Duarte Close to Victory in Close House District 13 Race

Two years ago, a little known pistachio farmer and businessman from Modesto named John Duarte managed to get a surprise victory in California’s 13th Congressional District, defeating then-Assem. blyman Adam Gray by 564 votes. It was the closest House election of the 2022 midterms in the country, not even being called until nearly December, and it helped secure the House for the GOP. Gray vowed to run again. 2024 was gearing up to be yet another showdown for the 13th Congressional district, which spans the San Joaquin Valley, covering, all of Merced County, most of Madera County, and parts of Stanislaus, Fresno, and San Joaquin Counties.

Initially, 2024 didn’t look much different. The primary decided it would be Gray and Duarte yet again, with every election prediction hub labeling the race as a toss-up. Polls showed that Gray had a narrow 46% to 45% lead with a 9% undecided vote and 5.6% margin of error going into election day. Gray also ran on more DINO and moderate stances than in 2022 to appeal to centrist and undecided voters. However, Gray had been hit particularly hard in the weeks before the election following new information coming out that he had given around $40,000 to family members from previous campaign funds. Duarte, meanwhile, managed to win debates and shored up critical centrist and Latino support. Trump also managing to help reawaken the GOP in California also brought in support.

On election day, initial results  showed that surge. Duarte was up over Gray 56,785 to 53,596, or 51.4% to 48.6% with only about half the vote in. Like many other races, it was expected that mail-in votes would melt away some of his lead, with Gray possibly even coming out ahead this week. But the updated results from the state this week have shown that this hasn’t really happened, surprising many election watchers who were expecting something of a 2022 repeat. As of Wednesday evening, Duarte stood at 79,456 votes and Gray at 75,693 with a total of 73% of the vote in. In terms of percentages, it is at 51.2% to 48.8%. Roughly a quarter of the entire vote came in, with Gray only improving by .2% instead of the expected 1% or more.

As a result, some outlets began calling the race on Thursday. However, as it is still close, most have not officially called it. But the threshold is close, with Duarte likely to be announced as the victor soon. While the GOP officially took control of the House early on Wednesday, the party would like as many more races as possible to go their way to create a buffer on House votes, while Democrats are fighting to make it as close as possible. As California still has a few open House elections yet to be decided, the state is critical for both parties. A now all-but-assured Duarte victory would help ensure that.

“Duarte getting reelected would be a big boost,” Anne Granger, a researcher who keeps track of close House races in Western states, explained to the Globe Wednesday. “It would show the district is now firmly Republican, but it would also, like you said, give the GOP another for sure vote in case there are maverick voters on important things the party wants passed. This is one more for that.

“He’s up by that much with 3/4ths of the votes in. Unless Gray suddenly begins to get a whole lot of votes from somewhere, he’s going to have to concede to his rival. Again.”

Vote totals are expected to be updated by the state on Friday.