Assemblyman Low Narrowly Defeats Simitian For Second Place In 16th Congressional District Recount

The Santa Clara County Registrar of Voters announced on Wednesday that the recall on the deadlocked second place 16th Congressional election vote was finalized, with Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) narrowly beating Santa Clara County Supervisor and former state Senator Joe Simitian (D) by just 5 votes.

The tie vote can be traced back to November when Congresswoman Anna Eshoo (D-CA) announced that she would not run for reelection in 2024. Candidates from all over Silicon Valley and the Southwestern San Francisco Bay area announced runs within days of her announcement.  Former Saratoga City Councilor Rishi Kumar (D), Palo Alto Councilwoman Julie Lythcott-Haims (D), and former Menlo Park Mayor Peter Ohtaki (R) joined favorites Low and Simitian (D), with most analysts expecting a Low-Simitian matchup in November. However, the entrance of former San Jose Mayor and current Stanford professor Sam Liccardo in December quickly threw the race into the most open House race in the state.

Liccardo, who had promised not to run if Eshoo was still running, was suddenly the front runner in the race. Even more, Republican candidates, usually being relegated to 3rd or 4th place in primaries in the area, suddenly now had a chance with Liccardo severely fracturing the Democratic vote. Polls in January showed Liccardo in an insurmountable lead, with Simitian and Low, who had expected to face each other in earnest in November, now suddenly having to fight each other in March. Support levels generally stayed the same through February, but with GOP candidates seeing a surprising bump in support thanks to the U.S. Senate primary and the Republican presidential primary bringing out more than usual in the area.

On March 5th, results of the night showed that Liccardo had just about clinched a spot in November, but with Low, Simitian, and Ohtaki being within a few thousand votes of each other. The next day, straggling votes led Liccardo to pick up at least one of the spots, leading to a race of votes to still be counted for the others still in contention. Over the next several weeks, Low and Simitian jockeyed for control of second place, always being within a few dozen votes in the Santa Clara County and San Mateo County district.

Last month, all votes were finally officially counted. Liccardo came out in first with 38,489 votes, or 21.1% of the vote. However, in an unusual turn of events, both Low and Simitian stood at 30,249, or 16.6%, apiece. The next closest, Ohtaki, wound up with 23,275 votes, or 12.7%. While both Simitian and Low celebrated the tie, a petition by Jonathan Padilla, a former staffer for Liccardo, requested a manual recount. The recount began soon after, stretching across most of April as votes were manually counted.

Votes were finally tallied up on April 30th, leading to an announcement on Wednesday from election officials. According to officials, Low gained 11 votes in Santa Clara County and 1 in San Mateo County, with Simitian gaining 7 in Santa Clara County and none in San Mateo county. The final tally was Low with 30,261 votes and Simitian with 30,256 votes, a narrow gap of only 5 between them. The new results turned what was a rare three-way election in a California general election  to a two way Congressional race between Liccardo and Low.

Simitian was gracious in his defeat on Wednesday, tweeting out “The good news is the 16th congressional district’s long painful exercise counting the votes is over! The not-so-good news: we have come up short. I lost, and I concede. I trust the process, and I accept the result.”

The good news is the 16th congressional district’s long painful exercise counting the votes is over! The not-so-good news: we have come up short. I lost, and I concede. I trust the process, and I accept the result. My full statment and gratitude here: https://t.co/3qLRkTTXTh pic.twitter.com/5nLUbC4EiX

— Joe Simitian (@joesimitian) May 2, 2024

Meanwhile, Low thanked Simitian and looked forward to facing Liccardo in November.

“My team and I knew that succeeding the esteemed Anna Eshoo would be challenging, so we see a race ending in a tie followed by a recount as character building for your next representative in Congress,” said Low on X. “We are very excited that my advancement into the general election was reaffirmed and I now look forward to the real work of tackling the big issues facing our country like reproductive freedom and affordability. We extend our heartfelt thanks to each voter and supporter who played a crucial role in reaching this moment.

“This election reminds us that every single vote and form of participation matters. As we approach November, we anticipate a remarkable surge in voter engagement across diverse coalitions of voters. These groups backing our proven track record of delivering results will put us in a strong position to win in November. I want to express my gratitude to the dedicated staff of both Registrars of Voters for their meticulous efforts during this unique recount process, and to the dedicated leader who took this wild recount ride with me, Joe Simitian, whose decades of public service remain an inspiration to me.”

My team and I knew that succeeding the esteemed Anna Eshoo would be challenging, so we see a race ending in a tie followed by a recount as character building for your next representative in Congress.

We are very excited that my advancement into the general election was…

— Evan Low (@Evan_Low) May 1, 2024

Elections officials also breathed a sigh of relief at the end of such an unprecedented recount.

“Our elections staff has been working diligently for the past two weeks to conduct this unprecedented recount and ensure that the final results are complete and accurate,” Santa Clara Assistant Registrar of Voters Matt Morales. “This is the largest and most complex recount we have conducted, as well as our first machine recount on our new voting system.”

With the 16th Congressional election now set for November with Liccardo and Low as the candidates, pollsters in the region have noted that Liccardo now has a bigger advantage as a result.

“If it was a three-way race, then Liccardo would have been screwed because of how his San Jose base support would have been cut up,” explained Northern California pollster Paula Gonzalez to the Globe on Thursday. “But now, with just Low, Liccardo shines above and has more support.

“There is a big what-if in all this and that is who Simitian supports. Simitian has 30,000 supporters, and even if half of them follow how he supports a candidate, it can be the deciding factor on who wins. Low said a lot of nice things about Simitian in his post-recall count statement for a reason. He wants and needs his support to win. Liccardo is still the bigger name and favorite, but with Simitian’s support, Low can win. And Liccardo knows this, so his team will probably do some reaching out too and saying some nice things.

“This is an important Silicon Valley seat, and it will be fought hard for.”