysis of the economic impacts is available on the EPI blog here.