Congresswoman Steel Retakes Lead In 45th District Race According To New Poll

According to a new poll released on Thursday, Congresswoman Michelle Steel (R-CA) retook the lead over Attorney Derek Tran (D) in the Los Angeles County/Orange County 45th Congressional District, bouncing back after being down in the polls for the last two months.

Ever since retaking the district back from blue wave Congressman Harley Rouda in 2020, Democrats have targeted the District as one of the most wanted in not only the state, but the country. In 2022 she managed to defeat Democratic challenger Jay Chen with just over 52% of the vote, beating out her 2020 51% win over Rouda. And earlier this year, Steel looked like she was going to raise that total even more when she garnered nearly 55% of the vote in the March Primary.

However, polls then quickly turned over the summer. While Steel was up in May in polls, by July it was a 47%-47% tie. Tran, aided by targeting Asian communities in the District and Vice President Kamala Harris’ goodwill going down ballot, was soon up, with him being two points ahead in September.

Steel fought back though. In the last month, with Steel and other incumbent Congressional members hitting the trail more and more, she was back in the 45th, focusing on the key Asian areas that Tran had been going after. And while Democrats have been trying to remain ahead by going after Steel’s voting record, Tran has gone from scandal to scandal. This has included lying about being able to speak fluent Vietnamese, false claims about his military record, and then the biggest roadblock so far, his legal career – such as representing a rapist for profit and defending someone who had put up a noose in his office.

Turnaround for Steel

Meanwhile, the Harris bump withered away, with an unexpected surge of Latino voters helping Steel with another critical demo. Efforts to increase GOP registered voters in Orange County also helped further expand her base, moving the Cook Political Report to relist the race as a tossup. This led to the new American Viewpoint poll on Thursday that showed a drastic turnaround for Steel in the past month. According to the poll, Steel is now ahead of Tran 45%-41%, with 8% undecided. The poll also proved that the scandals are the primary factor for Tran sinking in the polls, as Steel’s favorable to unfavorable ratio is 42 percent to 36 percent, compared to 33 percent to 27 percent for Tran. And that is on top of Steel managing that lead despite Trump being 4 points down in the District to Harris.

“Most races are lucky to have a shift of a few points in the span of a month, especially in September and October,” said Heath Becker, a New York-based political analyst who focuses on swing districts, to the Globe on Thursday. “But Steel moved up by six points. And, even if the poll was off by half, that still means a three point jump and she is still back in the lead. Whenever there is a party backed poll, Republican or Democrat, there is always going to be that pinch of salt there. But here the numbers hold out in her favor.

“The Democrats really wanted to take away this seat from the GOP this year. In fact, there are so many close House races in California this year, and right now, it could be that Democrats gain 5 to the GOP moving up by 2 or so. That is quite the range. And Steel’s district, that had been firmly in the D lean category for the last few months. But like you said it is now a tossup. Some publications are actually giving her the lean in it since Tran shot himself in the foot, reloaded, then shot it again.

“Never count out a workhorse incumbent. Tran made that mistake with Steel after getting comfortable.”