Trump Retains Massive California Presidential Primary Race Lead

A new poll released late on Monday shows that former President Donald Trump has continued to dominate the California Presidential Primary race, coming in with a massive 66% of those polled.

Nationally, Trump has led the GOP primary race since polls began in earnest in early 2023. While Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was less than ten points away in polls in the opening months of 2023, the former President surged ahead throughout the rest of the year and into 2024. Nationally, amongst Republicans, he is at 63%, with the nearest competitor, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, far behind at 12% nationally.

In California, the story has been similar, with Trump leading over either DeSantis or Haley since the beginning of 2023. According to the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) poll released on Monday, Trump has maintained his large lead with 66% of the vote. The nearest competitor, Haley, received only 11% of voters in the poll, with DeSantis a close third with 8%, Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie received both 3% and 2% respectively, but both have suspended their respective campaigns in the last few weeks, with Ramaswamy’s announcement coming in Monday night following Trump’s victory in the Iowa Caucus election.

“In a poll of California Republicans completed last week in advance of today’s Iowa caucuses, the latest Berkeley IGS Poll finds former President Donald Trump in a strong position to achieve that threshold in the state’s upcoming March 5 presidential primary election,” said IGS Director Mark DiCamillo on Monday. “The poll finds that two-thirds of those considered most likely to vote in the California Republican primary (66%) now intend to cast their ballot for Trump, up from 57% in late October. His nearest competitor is now former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who is favored by 11%. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who at one time led Trump in California last February, has seen his support steadily decline and is now the choice of just 8% of GOP voters.”

While President Biden is all but certain to win California in the 2024 Presidential election in November, a win for Trump in the California primary, or getting at least half of the statewide vote, would be huge for him getting the nomination. With California having 169 convention delegates, they represent 14% of what a candidate would need to win the primary.

“Trump’s lead is incredible, especially considering the four lawsuits currently out there against him,” added Adrian Grady a pollster in Central California, to the Globe on Tuesday. “Trump has a lot of support from Republicans in California, and he often comes out here. Notice in his speeches he never bad mouths California itself, which other candidates have, but the policies and lawmakers. He, as well as other Republicans, get a lot of campaign dollars out here too.”

“He’s got two thirds of the vote should these polls stay at these levels come primary day. Right there, he has the votes needed for all delegates, and it makes him getting the nod automatically much more quicker.”

While other primary polls of GOP candidates will likely come out in the coming months, Trump is unlikely to fall too much in polling barring any legal issues that could bar him from running for office this year.

“Should something like that happen, which is a possibility, I mean, who do you want, Haley or DeSantis? There is no really strong secondary candidate,” continued Grady.

The California primary is to be held on March 5th, with by-mail ballots expected to be sent out soon.