Super Bowl Sunday: Avocados Grow, Where Water Flows 

President Donald Trump’s immigration and tariff policies were met with speculation and fearmongering that both would increase the price of avocados and all agriculture. Meanwhile, others countered with their opposition to Mexican imports and cartel “blood avocados.” Here’s the gospel truth about turning water into guacamole this Super Bowl Sunday.

California grows over 90% of U.S. avocados, totaling approximately 47,600 acres and worth $239 million in 2023. Avocado production peaked at 76,307 acres in 1987, declining to 61,254 acres in 1994, before increasing in 2002, and declining again since 2007. The top five avocado counties are: Ventura (40%), San Diego (26%), Santa Barbara (13%), San Luis Obispo (8%), and Riverside (9%), according to the California Avocado Commission in Irvine. Ventura overtook San Diego, the traditional top avocado producer, in 2016.

The U.S. now imports 90% of its avocados, compared to 40% in the 2000s. The top importers are Mexico (88%), Peru (7%), Dominican Republic (3%), and Chile (1%). Avocados are native to Mexico and it is the largest producer in the world, with 636,471 acres, primarily in Michoacán (73%), Jalisco (12%), and the State of Mexico (5%).

The North American Free Trade Agreement went into effect in 1994. Acreage dropped the next season; NAFTA didn’t apply to avocados until 1997. Despite competition concerns, by the early 2000s increased supply from both Californian and Mexican avocados expanded the market, and imports from the Southern Hemisphere provide year round availability.

Mexican cartels don’t explain the decline of California avocados in the late 2000s. The cartels are involved in all activities, including avocados from the beginning of the “green gold rush,” extorting growers and controlling territory. Nor does the cost of labor or potentially reducing illegal labor – not to be confused with legal agricultural workers – explain why state and San Diego production declined, while Ventura grew. The reason is water.

After initial planting, overwhelmingly the highest cost of growing avocados is water, exceeding all other inputs such as land and labor. In the case of San Diego, water costs up to four times as much compared to Ventura. Most water in San Diego comes from the Colorado River or the California Aqueduct. Only 20% of water is local and requires dilution for avocados. Over the decades, the state has limited water to the aqueduct because of the Delta Smelt, which was listed by California as threatened in 1993 and endangered in 2010.

The Sacramento Delta is naturally brackish, and transports freshwater snowmelt from the Sierra Nevada to the Bay, San Joaquin Valley, and Southern California. Water to the Aqueduct is reduced to maintain salinity for the smelt and designation changes are associated with the largest seasonal declines in 1994-1995 (-8.39%) and 2009-2010 (-9.74%). Less water, less avocados. Then like all agriculture, avocados have peak production years and need to be replanted, at which point the land becomes vulnerable to alternative uses such as housing.

Nothing about California is natural. Before 1846, there were only a few hundred thousand people, in a state that is now over 39 million. California should construct the Delta bypass tunnels, increase water to the Aqueduct, build more above and below ground water storage, as well as desalination. The state isn’t even performing basic maintenance on the infrastructure it has now.

There are 42 dams that are in critical condition and have reduced storage and aren’t being repaired or replaced because of budget cuts by Gov. Gavin Newsom. Five are in San Diego and resulted in 5.5 billion gallons sent to the ocean in 2024. Politicians can’t boast that California is the leader in agriculture on one hand, whilst flailing and failing on water with the other.