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Gavin Newsom
Gavin Newsom. (Photo: Kevin Sanders for California Globe)

A Massive Failure to Triage in California and New York

While coronavirus incidence and death rates in CA and New York are reported as statewide, they are actually based on one county in each state

By Wayne Lusvardi, March 30, 2020 8:09 am

There has been a massive, seemingly intended, failure to triage the coronavirus response and make everyone suffer, in emergency health policy in California and New York, for localized, not statewide, outbreaks of coronavirus.

Seasonal flu deaths are running at about twice the rate of coronavirus in California.

Brief

Emergency public health policy in Democrat California and New York has been to home-quarantine everyone and close non-essential services down, devastating their economies.  In contrast, health policy in Republican Texas and Florida has been to leave it up to each county and city as to whether to quarantine or shut-down businesses.  Statistics in the data table below show the virus incidence rate and death rate in Texas and Florida is vastly lower with enormously less economic damage than California and New York.

New York Gov. Cuomo justifies such totalitarian measures based on hospital admittance rates doubling every two days, but that is only in one city (New York). The actual state death rate is 2 percent of those diagnosed but only 0.0003%, or 3 out of every 100,000 of the entire population, or 66,666 times fewer admittances than forecasted.

Likewise, California Gov. Newsom claims 56 percent of the population will get the coronavirus. This is apparently based on a death rate of 3.5 percent out of all persons diagnosed with the disease in one county (Santa Clara County – see data table below). The actual death rate in the entire state is, 0.003%, reflecting 3 out of every million, or 11,666 times less than forecasted.  If California and New York are exaggerating coronavirus incidence and death rates, should the reported statistics even be trusted?

Crucial quotes

Gov. Cuomo: “We closed everything down. That was our public health strategy,”  “Why all of this? Because it’s 1 percent or 2 percent of the population. It’s lives”

“That’s how I think you do it. … It’s not [that] we’re going to either do public health or we’re going to do economic development and restarting. We have to do both.”

Gov. Newsome Letter to Pres. Trump: “In some parts of our state, our case rate is doubling every four days…We project that 56 percent of our population – 26.5 million people – will be infected with the virus over an 8 week period”.

Key Take-Aways

Governors Newsom and Cuomo each misuse data from one coronavirus hot spot in one county and extrapolate it to their entire states. There is no statistical basis to detain people in their homes, close-down non-essential businesses and schools in entire states or require massive statewide bailouts. In fact, shutting down essential businesses in California and New York appears to be justification for statewide bailouts rather than sound health policy.

This failure to triage has resulted in about 50 counties in California and 60 counties in New York state having to suffer house confinement and shutdowns of non-essential businesses and ruination of their economies because no county can be better off under the political Left’s social justice health policy. This is similar to California’s 2012 to 2016 drought conservation policy where no city or county that is water self- sufficient (Riverside, Blythe, Downey, Carpinteria) was exempt from 25 percent water cutbacks that helped no one.

Moreover, the estimated death rate for seasonal influenza (not coronavirus) in California thus far in 2019-2020 is 6.45% based on 4,235 cases and 273 deaths at Kaiser Permanente Hospitals.

While coronavirus incidence and death rates in California and New York are reported as statewide, they are actually based on one county in each state (Santa Clara County in California and New York City/County in the state of New York – see data below).  There has been a massive failure to triage in emergency health policy in California and New York. 

Key Definition: Triage: The process of sorting people based on their need for immediate medical treatment as compared to their chance of benefiting from such care.

Selected Coronavirus Data per State (data sources: 1point3acres.com)

State

Population

Cases

Deaths

Death Rate per Case

Incidence Ratio per Population

Death Ratio per Population

California

39,512,223

4,880

100

0.0001

Or 1 out of

10,000

0r 0.01%

0.0001

1 out of 10,000 or 0.01%

0.000003
3 out of 1,000,000

Or 0.0003%

New York

19,453,561

46,094

606

0.013

1.3 out of 100

1.3%

0.00003
1 out of 100,000

0r 0.001%

0.00003
3 out of 100,000 or

0.003%

Texas

28,995,881

2,009

26

0.13

1.3 out of 100

Or 1.3%

0.0001
1 out of 10,000

Or 0.01%

0.000001
1 out of 1,000,000

Or 0.0001%

Florida

21,477,737

3,198

46

0.014
1.4 out of 100

1.4%

0.0001
1 out of 10,000

Or 0.01%

0.000002

2 out of 1,000,000

Or 0.0002%

Data Sources

U.S. Census

Website: 1point3acres.com;
For proper use of fractions, ratios and rates see:

https://www.ncbi.nim.gov/books/NBK126161/

Selected Coronavirus Data per County (data source: 1point3acres.com)

County

Population

Cases

Deaths

Deaths per Cases

Incidence per Population

Deaths per Population

Santa Clara County, CA

1,927,852

574

20
1/5
th of all state deaths

0.35
3.5 out of 100 or
3.5%

0.0003
3 out of 10,000

Or 0.03%

0.00001

1 out of 100,000

Or 0.001%

New York County, NY

1,628,706

26,697

450

0.017

1.7 out of 100 or

1.7%

0.016
16 out of 10,000

0.016%

0.0003
3 out of 10,000

Or 0.003%

Dallas County, TX

2,554,632

367

7
1/4
th of all state deaths

0.02

2 out of 100

Or 2.0%

0.0001

1 out of 10,000 or
0.02%

0.00001
1 out of 100,000

Or 0.001%

Broward County, FLA

1,909,151

631

10
1/5 of all state

0.016
1.6 out of 100 or
1.6%

0.0003

3 out of 10,000

0r 0.03%

0.00001
1 out of 100,000 or

0.001%

Data Sources

US Census

Website: 1point3acres.com;
For proper use of fractions, ratios and rates see:

https://www.ncbi.nim.gov/books/NBK126161/

 

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5 thoughts on “A Massive Failure to Triage in California and New York

  1. Appreciated this take of “a failure to triage,” which gives a fresh perspective. It certainly is a hallmark of the Left, isn’t it, to use a “poster child” to make us believe a problem is more prevalent than it actually is. Another manipulative trick and shameless lie from Govs. Cuomo and Newsom, when of course what we need now most is truthful and accurate information.

  2. I just don’t understand the hype. If CNN reported 24/7 every year the case and death toll of the regular flu, nobody would ever leave their houses. Here in one of the hotbeds of COVID-19 (Santa clara county) the hospitals that the media have said are over run and the staff is overworked, how come the hospitals are actually empty. At Good Samaritan Hospital in San Jose, over 100 nurses are not working and nurses that are scheduled for 8 hour shifts are set home because there is not enough work to keep them there. Why is the governor asking for nursing students and retired nurses to work if this is the case. Who is behind the false hype? What is the real agenda?

    1. It sounds like your question might be a rhetorical one and thus not require an answer, but for others who are wondering what the Gov’s (and others’) incentive is to create hysteria, check out “What Executive Orders Has Newsom Ordered During Coronavirus Crisis?” by Katy Grimes in the California Globe archives on this website for a clue. This is just one example of an agenda of leftist wish-list goodies that is much easier to achieve (by Executive Order) when everyone is panicked and fearful vs. when they are not and people like Newsom, et al, are forced to go through the legislative or ballot process. I think one of the most dangerous items is his monkeying with election protocols by proclaiming “Absentee Ballots for Everyone!” which increase the potential for shady ballot harvesting and thus voter fraud.
      By the way, I don’t think anyone would have much noticed what Newsom did if Katy Grimes hadn’t helpfully made a LIST of his Executive Orders.

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