California Globe Live Midterm Election Updates & Commentary

Scroll down for most current updates.

4:00p.m. PST/7:00p.m. EST:

The first polls are closing in six Eastern states: Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, Kentucky, Vermont, and Indiana. It’s too soon to call any of the races, but we will be updating key races throughout the night.

Katy Grimes:

California voters are still casting votes in person and dropping off ballots. The Globe visited the Sacramento County Voter and Elections office where there was a long line of cars in a drive-through ballot drop off line. Voters were also opting to vote in person.

There are projections of more than 120 million voters in this midterm election. According RealClearPolitics, Republicans are expected to gain a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate.

The New York Post reports a CBS News exit survey has found two-thirds of voters don’t want President Joe Biden to run for reelection in 2024.

There is a lot at stake even in deep blue California. Over the weekend, “Senate Democrats and other high level members of the Democratic Party denounced claims by California Governor Gavin Newsom made last week that the Democratic Party is getting “crushed on narrative” this election, showing further fracturing of the party only days before the election,” the Globe’s Evan Symon reported. Could the shine be wearing off California’s controversial and elusive governor?

California has several controversial ballot initiatives as well. And be sure to read about the hot contested races in California, as we reported earlier this morning (two articles).

Globe Contributor Thomas Buckley:

Besides showing a rather intense distaste for Joe Biden, the exit polls reveal the economy, inflation, and abortion as top issues.

One poll asked whether “democracy was threatened” and got a 70 percent yes response.

Seems good for the Democrats?  Not really, because it does not appear if people were asked “threatened by WHAT?”

In other words, that 70 percent number – which seems high anyway – is made up of January 6-touting Dems and and angry at the Deep State Republicans, so it points to general national discontent but is far less relevant to specific voter decisions.

It’s like a “do you trust law enforcement?” query – Dems will say because of local cops, Reps will say no because of the FBI.”

Katy Grimes update 7:45 p.m. EST/4:45 p.m PST:

Sen. Tim Scott (R-South Carolina) and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) both win reelection to the U.S. Senate.

Evan Symon: 4:55 P.S.T.

We shouldn’t forget about that big bump that Republicans got a few weeks ago in polling. As FiveThirtyEight showed, economic worries and other lingering factors put a huge dent in support. I mean, look at the 27^th District House race between Garcia and Smith. Smith was still within striking distance until that surge hit. Look at the graph, or this one between Salas and Valadao. It looks like the Democrat line got hit by a car battery.

The GOP had such momentum going and an ad system in place that by the time that the races got close, the other side didn’t know what to do. No matter what happens tonight, Democratic leaders are going to do an autopsy on tonights elections and will not like what they will find.

Katy Grimes 5:01 p.m. PST:

Republican Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida  just won reelection to the U.S. Senate.

All day I have been asked if California can be saved. Maybe not in this election, but the parent revolution taking place is a big start. Parents are running for schools boards throughout the state, in what is a try grassroots movement. Expect a new generation of citizen representatives, and citizen politicians. Just a new generation of people running for office is overdue and welcome!

As for current California politics, there is no doubting that with Republicans throughout the country predicted to win elections – local, state and national – it has to impact California races. Especially House races. Remember, current House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy hails from California. If a Republican takeover is real in Congress, McCarthy will be House Speaker.

And I am hearing that there is Gavin Newsom fatigue – in California and especially in the rest of the country. As I asked earlier, did his star already burn brightly, and is it fading? Did he peak too early?

Thomas Buckley 5:10 p.m. PST:

DeSantis and Rubio win their races in Florida – as expected.

But what was unexpected are both the margins – the wins were by an easy 10 points – and the fact that both took Miami – yes, a large conservative Cuban population, but still has 20 percent more Democrats than Republicans.

A former Obama strategist said the result shows that the “Obama coalition is dead in Florida.”

Jon Coupal, President of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association 5:25p.m. PST:

“Proposition 30 should fail because it will only accelerate business flight out of California. Even Gavin Newsom understands that.”

Katy Grimes 5:50p.m. PST:

Republican Rep. Byron Donalds has been re-elected to Congress (R-Florida).

Republican Chris Sununu won reelection for governor in New Hampshire.

Former White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders, also a Republican, won election for governor in Arkansas, the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Florida is where ‘woke’ goes to die,” said Gov. Ron DeSantis, in his reelection acceptance/celebration speech.

Thomas Buckley 6:15 p.m. PST:

Usually when you win an election, your supporters shout “Four More Years!”

The crowd cheering Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ victory speech was chanting:

“Two More Years! Two More Years!”

Wishful thinking or inside knowledge RE his presidential ambitions?  Or just funny and clever?

Time will tell.

Thomas Buckley 6:35 p.m. PST:

In a bit of a surprise, the Democrats appear to have held Rhode Island’s second congressional district, a bellwether that could indicate the red wave may not be as big as many expected.

Though the Democrats have held the seat for 30 years, it appeared to many observers (myself included) that this bellwether seat was ripe to elect Republican Allan Fung.

Fung led b y about 2 points for most of the evening until the portion of the city of Providence – as deep a blue city as it gets (save California) – that is part of the district came in – late, of course – giving Democrat Seth Magaziner a huge boost.  In fact it appears that Fung’s loss in Providence made up the entirety of his loss district-wide. Currently, with about 95 percent of the vote in, Fung is down by about 3 percent.

For a bit of a deeper dive on the race – and even more about this year’s seemingly unsuccessful Democrat campaign strategy – you can check out this piece: https://thomas699.substack.com/p/the-danger-of-bubble-wrap

Thomas Buckley 7:30 p.m. PST:

Katy Grimes 8:15 p.m. PST/11:15 p.m. EST:

Republican J.D. Vance is projected to win/wins Ohio Senate race.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott “sailed to an easy victory Tuesday night,” meaning Francis “Beto” O’Rourke has again lost to a Republican again.

Republican Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp also sails to an easy victory against 2x Democrat challenger Stacey Abrams, 53.9% to 45.4%. Reports are that she conceded the race to Kemp, but voters want to know if she has conceded to both races, or just the 2022 election.

California Senator Alex Padilla (D-CA) won his first full-term to represent California in the United States Senate, yet the California Secretary of State shows only 7.2% of the votes have been counted. Gov. Gavin Newsom appointed Padilla in January 2021 to the Senate seat when then-Sen. Kamala Harris was sworn in at the Vice President.

Joel Kotkin, Kotkin, internationally-recognized authority on global, economic, political and social trends,  8:25 p.m. PST:

“It doesn’t look like a tsunami but a wave of sorts.

Sunbelt governors are getting re-elected easily, as they are known for good governance generally.

If not for Trumpian misfits, the Senate would be radically changed. Too bad the Democrats can’t make the Republicans nominate Trump!”

Katy Grimes 8:30 p.m. PST:

Michigan Governor, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer wins reelection against Republican challenger Tudor Dixon.

New York Governor, Democrat Kathy Hochul wins reelection against Republican challenger Lee Zeldin. BUT WAIT: Lee Zeldin refuses to concede promising big numbers from Long Island, the New York Post reported after midnight EST.

Republican J.D. Vance wins Ohio U.S. Senate race against Democrat Tim Ryan.

Katy Grimes again:

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is announced as the winner by FoxLA, with 9.9% of the vote recorded by the California Secretary of State.

Katy Grimes 8:45 p.m. PST:

LGBTQ Victory Fund announced former Long Beach Mayor Robert Garcia won the election for California’s 42nd Congressional District – with 0% of the vote recorded by the California Secretary of State.

Even the Governor’s race is only reporting 31.8% of the votes in:

Katy Grimes 8:50 p.m. PST:

The Sacramento Bee is reporting Proposition 1 has taken an early lead. It is the initiative to provide an absolute right to abortion in the state constitution under any and all circumstances, including the vile practice of partial birth abortion. The Bee calls the initiative “abortion rights,” however, the recent United States Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade actually “enshrined abortion rights” by sending the legal issue back to the states. California’s abortion law isn’t changing at all – it remains in tact.

Katy Grimes 9:10 p.m. PST: 

Did COVID cause certain governors to benefit?  Were citizens willing to admit their governors took the wrong course, or the right course? Was there Stockholm Syndrome involved? How do we explain the case of Michigan and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer where she was just reelected, yet her constituents suffered excessively and pointlessly – just as with California citizens under Gov. Gavin Newsom, who still holds a needless State of Emergency.

Also:

Notable: By 7:15 p.m.on Election Day in South Carolina, results already showed a win for Sen. Tim Scott. In California we will be waiting 30 days for certified election results, and our Governor is still clinging to his emergency Covid powers. Hmmm. What’s wrong with this picture?

Thomas Buckley 9:35 p.m. PST:

I’m seeing about 37 percent in with all the Democrats comfortably ahead, even Chen (in House race against Rep. Michele Steel). That being said, that is vote by mail and there should be a vote dump soon in the LA Mayor’s race – 50/50 there with again the vast majority mail in so that could mean happy Caruso.

Thomas Buckley 10:25 p.m. PST:

Thomas Buckley 11:10 pm:

Keep checking in for updates, commentary, and guest posts.