The 2024 California U.S. Senate Race Schiff v. Garvey: Where It Currently Stands

Since the last update in early July, California’s U.S. Senate race between Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) and former pro baseball star Steve Garvey (R) has entered the dog days of summer. Both Schiff and Garvey found both honorable common ground and went to some of the nastiest fighting of the entire campaign. With the Trump assassination attempt and Biden’s announcement that he won’t run for reelection, both candidates even found time in the national spotlight. With less than 3 months to go before election day on November 5th, this is where the Senate race stands now.

What have the candidates been up to?

Let’s start with the Schiffster. Schiff started July by continually not saying whether or not he would be calling for Biden to step aside in the race. He didn’t even give a vote of confidence for Biden. He was just…there. Finally, after the Trump assassination attempt led to Trump surging in the polls, Schiff made his move and said he should step aside. Once Biden did leave, he fully backed Harris. Oh, he’s also had some rallies and fundraisers in there, but by now we’ve all gotten used to him going up to a podium in his Napa Valley garden party attire and him giving Schiffbot 2.0 speeches, so just think of those.

Garvey had a surprisingly successful July. After months of Schiff going after Garvey not committing on supporting Trump, Garvey managed to do the same to Schiff on Biden support for awhile. Then came the fact that Garvey managed to outraise Schiff in Q2 2024. It was only by $1.2 million, with Schiff still having much more in total than him, but the Democrats losing to the Republicans in fundraising in California in a major race is something that hasn’t happened in quite some time.

And for those looking for some sort of hope that the race is civil, both candidates put aside their differences and united behind condemning the assassination attempt on Trump. There’s still a line politicians won’t cross, and regardless of political thought, it’s good to see that Schiff and Garvey are on the right side.

Who is backing who?

Nothing has changed since a month ago. We’ll see a flurry soon, especially if Schiff loses ground. But right now in the world of endorsements, it’s pretty much operating on the fact that you know who is in their corner.

How is polling going?

The last poll was early July where Schiff was up over Garvey 64% to 33%. According to the June 2024 PPIC poll, Schiff was leading Garvey 62% to 37%. However, as previously noted, PPIC polls should be taken with a grain of salt. The more accurate Berkeley IGS is due to come out soon, as are others, which should paint a more accurate picture of where things are.

Until we see some other outlets, pollsters the Globe talked to have said that it is likely that Garvey really has a high 30’s, low 40’s mark, with Garvey being low sixties, high fifties. It’s a closer race than the PPIC is making it out to be, but right now, they’re the only game in town. Well, except for some unscientific viewer polls. KTLA’s last month actually had Garvey ahead. Does this mean he is ahead? No. But he is a lot closer than 33%.

What is coming up next?

Garvey and Schiff have been giving more and more speeches. Fun! Garvey is getting more comfortable with them, but still needs a bit more polish. Schiff is great at them but is still sounding like his speechwriter is Microsoft Excel. But Garvey is getting more money than Schiff right now, which is telling.

Things are going to get more heated between the two. Debate season is upcoming, and the two going after each other will be the big highlight. Schiff will probably fundraise more just to beat Garvey again Q3 as well as try and get him in some swing areas. Garvey will branch out from SoCal more and more. An appearance in Northern California or two with some wildfire fighters would be a great idea, as North State rarely gets candidate visits.

Oh, and ads. They are coming big time. The political ad/normal ad ratio come late September is going to be pretty crazy. A lot of images with veterans and reading books to uninterested children. August is usually the lightest out of all the ‘hard campaign’ months, so maybe expect some awkward photos of them eating carnival or fair food.

Election day this year will be Tuesday November 5th.