Sheriff Lamb Gallops to 54 percent Lead in AZ-05 GOP Primary Poll

A newly released poll shows that Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb isn’t just leading the pack in Arizona’s 5th Congressional District Republican primary—he’s lapping the field. NextGenP, the national consulting firm with a knack for early-cycle crystal balls, has placed Lamb, still undeclared as a candidate, at a commanding 54 percent in a ballot test among likely GOP voters, more than seven times his closest challenger and a thunderclap for anyone eyeing Rep. Andy Biggs’ open seat.

The survey, released October 12 and weighted to reflect district demographics, drew from 1,380 responses with a margin of error of ±2.6 percent at 95 percent confidence—solid enough to make even the skeptics sit up straight. It tested declared hopefuls alongside rumored contenders like Lamb and Gilbert Councilman Monte Lyons, probing favorability, top federal issues (spoiler: border chaos topped the list), and head-to-head matchups. The shadow of the Pinal County Sheriff loomed large: Lamb towered above Jay Feely, an ex-NFL kicker turned podcaster who garnered 7 percent favorability, former State Rep. Travis Grantham at 3 percent, Home-builder Daniel Keenan at 0 percent, and Theologian and Army Chaplain (ret.) Alex Stovall is failing to move the needle. 

NextGenP wrote, “In terms of name recognition, Keenen was identified by 49 percent of respondents, and Stovall by only 43 percent, indicating that more than half of likely voters are either unfamiliar with them or lack a clear opinion.”

Gilbert City Councilman Monte Lyons, who polled at one percent in June according to the firm, has fallen off the scope.

Sheriff Mark Lamb commands a HUGE lead in AZ-05

BALLOT TEST
Mark Lamb 54%
Jay Feely 7%
Travis Grantham 3%
Daniel Keenan 0%
Alex Stovall 0%
Undecided 35%

Mark Lamb received a +66% net positive image, with 96% total name ID. 

The poll by NextGenP was conducted… pic.twitter.com/578l5Mbs4t

— NextGen Polling (@NextGenPolling) October 14, 2025

The polling has real gravitas in Arizona’s Fifth Congressional District and suggests Lamb as a potential stabilizing factor. NextGenP’s release calls Lamb’s edge “commanding and consistent across demographics.” The poll also noted 96 percent of respondents recognized Lamb by name. That’s near-universal name identification—a critical advantage in any campaign.

For the sheriff, who parlayed his badge into a Kari Lake Senate primary tussle last year (second place, no bruises), it’s vindication: his no-holds-barred rants on cartel crossings and 2020 “irregularities” resonate like a .45 in the desert night.

“The polling is sending us a clear message,” said Gregg Pekau, managing partner at NextGenP.

“Voters in congressional district 5 want to elect Sheriff Mark Lamb to Congress, and campaigning from other candidates is doing little to change their minds. After our last 3 quarters of polls, we’ve seen zero real improvement or movement from Feely, Grantham or Keenan. Without a major move by any of them soon, this race is over if and when Sheriff Lamb enters the race.”

Lamb, though undeclared, has taken a prime standing in Arizona’s Fifth Congressional District, and he slots in seamlessly with the Freedom Caucus faithful on Biggs’ turf. He is Trump-aligned but largely non-controversial, pro-life, pro-law enforcement, and a Second Amendment absolutist. If he jumps in the race, it could effectively firewall the Southwest for the House GOP, easing leadership concerns amidst a hectic shutdown debacle and mutterings of Democrat incursions.