New Poll Finds 73% Of Voters Favor Prop. 36

A new Public Policy Institute of California poll released on Thursday found that 73% of all California voters are in favor of  Proposition 36, which will make multiple changes to California drug and theft laws.

The road to Prop. 36, and its current popularity, dates back 10 years ago to Proposition 47, which passed by voters in 2014, not only changed California law so that most theft and drug felonies are only charged as misdemeanors, but it also allowed convicted felons for to reclassify those convictions to misdemeanors. It also helped solidify the $950 felony/misdemeanor threshold for thefts that was first brought up through AB 2372 in 2010.

With crime going up as a result of Prop. 47, many began working to craft a new proposition to help reform those laws. The result was Prop. 36, which qualified for the November 2024 ballot to be voted on exactly one decade to the day that Prop 47 was passed. Under Prop. 36, punishments for many drug and theft crimes will be increased once again, including making some current misdemeanor thefts back into felonies, lengthening felony sentences, and requiring that felony sentences be served in prison. In addition, it will also create a new treatment-focused court process for some drug possession crimes, and require that some felonies be served in prison.

Out of the gate, Prop. 36 proved to be very popular. Many retail and voter groups signed on to the initiative. Unusually, Prop. 36 also didn’t have the normal party and geography divides, with even typically liberal Los Angeles and San Francisco, both of which have seen rises in crime and “smash-and-grab” robberies in recent years, providing support.

However, this also came after many attempts to “Stop the amendments against Prop. 47” and some scare tactics of some Prop. 47 supporters saying that some crime bills would be automatically repealed should Prop. 36 pass. Indeed, an uptick of crime enhancement bills were passed the last several sessions, with Governor Gavin Newsom, a Prop. 36 opponent, signing many of them. But many pointed out that it was too little, too late to stop the support for Prop. 36. Recent high-profile crimes also boosted support numbers, making any gains made by the bill passages to draw support away from Prop 36 passing ultimately moot.

In August, a Los Angeles Times/UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll found that 56% of Californians supported Prop 36, with only 23% opposing it. Over two thirds of conservatives and moderates were for it, and even around half of all liberal voters were for it as well,  due in part to the crime swings in major cities. Support jumped significantly last month where the previous PPIC poll found that 71% of voters were in favor of Prop 36, with only 26% in opposition. Political affiliation support was also in the majority across the spectrum, ranging from 85% Republican support to 63% support amongst Democrats. Every region also had massive support, including Los Angeles County serving as the bellwether with 71% support and the normally finnicky San Francisco Bay area pulling 64% support. In all, Prop 36 had a massive 45 point lead.

73% of voters in support of Prop 36

On Thursday, it was found that support has only grown for the proposition. According to the new PPIC poll, 73% of voters are now in favor of Prop 36, with only 25% against and 2% undecided. Political affiliation support also rose across the board, with 86% of Republicans, 72% of independents, and 67% of Democrats all in favor. No region in California also went below 70% support, with the San Francisco Bay area rising to a whopping 73% support. What had been a 45 point lead last month somehow shot even higher to a 48 point lead.

Governor Newsom has continued to rally against Prop. 36, saying on the official Stop Prop 36 site that ” “Prop. 36 takes us back to the 1980s, mass incarceration, it promotes a promise that can’t be delivered. I would ask those who support it, particularly mayors: Where are the treatment slots, where are the beds? Twenty-two counties don’t have one residential treatment facility. Twenty-two counties don’t have one. I mean, they’re lying to you.”

While Newsom and the California Democratic Party oppose Prop. 36, many more Californians support initiative totaling now nearly three-quarters of the state. This has included the odd matchup of supporters including the California Republican Party, San Francisco Mayor London Breed, and the California District Attorneys Association.

With the Proposition polling at 73%, polling experts have said that it is now a virtual certainty for it to pass.

“With so many close races this election, Prop 36 has now taken a back seat because of just how popular it is,” said Rita Walker, a pollster focusing on crime-oriented propositions and ballot initiatives, to the Globe on Thursday. “I mean 73%. It isn’t very often you see a proposition for anything do that well. But, with public safety a huge concern in California, it’s easy to see why this has so much support. Voters want harsher laws against criminals, and here, they obviously think the state has been down a bad path.

“Newsom and state Democrats tried to appease voters by passing a bunch of laws last month, but that was like trying to stop a freight train with a bicycle. Voters wanted more done.”

No more polls are expected to be released on Prop 36, as the election is now 12 days away and support remains high amongst voters.