Taking Down The Assembly Supermajority: 7 Seats To Go in 2026

The 2024 election brought a new wave of hope to the CAGOP, even bigger than the 2022 elections which sent more House seats to the GOP in California.

For the first time in decades, both the Assembly and state Senate saw GOP growth. Even the number of conservative favored propositions were higher than normal.  They managed to flip Assembly seats for the first time in a Presidential election year since 1992 and pass numerous favored Propositions including the tougher on crime Prop 36. And in the Senate, the state saw the first presidential year Senate seat flip since 1980.

Even some of the losses were wins, with Steve Garvey having the highest GOP vote total for a Senate candidate since 2010. Trump did well too, getting the most votes for any Republican candidate in the state since the 2004 election. And that’s not even mentioning the successful recall of Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao.

In total, they got three seats back in the legislature. A focus by Fix California registering voters and the party attracting Latino voters paid off.  In fact, the CAGOP and Fix California made huge gains throughout the year, while CADEM lost many registered voters. The number of registered Democrats still outweighs Republicans in the state, but the GOP has massively grown. Since 2019, the GOP added over 750,000 registered Republicans to voter rolls, including nearly 100,000 in the first half of 2024 alone.

And now the Assembly and Senate Democratic supermajorities are in danger. The GOP just needs 4 more Senators and 7 more Assemblymembers to break it. As the Globe reported in January, the GOP and groups like Reform California very well know the stakes and who to target. According to Reform California, this is who they they are looking at in the Assembly:

STATE ASSEMBLY – 13 Targets Will Be Selected

1. AD-7 (Sacramento) — Josh Hoover (Defend)
2. AD-22 (Central Valley) — Juan Alanis (Defend)
3. AD-27 (Central Valley) — TBD Candidate (Pick Up)
4. AD-35 (Central Valley) – TBD Candidate Needed (Pick Up)
5. AD-36 (Riverside County) — Jeff Gonzalez (Defend)
6. AD-40 (Los Angeles County) — TBD Candidate Needed (Pick Up)
7. AD-47 (Riverside County) — Greg Wallis (Defend)
8. AD-58 (Riverside County) — Leticia Castillo (Defend)
9. AD-60 (Riverside County) — TBD Candidate (Pick Up)
10. AD-67 (Orange County) — TBD Candidate (Pick Up)
11. AD-70 (Orange County) — Tri Ta (Defend)
12. AD-74 (Orange County/San Diego) — Laurie Davies (Defend)
13. AD-76 (San Diego) — TBD Candidate (Pick Up)

On the Watch List (8 seats):

1. AD-13 (Central Valley) – TBD Candidate Needed (Pick Up)
2. AD-31 (Central Valley) – TBD Candidate Needed (Pick Up)
3. AD-39 (Los Angeles/San Bernardino) – TBD Candidate Needed (Pick Up)
4. AD-42 (Los Angeles/Ventura County) – TBD Candidate Needed (Pick Up)
5. AD-50 (San Bernardino) – TBD Candidate Needed (Pick Up)
6. AD-53 (Los Angeles County) – TBD Candidate Needed (Pick Up)
7. AD-56 (Los Angeles County) – TBD Candidate Needed (Pick Up)
8. AD-73 (Orange County) — TBD Candidate (Pick Up)

7 Seats to go in the Assembly

Of these, 4 are within only a few points for a GOP flip: AD’s 40, 42, 60, and 76. And another, AD-41, could swiftly come onto the radar because of both a close 2024 election and so many in the area furious over the Democratic leader response to the wildfires. Let’s take a brief look:

40th District: The 4oth District covers Northwest L.A. County covering Santa Clarita and the Chatsworth area of Los Angeles. Assemblywoman Pilar Schiavo (D-Chatsworth) only won with 52.8% of the vote over Patrick Lee Gipson last year. The district leans blue, but only around 42% of people there are registered Democrats, showing that the GOP is well within range of picking it up in 2026.

41st District: Normally on the outside of the bubble, the Pasadena anchored San Gabriel Valley seat is usually pretty well in favor of the Dems. But there have been some slip ups in the past year. Assemblyman John Harabedian (D-Sierra Madre) only won with 58.5% of the vote, less than the solid 60%+ that is the norm. Plus, the entire district is furious with the Democratic response to the Eaton fire, which devastated Altadena and scorched neighboring cities in the district in January. It wasn’t on the CAGOP’s radar only a few months ago, but is now probably the best district for a surprise flip.

42nd District: An Inland Empire seat helmed by Assemblywoman Jacqui Irwin (D-Thousand Oaks), the seat was close to being flipped last year. Irwin managed to get only 54% of the vote, and as an incumbent at that. Riverside County and San Bernadino County have been a battleground between the old guard GOP and the new mostly Dem L.A. transplants for awhile now, and the 42nd kind of encapsulates that.

60th District: Sitting on the edge of Riverside County, the 60th District is yet another Inland Empire District going through an identity crisis. Assemblyman Corey Jackson (D-Perris) won here with 55% of the vote last year, but the seat is still very vulnerable.

76th District: A San Diego district, the 76th has been inching closer to the GOP in recent years. Assemblywoman Darshana Patel (D-San Diego) won here last year with 54% of the vote. However, the San Diego GOP is not giving up that easily, and is set to make an even bigger dent in the 2026 race.

These 5 races, as well as others, are now in the sights of the GOP with the party on the upswing. And Assembly and party leaders know it. They even stressed it being a team effort.

“We’re seeing a real shift in California — even in longtime Democrat strongholds, people are fed up with rising costs, growing crime, and failed policies,” said Republican Assembly Leader James Gallagher (R-Yuba City) to the Globe on Monday. “Republicans are offering common-sense solutions, and Californians are responding. We made historic gains last election by flipping seats and holding tough districts, and we’ve got the right team to keep building on that momentum. I’m confident we’re in a strong position to make even more gains in 2026.”