Poll Shows Gascon Weak in Los Angeles DA’s Election Race

Is fifty one-and-a-half weeks all the time George Gascon has left in office?

A new poll on the state of the Los Angeles District Attorney’s election race shows Gascon remains deeply unpopular and – even if were to finish in the top two in the March primary to make the November runoff – he would most likely lose then – badly.

The poll – commissioned by district attorney candidate Nathan Hochman – gives Gascon 18% of the vote in the March primary, Hochman himself 12%, Jon Hatami with 8%, Maria Ramirez and Jeff Chemerinsky each with 6%, John McKinney 3%, Judges Debra Archuleta and Craig Mitchell with 1% each, David Milton and Eric Siddall at zero with 46% still undecided.

Hochman was chuffed by the results.

“The poll results reflect what I’ve been saying since Day 1 of this campaign: Gascon has made us all less safe and the public is crying out for change,” Hochman said. “They want an independent leader who will enforce the law, put dangerous criminals in prison, and prioritize public safety over politics. They know I am that leader. As the next District Attorney, I will emphasize the interests of victims and the public instead of the interests of criminals.”

It bears noting that a poll done by the Siddall campaign a month ago showed similar Gascon and undecided numbers, but put Siddall – rather than Hochman – in second place in the primary.

And a poll done for the Association for Los Angeles Deputy Sheriffs in October showed another set of Gascon competitor numbers, with Ramirez taking second place.

In other words, the support of the individual candidates opposing Gascon – there are eleven all told – remains relatively fluid and difficult to measure and will most likely remain that way until next year when the public begins to look more closely at the candidates (not coincidentally, Hochman also announced a $1 million dollar television ad campaign for the spring.)

One thing that is consistent through the three polls is the support for Gascon – or lack thereof.  Each of them shows Gascon as being in a terribly weak position going into his re-election campaign.

This latest poll puts Gascon at a negative 34 points in the favorable/unfavorable view of the candidate overall category and facing a 49 point deficit when residents were asked if they feel safer – 11% or less safe – 60% – than they did before Gascon took office.

Those numbers are in line with the previous Deputy’s poll that showed a 27 point favorability gap for Gascon.

They also match when it comes to people saying they will be voting for Gascon – one poll is at 14%, one at 16%, and the third at 18%

The number of undecided voters – hovering about just under half – has been similar in all three polls as well.

The Hochman poll also shows Hochman easily beating Gascon if they are matched head-to-head in the November runoff.  Considering the state of Gascon’s popularity in general, that is almost certainly true for most if not all of the other candidates, though it is an important number for Hochman as the only “Republican” – he said he is running as an independent/no party preference as the office is non-partisan – in the race.  That former “R” next to Hochman’s name was thought to be a potential problem in the runoff in heavily Democratic Los Angeles County– not so much if this poll is accurate.

The numbers in that potential contest?  56% Hochman, 18% Gascon, 26% undecided.  This number is interesting in a different way, as well:  gaining only 2 points when moving from a choice amongst 12 people to a choice between two people is indicative of the deep disdain voters have for Gascon and – as noted above – a good sign for all of the other candidates if they were to face him in a runoff.

It can also serve as a indicator of how many of the currently undecided primary voters will opt for Gascon.  It appears not very many, leaving open the door to an even more humiliating exit for Gascon: not even getting out of the primary and having two of his challengers facing off in November.

Jon Hatami, who spotted third in the Hochman poll, emphasized the incumbent’s precarious position.

“(T)his poll shows that, one, George Gascon is historically unpopular, and that his numbers are worse than Chesa Boudin and, two, that at this stage of the race, there are at least 4 candidates with a credible chance of making it to the runoff and we intend to continue our grassroots campaign and to outwork everyone,” through March 4, Hatami said.

The clear weakness of Gascon’s re-election chances have seemingly caused a bit of a rift in the LA progressive political community, with some sticking with Gascon but others – including, reportedly, big money former backers – jumping ship to the Chemerinsky campaign.  The theory of the move is that Chemerinsky will move “justice reform” ahead but be able to run in November without Gascon’s stench of failure dragging him down.

Though after their time with Gascon, whether or not Los Angeles County residents want to continue down that needle-strewn path is not exactly certain.