California Democrats’ Musical Chairs for Governor 2026

Politico first reported that California Attorney General Rob Bonta has decided to not run for Governor and will instead run for re-election in 2026. As Attorney General and a quasi-gubernatorial candidate Bonta cast himself as a leader of the resistance against President Donald Trump, in an already crowded field potentially including former Vice President Kamala Harris who is “keeping her options open.” Here is where everyone stands in the latest round of Democrat musical chairs for Governor of California.

Before Bonta dropped out, the Democrat candidates for Governor included: Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis (D-San Francisco; $5.7 million), Attorney General Rob Bonta (D-Alameda; $5.2 million), businessman Stephen Cloobeck (D-Los Angeles; $3.4 million), former Mayor of Los Angeles Antonio Villaraigosa (D-Los Angeles; $3.3 million), former State Senate Pro Tempore Toni Atkins (D-San Diego; $3.3 million), Superintendent of Instruction Tony Thurmond (D-Richmond; $1.3 million), and former State Controller Betty Yee (D-San Francisco; $1.2 million). Other potential candidates include former Vice President Kamala Harris (D-Los Angeles), former Representative Katie Porter (D-Irvine), and former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra (D-Los Angeles).

Declared

• Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis (D-San Francisco; $5.7 million)

• Businessman Stephen Cloobeck (D-Los Angeles; $3.4 million)

• Former Mayor of Los Angeles Antonio Villaraigosa (D-Los Angeles; $3.3 million)

• Superintendent of Instruction Tony Thurmond (D-Richmond; $1.3 million)

Withdrawn/Withdrawing

• Attorney General Rob Bonta (D-Alameda; $5.2 million) → Attorney General

• Former State Senate Pro Tempore Toni Atkins (D-San Diego; $3.3 million) → Lieutenant Governor

• Former State Controller Betty Yee (D-San Francisco; $1.2 million) → Treasurer

Potential

• Former Vice President Kamala Harris (D-Los Angeles)

• Former Representative Katie Porter (D-Irvine)

• Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra (D-Los Angeles)

In California’s open primary, candidates must have a reasonable chance to come in second. Bonta, as part of the Bay Area Cabal that dominates California politics, overlaps with the donor class supporting Kounalakis. Conversely, Bonta has no strong opposition for re-election as Attorney General, already traditionally the second most powerful statewide office. Fundraising didn’t significantly increase for either Kounalakis or Bonta, suggesting donors and party bosses behind closed doors wanted resolution.

Likewise, Atkins and Yee appear poised to exit and switch to running for Lieutenant Governor and Treasurer respectively. This positions Atkins, who has had the support but is not from the Bay, against current Treasurer Fiona Ma (D-San Francisco; $3.9 million). Yee and Ma share the same base, and Ma previously switched to run for Lieutenant Governor. Thurmond doesn’t have a pathway for Governor, and will also likely drop out when he is satisfied with his restitution.

This leaves the declared candidates Kounalakis in first, followed by Cloobeck and Villaragosa competing for second. Although a Democrat donor, Cloobeck is an outsider. Villaragosa previously ran for Governor, finishing in third in 2018. Although a former Mayor of Los Angeles and Speaker of the Assembly, Villaragosa fell out of favor with the powerful teacher unions and in any event isn’t from the Bay.

However, Kounalakis’ position isn’t secure either, and is a former mentee of Harris, whom she considers a “friend.” Polling in October, before the Presidential election, unsurprisingly showed Harris has a significant advantage in name recognition. Harris raised over $1 billion in 2024, however that was for potential access to power as President. As a Senator running for President, Harris raised $43 million before dropping out prior to the Iowa Caucus in 2019. For comparison, Governor Gavin Newsom with minimal in-state competition raised $47.6 million in 2018 and $25 million in 2022. Governor Jerry Brown raised $36.5 million in 2010 and $18.6 million in 2014. This suggests intraparty Democrat control in California is worth no more than $50 million, of which $15-20 million has already been committed. The donor class and party bosses appear to be either divided or are deferential to Harris – for now.

Likewise, Porter is another potential disruptor, and has favorable polling. As a Representative, Porter was a top fundraiser and raised $32 million to replace the late Senator Diane Feinstein in 2024, coming in third to now Senator Adam Schiff and Republican Steve Garvey. Party choice Schiff raised $48 million. To her advantage and disadvantage, Porter’s progressive support is independent of the formal party. She lost favor with party bosses, preempting Feinstein who didn’t want to retire, ignoring party seniority running against Schiff, and then exposing political machinations.

Becerra is also reportedly considering running for Governor and was favored by the party to replace Harris as Attorney General. He raised $7.8 million in 2018, but then only $1.9 million before he was appointed to the Biden Administration. Donors opposed competition between Koualakis and Bonta, as well as Atkins and Yee, and appear to be waiting on Harris. Becerra likely doesn’t have enough institutional support for Governor. That leaves Kounalakis or Harris – but not both – potentially Porter, followed by Cloobeck and Villaragosa.

However, the largest uncertainty is another potential recall of Newsom, concurrent with the 2026 election. In the 2003 Recall, Governor Gray Davis campaigned against the recall and failed to stop Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante from running as a viable alternative. In the 2021 Recall, Newsom successfully prevented another Democrat from running. Repeating this strategy would send mixed messages for Democrats running for the regular election. Worse, if a Republican or any challenger won, and became the incumbent.

What does the game of musical chairs of Democrats waiting for party elders to retire or expire, mean for Californians? Californians don’t matter, to paraphrase Governor Gavin Newsom, in the “Great State of Nancy Pelosi.” In a single party state, advancement is through the party, not the people. Their only ideology is power.