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Majority of California Latinos Favor Ousting Newsom
Negative lockdown effects against Latinos, growing middle class push more for the recall
By Evan Symon, August 28, 2021 2:32 am
One of the largest demographics in favor of recalling Governor Gavin Newsom this year has come as something of a surprise: Latinos.
According to polls conducted earlier this month, Latino voters are far and away supportive of the recall, with 54% saying yes and only 41% saying no. They have garnered an even greater percentage than white voters, who remain largely split on the question.
For many, the turn around of Latino voters returning to the Republican party has been surprising. For much of Californian history, Latinos were generally on the side of the GOP. For 0ver 100 years after statehood, only Republican Latinos were elected to higher office, with the first California Latino members of Congress (Romualdo Pacheco, Frank Coombs), and the only Latino Governor in state history (Pacheco) coming out during this time. However, a growing immigrant population and the civil rights-era state voter swing of the 1960’s began to change that, with Latinos generally considered to be a left leaning voter bloc by the time of the citizenship screening, illegal immigrant benefit reducing Proposition 187 in 1994. Latinos in California were largely passionate against the prop, with the vote now generally seen as the beginning of the decline of the Republican Party in California.
“A lot of Mexican immigrants and others who came up here saw it as something as a betrayal,” explained Jamie Rodriguez, a second-generation California Latino lawyer whose father, Jose, helped organize several farmworkers against the measure in 1994, to the Globe. “Not all Latinos voted against it, as there are many here who have been in California since it became a state, and many who liked the measure, but generally speaking, Latinos were overwhelmingly against it, and in our eyes, that was the breaking point.”
However, after several decades of large amounts of Latino support for Democrats, support has begun to shift back to Republicans.
Latinos shifting back to the GOP
“The big question is often why this has been happening,” noted Jessica Ochoa, a Los Angeles business owner who assists many Spanish-only speakers in starting businesses of their own, to the Globe on Thursday. “But it shouldn’t be too surprising. Many Latinos, especially recent migrants from Mexico, Guatemala, and other Central American countries, are very religious, very Catholic. They are also very family oriented. So these beliefs largely align with the GOP.
“The GOPs anti-migrant and immigration stances during the last few decades have caused many to stick with the Democrats, but we are now seeing many who have now gotten citizenship, many who are now second generation, and many who came in young who now have families of their own. The issue of being undocumented is no longer the main one because things have gotten more complex. In turns many Republican whites and Asians have cooled down on the rhetoric in recent years too, even during the Trump administration, and that has brought a lot of goodwill if you will. Newer generations are also having an increase of multi-ethnic households, so identity is less of an issue.”
“But that’s really what has happened. Many have become middle class and care more about issues that Republicans hold dear. Many Latinos also get into business. I’ve helped dozens. The GOP has also made serious inroads in recent years in attracting more to the party. People like Trump had more Latinos in California vote for him in 2020 compared to 2016. And since last year, with the lockdown, many have had to close. A lot of Latinos lost their businesses or had their business severely hurt. And for Latino workers it has been bad too since many are in more menial positions that quickly evaporated during the lockdown. I know many who worked in kitchens who are still out of work.”
“The COVID response, particularly that to the Latino communities, also really hurt us. Even with the migrant border crisis and many high up Republicans still saying some not so nice things about “illegal immigrants”, everything else overrides that. It just became too much, and many now want to get rid of [Governor] Gavin Newsom. Many now favor Republican candidates. And that is really making the difference now.”
Other issues are also reflecting the turn around.
“A lot of farm workers are Latino, and they are now being tossed to the wayside,” added Rodriguez. “The drought has closed down a bunch of farms, and it has left a lot of Latino farm workers, farmers, and businesses in trouble.
“You know what I aw the other day? The thing that convinced me that Latinos are returning to the GOP? There is a Cesar Chavez monument in the town where my mother lives. When I was driving out last week, a ‘Recall Newsom’ sign was stuck on there. I told my mother that that sign would be gone within an hour, and she said it had been up for about a week. This in a town where County sheriffs had to be called in in 1994 over Prop 187 protests. That tells a lot now doesn’t it?”
“Latino Republicans had been growing in recent years anyway. But Newsom’s COVID response really turned a corner for most.”
The recall election is to be held on September 14th.
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From the beginning, I have felt that Latinos were going to be the key demographic to this recall. If you look at registered voters and likely voters, Latinos are a larger percentage of the Democrats as opposed to Republicans and Independents. So, Latinos could influence the recall vote in two ways: (1) lower turnout to retain Newsom and higher cross-over voters to oust Newsom for likely Latino Democrat voters (2) higher turnout and greater enthusiasm to oust Newsom for Latino Republican and Independent voters. At this point, the recall looks like a toss-up. Waiting to see what effect, if any, the GSS checks have on ballot turn-in. (https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/JTF_VoterProfilesJTF.pdf)
Disagree. Democrats are voting in unprecedented numbers. Looking like a 2-3 point Newsom victory at this point.
Where are you getting your information?
But let’s assume you’re correct —- what you don’t know is how those Dems are voting.
Recall Newsom, Latinos Like me think that enough is enough Freedom of Choice.
Yes!!! ????????????????
It’s true. Also wait for the big Democrat $$$ coming after Labor Day and a torrent of pro-Dem ads. This was what beat Nina Turner in the last hyped election. $$$ always is the key for a political win unfortunately. And yeah…this article is inaccurate and is typical of conservative kookiness.
Hope you are being paid well to be a mercenary for the Worst CA Governor EVER. Good luck.
If Newsome looses it will be a mess. Elder is a mysoginistic pig won’t hire women if they plan on having a family and doesn’t believe in minimum wage
In addition to the Latino Pro-Recall contingent I suspect there is a contingent of immigrants-now-citizens (from everywhere) who are “Democrat-in-name-only” (DINOs). Registered as Dems (because “democrat” sounded more “American?”) when they first became citizens, still technically registered as Dems, but who now vote more conservatively after observing that Dem politicians are using them and turning their new country into the one they left.
If Latinos think thevrepubs care about them they are wrong again. Newsomevand the Dems fight for the rights of all people, the pandemic is no one fault, yet Newsome has continued to help the the poor and disenfranchise.
Vote against yourself if they like, but they will be sorry.
You really need to get out of your bubble, Gertrude. “Newsom and the Dems fight for the rights of all people?” “Newsom has continued to help the poor and disenfranchised?” Those are two of the most delusional statements I’ve heard all year. Have you looked around you at what is happening out there? On our streets? Newsom doesn’t give a rat’s rear end about anyone but himself. But you knew that already, didn’t you.
Well said!!’ ???????? Newsom is out!!!
Vote NO on Karen politics…
That’s right. So Vote YES to Recall Newsom.
Yes!!!! Vote “YES!!!
For god’s sake! You would vote for the party that wants to keep you out of the US. The party that described you as rapists, drug dealers, etc. Why?
“Reggie Ramos” —– “Latinos,” “Hispanics” describe a demographic category in California. I presume we’re talking about citizens, those who vote, and not those who are in this country illegally. But now that you mention it, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to learn that those who are in this country illegally are fed up with Newsom, too. Nice try with the inaccurate stereotyping to bash and further unfairly smear a certain former U.S. President, though
@Reggie It’s 54% of likely voters so lower turnout reflects this. Even without the lower turnout, a substantial minority of Latinos support the recall that its nonpartisan. However this does not necessarily mean they’re supporting GOP. Latinos have bore the brunt of the coronavirus and before the pandemic, they have starkly lower wealth and income compared to whites and Asians. Furthermore, Newsom signed the healthcare bill for immigrants but it doesn’t take effect until 2022. Had it been signed last year, some would have had healthcare now. Even on non standard liberal issues, mask mandates and business/school closures are significant factors for some Latinos. So what reason would they have to be enthusiastic of Newsom? The ones having mixed feelings will end up stay home and some Latinos will vote yes.
@Art, I think you’re right. With 2 1/2 weeks to go 16% of the mail-in ballots have been returned. Looking at the ethnic group breakdown by percentage of their total: White (19%), African-American (16%), Asian (15%), Latino (10%). A much higher percentage of White voters have returned their ballots. Only 10% of the total Latino voters who were mailed ballots, have returned them so far. This low return is affecting the Democrats more than Republicans and Independents because Latinos make up a higher percentage of likely Democrat voters.
There’s nothing about the GOP that is “family oriented.” Wtf!?
@Brian, Latinos are Catholic and frequent church goers. The Democratic Party’s secularism and its apathy or even hostility toward churches definitely aren’t family values.
This article is a joke. We are less than 1 year removed from the worst presidency in history, Trump, and now after numerous failed attempts the CA minority party (republicans) finally garnered enough votes, on the backs of the let them play movement. Unfortunately Ron Desantis and Greg Abbott are showing how pathetic republicans are in a crisis. No thank you to the stumble bums and that joke Larry elder running. My vote is no along with everyone else I know. We don’t need common sense health measures removed and the authoritarian politics we are seeing out of the so-called less government party in Texas and Florida. Not gonna happen!
Do you really think anyone believes you are an average voter weighing in about your vote on the recall?
Newsom has to be out – period. !!! Enough is enough!!!
@Ron what are you smoking? Apparently whatever it is that the MSM and democrats have been selling!! How could you possibly say that any year of Trumps presidency has even came close to as disastrous as the first 7 months of Bidens??? Where have you been? Blindfolded with earplugs in your basement like your President?? I am Latino and I see the destruction that democrat policies are bringing to this country! Say what you want about Florida and Texas but where do you think all those people leaving California are going?? There have been more people leaving California in the past year than ever before, so many people are running away from there that California has lost a congressional seat… for the first time ever!! It is the failed democrat policies that have turned one of the greatest states in America one of the least greatest states in America! Democrats speak of equality but has one of the largest equality gaps in the nation. It is always the white man telling us minorities how the other white man (GOP) is holding us down… while they themselves are the racists that are holding us down! We are smarter than that… we vote for policies not parties… we look at how they affect our lives… we are not victims of propaganda and identity politics… we are free thinking individuals that will not be slaves to the lying Democrat Party!
If you want to people to have any credibility in you you’ll be better off changing the title of this post or remove it overal. Your predictions were 100% wrong.
https://www.npr.org/2021/09/16/1038032109/newsom-won-but-he-won-big-with-latinos