A Little Exit Poll

Today I went to a very “bellwether” voting district and asked a few questions.

This was not a “scientific” exit poll, but if the answers represent reality then we are in for a long night.

The entire poll was anonymous – suffice to say the demographic cross-section did reflect the nation (a slight lean in registration to the Democrats and a wide variety of ethnicities and incomes)  as do the past voting trends in that district.  In other words, the results there usually track very closely to the national federal results (Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, etc.)

I only talked to 16 people  (and only asked about the presidential race) but, to be honest, the answers were fascinating.

The topline?  Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were even at 8 to 8 – a tie.

But probably the most telling thing I found was why Harris voters are supporting her.  Four of the five female Harris supporters all mentioned reproductive rights and women’s health care (i.e., aboprtion) as their top reason for voting for Kamala, while each of Harris’ male supporters said they voted for her because they hate Donald Trump.

And the fifth female Harris supporters said she just simply could not get over the events of January 6 and how Trump “threw his vice-president under the bus.”

The split could not be more telling and reflects the pervasive gender gap in the polling during the campaign.

As to Trump’s supporters, three issues were the most important, the first two being the economy and the the disaster at the border.

Note –unlike with Harris supporters, there was no difference between male and female Trump supporters as to why they support him.

The third issue mentioned by multiple Trump supporters was the culture as a whole and its degradation over the past few years. In other words, it seems Trump people were voting on larger, general societal issues while Harris backers were focused on far more personal topics.

I also asked how people thought their “circle of friends” were going to vote.  Trump supporters indicated strongly for Trump, but the Harris backers admitted they knew Trump had some support from people they know.

Still mostly Harris, but not quite as unified.

As to what people wish they had heard more about during the campaign, the issues of housing and the solvency of Social Security came up, but most – except for one who talked about election reform and removing dark money from the process – did not say the campaigns really “missed” major topics.  

Censorship and the pandemic response, anyone? But I digress.

In no particular order, here a few interesting quotes from my chats:

“I wasn’t sure and then I saw the Joe Rogan interview and I saw Trump in a different light, he was more reined in – that was why I voted for him.”

“I’m not thrilled with either choice, but I voted to make sure Trump was not elected.”

In response to the question about their circle of friends, two people who said they were most likely split also said actually quite heartening things:

“We all hope we can talk about things and not just yell.”

“We’re pretty divided, but we are still friends.”

And one married couple – she voted Harris, he voted Trump – each echoed those sentiments:

“We disagree, but we’re still under the same roof.”

Good for them!  

And great advice for all of us.