Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Proposition 50 Campaigns

In a close election, the messaging battle leaves the door open for former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger to tip the balance in his effort to keep the independent California Citizens Redistricting Commission in place, which he helped create.

Governor Gavin Newsom who is behind the effort to undo the commission-he says temporarily—is running the big expensive yes campaign. He is certain because Californians largely disapprove of Trump he can rally enough Democratic voters to support Prop 50 which he believes will elect more Democrats to Congress to stop Trump’s agenda.

Newsom drove the Legislature to put Prop. 50 on the ballot to gain as many as five more Democratic seats in congress to offset efforts by Republican controlled states to add more Republicans in congress via unusual mid-decade redistricting efforts.

Newsom’s first TV ad says Prop. 50 gives power to the people. While he backs this assertion because voters will be making the decision on Prop. 50, it is a superficial argument because the truth is if Prop. 50 passes it’s real effect will shift power away from the people to self interested politicians to draw their own congressional district lines.

While California is a Democratic leaning state, aspects of the Newsom plan could backfire. He has surrounded himself with a coterie of hard left politicians such as Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. California voters don’t always follow left-wing philosophy as witnessed in numerous statewide ballot measures including the tough on crime Proposition 36 recently passed by voters.

In the meantime, former U.S. Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy’s effort to run a $100 million campaign to bring Republicans to the polls could actually receive a boost because of Newsom’s anti-Trump message. While Trump voters are said to not show up in great numbers if Trump is not on the ballot, Newsom’s constant drumbeat of attacks on Trump could motivate Trump voters to come out to vote.

While some Republicans argue it is unfair to change the commission rules mid-decade instead of traditionally after the census, that is not what the ballot fight is all about. It’s not fairness, it’s fear of Trump versus trepidation about politicians gaining power.

There are other campaigns on both sides. Some Silicon Valley activists are funding a yes campaign to reach out to less likely voters. A campaign funded by billionaire Charles Munger Jr. who funded the original efforts creating the independent redistricting commission is in full swing pushing the fairness argument.

Polls indicate voters support the independent commission, especially independent or decline to state voters.

Enter Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Schwarzenegger, an affirmed political reformer who supports independent redistricting commissions across the country, and a Republican who opposes Trump, is well suited to deliver the message to independent voters. An early Citrin/UC Berkeley-Politico poll on the redistricting commission showed independent voters in favor of the commission by 79% to 21%.

Schwarzenegger argued in a recent speech, “It doesn’t make any sense to me that because we have to fight Trump, we have to become Trump.”

Unlike the campaigns designed to rally Democrats and Republicans to the cause, Schwarzenegger can credibly deliver the message that the ballot measure is truly about giving more power to politicians, a message that has long standing import with voters.

The former governor’s insight can be decisive in this hostile political environment. Its effectiveness will be tested on how much Schwarzenegger will engage in the campaign and if independent voters will go to the polls.