San Francisco Crime Down Coincidentally as Mayor Breed Sinking in Recent Polls

During the weekend, the San Francisco Police Department (SFPD) announced that crime rates in the city fell, posting lower rates of crime in the first quarter of 2024 compared against the first quarter of 2023.

Since the first quarter of 2023, San Francisco has taken multiple efforts to reduce crime in the cities following several years of major rises in crime during the tenures of District Attorneys George Gascon and Chesa Boudin. In April 2023, Governor Gavin Newsom announced a task force of the SFPD, California Highway Patrol (CHP), the California National Guard (CalGuard) to assist the city, the San Francisco District Attorney’s Office (SFDA), and the California Department of Justice (CADOJ) to help crack down on crime in the city. Specifically, they went after the growing use of fentanyl in the city.

DA Brooke Jenkins continued to chip away at Boudin-era policies throughout the year, with the city adding more license plate readers and other crime-fighting technology and working on addressing the SFPD staffing shortage. By the later months of 2023, crime seemed to go down, especially following the APEC Summit in November, although it was noted that the effects of the higher security at the time quickly reverted back to pre-APEC levels. Going into 2024, the fight on San Francisco’s crime was having mixed results. While the Task Force did result in many large fentanyl seizures and arrests, a record number of overdoses also occurred in the city. Last month, San Francisco voters also approved two major propositions designed to help reduce crime.

During the weekend, the SFPD finally released Q1 2024 crime figures. While still very high, especially compared to other years, it  showed that there has been an overall decrease from Q1 2023. Overall, property crime is down 32% and violent crime is down 14% compared to the first quarter of 2023.

Specifically, the SFPD highlighted several areas in which there has been significant reduction:

Property Crime Reductions:

• Car break-ins down 51%
• Burglary down 17%
• Motor vehicle theft down 10%
• Arson down 10%
• Larceny theft (non-car break-ins) down 18%

Violent Crime Reductions:

• Homicide down 27%
• Rape down 29%
• Robbery down 18%
• Assault down 8%
• Gun violence down 38%

Crime down in SF

“We are committed to making San Francisco a safer, more vibrant city for our residents, businesses, workers, and visitors,” said Mayor London Breed. “While this is positive news, we have more work to do make our city safer for all and we are not letting up. When you are a victim of a crime, statistics don’t matter, but we also know that our law enforcement agencies are working tirelessly to bring justice to victims and to protect our communities. We will continue to coordinate across all levels of government, introduce new tools and policies, and support our officers, deputies, and attorneys doing the work on our streets and in the courtroom.”

SFPD Chief Bill Scott added that “It’s very encouraging to see that the implementation of our strategies to address crime coupled with the hard work of our officers and professional staff are making a real difference and is having positive effects. These downward trending crime rates show that the SFPD is on the right path. We are excited that our crime reduction strategies moving forward will include enhanced utilization of modern technology that will help our police department be more effective and efficient in preventing and investigating crimes.”

However, many questioned the statistics on Monday. The timing of the release of the statistics so soon after many candidates in the upcoming San Francisco Mayoral election charged the city with being lax on crime, and at least one candidate calling for the ousting of Scott.

“Funny how that Mayor Breed has been sinking in recent polls due in part because of high crime seen during her tenure, but now all the sudden we’re getting really good reports,” explained Frank Ma, a former law enforcement official who now works as a security advisor for businesses in San Francisco and cities in the Peninsula, to the Globe on Monday. “Breed needed crime to fall, and it did. Everyone on high knows that things would change drastically with a new Mayor, so of course everyone is out making this thing sort of happen. It lit a fire under everyone, and with all that new support coming last year, they made the rates go down.”

“The timing of the press release, however, probably wasn’t a coincidence. Farrell and Peskin are knocking on her door in the Mayoral race, and Scott has been threatened to be removed by at least Farrell. So yeah, they’re making a big deal of this. It should be noted that, even with these falls, crime rates in the city are still ridiculously high. Anyone living here can tell you that. But they are going down now, which is something Breed can throw back at her opponents during debates. Of course, they can get at her for making it so bad to begin with, and that she is just cleaning up her mess. But that is for later this year. Right now, crime rates are down at a time when she needs them to be down.”

Q2 2024 statistics are to come out some time in early July.