Nevada AG Aaron Ford Leads Suit Against Kalshi as Prediction Markets Eclipse $1 Billion on Super Bowl Pools

Nevada Attorney General Aaron D. Ford and the Nevada Gaming Control Board filed a civil enforcement lawsuit Tuesday against prediction market operator KalshiEX LLC, seeking a court declaration that its sports event contracts constitute illegal unlicensed wagering and a permanent injunction to shut them down in the state.

The action, filed in Carson City District Court, follows the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals’ denial on February 17 of Kalshi’s emergency motion for a stay in its federal challenge to Nevada regulators. A temporary restraining order is anticipated shortly.

Ford, who is named in the suit in his official capacity, has repeatedly warned that Kalshi’s platform threatens Nevada’s regulated sports betting industry. In a December 2025 statement co-leading a bipartisan 37-state amicus brief in a related Fourth Circuit case, Ford declared: “Nevada is the foundational home of sports wagering, and states, not federal financial regulators, have decades of experience protecting consumers, preserving the integrity of sporting events, and addressing real world harms such as underage gambling.” He added that he was “proud to co-lead this effort… to make clear that Congress did not quietly take away states’ authority to regulate sports wagering.”

The AG’s office had previously notified federal courts of its intent to pursue state-level enforcement, citing “substantial irreparable harms” to Nevada’s $18+ billion gaming sector from Kalshi’s rapid growth and marketing of its products as “legal sports betting in all 50 states.”

Kalshi’s Explosive Growth and Largest Betting Pools

Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange, allows users to trade “yes/no” event contracts on real-world outcomes. While it began with elections and economics, sports contracts now dominate its volume.

The platform’s sports markets reached unprecedented scale during Super Bowl LX in February 2026. Kalshi reported more than $1 billion in total trading volume on game day alone — a daily record and a 2,700%+ increase from the prior year. 

Key pools included:

• Over $113 million on which song Bad Bunny would open his halftime show with.  
• $47 million on which artists would perform alongside him.  
• Tens of millions on game winner, point spread, total, MVP, player props, Super Bowl advertisements, and announcer mentions.

Combined with rival Polymarket, Super Bowl-related prediction market volume exceeded $1.63 billion across hundreds of contracts. Other major recent Kalshi pools have included:

• $174 million (and growing) on who President Trump will nominate as Federal Reserve Chair.  
• Tens of millions on 2028 Democratic presidential nominee and NBA champion markets.

These volumes have coincided with a reported decline in Nevada’s traditional Super Bowl wagering handle, which hit its lowest level in a decade.

Kalshi maintains its products are federally approved financial instruments, not gambling, and has fought similar enforcement in multiple states. Nevada regulators counter that the contracts function as sports pools under state law (NRS 463.160 et seq.) and must comply with licensing, age restrictions, and consumer protections.

The company has deep California roots: it was originally incorporated with a principal address in San Francisco, maintains California-governed terms in some filings, and is integrated with platforms like Robinhood Markets (headquartered in Menlo Park). 

California tribal gaming interests — including Blue Lake Rancheria, Chicken Ranch Rancheria, and Picayune Rancheria of Chukchansi Indians — have separately sued Kalshi in federal court, alleging revenue diversion from their casinos.

The Ninth Circuit’s ruling carries weight in California and other Western states. 

Observers expect the Carson City case to proceed quickly, with an injunction hearing likely in the coming weeks. The Trump administration has signaled support for prediction markets in related federal litigation, creating further tension with state regulators. On Tuesday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission maintained  it is the exclusive regulator for prediction market operators in the U.S.