Arizona Republicans Held $1.5 Million Meta Ad Advantage As Democrats Won Major Races

Republican-aligned advertisers spent an estimated $1.5 million more than their Democratic counterparts on Meta ads concerning Arizona races during the 2026 election season, even as Democrats retained the governor’s office, attorney general’s office, and secretary of state’s office and flipped a Republican-held congressional seat.

Vipima’s analysis of Meta’s political advertising archive estimated $5 million in Republican-side spending and $3.5 million on the Democratic side between May 4 and November 4. Based on those rounded figures, Republican-aligned advertisers spent approximately 43% more.

The Associated Press called the three statewide contests for Democratic incumbents Katie Hobbs, Kris Mayes, and Adrian Fontes. Democrat Amish Shah subsequently won Congressional District 1, defeating Republican Jay Feely in the race for the seat vacated by Rep. David Schweikert.

The governor’s race accounted for the largest concentration of Arizona spending in Vipima’s dataset and provides its clearest comparison between a Republican advertising advantage and a Democratic victory.

According to Vipima’s race-level analysis, Republican-side Meta spending in the gubernatorial contest reached approximately $3.1 million, compared with $1.2 million on the Democratic side. That placed Republican-aligned spending at roughly 2.6 times the Democratic total.

Hobbs nevertheless defeated Republican Andy Biggs. ABC15’s results posted at 11:28 a.m. Thursday showed Hobbs with 1,235,630 votes to Biggs’ 949,421, a lead of 286,209 votes.

Outside organizations accounted for much of the Republican advertising directed at that race. Vipima’s governor-specific breakdown attributed approximately $2.1 million to the Turning Point PAC page and $335,400 to Turning Point Action’s page. Together, those two pages accounted for approximately $2.44 million of the contest’s estimated $4.4 million in Meta advertising.

The same breakdown attributed approximately $949,000 to Hobbs’ page. Separately, Vipima’s advertiser profile for Biggs recorded approximately $196,900 across 36 ads paid for by Biggs for Arizona, with some spending classified as federal rather than state-related.

The statewide Republican advantage did not extend uniformly to individual congressional campaigns.

Vipima’s candidate profiles show that Shah’s committee spent approximately $43,400 on Meta, compared with Feely’s $28,800. In southern Arizona, JoAnna Mendoza’s committee spent approximately $114,000, compared with approximately $4,000 for Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani—a ratio of roughly 28-to-1.

The following comparisons concern the candidates’ own committee advertising recorded by Vipima. Outside-group spending is additional:

Sources: Vipima candidate profiles and KTAR’s November 5 congressional results report.

Crane’s lead came despite Nez’s larger recorded committee expenditure on Meta. Hamadeh held both a spending advantage in that comparison and a lead in the vote count. Republican Mark Lamb also led in District 5.

Republicans entered the election holding six of Arizona’s nine congressional seats. With Shah’s victory and Mendoza’s lead, the standings in Thursday’s report would produce a five-seat Democratic delegation and four Republican seats if the remaining leads hold.

Republican difficulties extended into other statewide contests. The Thursday ABC15 snapshot showed Democrat Nick Mansour leading Republican Elijah Norton for treasurer and Democrat Teresa Leyba Ruiz leading Republican Kimberly Yee for superintendent of public instruction. Democratic Corporation Commission candidates Clara Pratte and Jonathon Hill occupied the two winning positions in the two-seat contest. Those races were not marked as called in that snapshot.

The spending figures describe one portion of the campaigns’ advertising operations. Vipima’s methodology uses midpoints of Meta’s disclosed spending ranges, with model-assisted classifications of advertisers and races. Its reporting period encompasses primary and general-election activity.

Spending on other platforms can substantially change the comparison. For example, Ciscomani’s profile separately lists $158,400 to $204,900 in Google and YouTube advertising, beyond the approximately $4,000 recorded on Meta.

Television, mail, and other campaign expenditures also fall outside the statewide Meta totals. The available data establishes that Republican-aligned advertisers held an overall advantage on those platforms while Democrats won several major Arizona contests. It does not establish how much those advertisements influenced voters or explain the election’s outcome.