2026 Gubernatorial Poll: Rep. Katie Porter Currently Leads Field Despite Not Declaring A Run For Governor

According to a new University of Southern California and California State University, Long Beach poll, the current most popular candidate for Governor is one who hasn’t even declared: Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA).

Gubernatorial candidates have been slowly trickling into the Gubernatorial race since April 2023 when Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis became the first major candidate to declare her intent to run a full three and a half years before the election. Since then, on the Democratic side, she has been joined by six others, including the major candidates of State Superintendent Tony Thurmond, Senator Toni Atkins (D-San Diego), Former State Controller Betty Yee, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. On the GOP side, no major candidate has come forward yet, although two have declared so far, including Vice President of Zacky Farms, Leo Zacky.

For both sides there are also tons of potential nominees who have either said they are interested or are heavily speculated to. For the Democrats, Attorney General Rob Bonta, Porter, 2022 L.A. Mayoral candidate Rick Caruso, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, Senator Laphonza Butler (D-CA) and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass have all been named. The GOP has fewer potential major candidates, with State Senator and 2022 Gubernatorial candidate Brian Dahle (R-Bieber), Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, and Fox New Host and former advisor to UK Prime Minister David Cameron Steve Hilton all currently on the list.

However, despite the large number of declared and potential candidates with big names, few polls have been made of the election, as attention is currently on 2024 races. But a few have been done, Most recently, a Tulchin Research poll found that both Dahle and Villaraigosa were leading with 13% each. Kounalakis and Hilton followed with 10% each, Yee with 7%, and Atkins and Thurmond with 4%. A whopping 40% were undecided.

The USC/CSU Long Beach Poll, in comparison, shifted things differently. Released during the weekend, two different polls were conducted: one with declared candidates and the other with speculative candidates thrown in. According to the declared candidate poll, Villaraigosa leads with 7.6% in favor of him becoming Governor. Kounalakis and Yee tied for second with 4.5%. Both Atkins and Thurmond didn’t even receive 3%. Stunningly, 16.5% said they would skip the election with 61% saying that they didn’t know who to vote for, indicating that the election was still too far away for most voters to make a decision.

Porter ahead in speculative candidate poll

Things were drastically different in the speculative candidate poll however. The poll showed that the leader, by a wide margin, was Porter, with 14%. The next closest candidate, Dahle, had only 5.3%. Going down the list at 3% or above, Bianco had 4.7%, Hilton 4%, and Bonta with 3.5%. The closest declared candidates were Villaraigosa and Yee with 2.6% each. However, 49.7% still indicated that they didn’t know who to vote for in the election yet.

Commentators noted that while the polls found that it was way too early to get a good bead on things, it showed that the GOP needed at least one big name to rally around, Democrats were still fractured on who to vote for, and that Democrats should heavily consider trying to get Porter to run because of her popularity.

“Porter is going to be out of a job come January thanks to her giving up her House seat for that completely botched Senate run,” said gubernatorial pollster Guillermo Williams to the Globe on Monday. “While this poll showed her to be popular, her unlikability factor is still pretty high too, so if you are a Porter fan don’t get too excited by this poll. We know she is going to run for something else soon, but her overall attitude, demeanor, and policy support are likely to keep her down in a statewide election. Remember, she is still recovering from her sore loser rants following the March Senate Primary where it showed that the people of California really didn’t want her to be a Senator. And, like here, she was leading early polls for that too.

“The Democrats, as this poll shows, are also fractured. After Newsom and all the crime and lost economic footing, people want California to surge again and draw back people and jobs and even little things like bringing the movie industry back. Even with Porter getting 14% in the second poll, there is no current clear cut candidate. The GOP, meanwhile, needs someone who can give a decent challenge. The three speculative Republicans did ok all things considered, but they need to be more unified. They need that candidate to enter who can make waves and really go after all the problems in California.

“The poll is interesting, and if anything, shows that Porter might be a good option for the Dems to run. But it is still way too early. Let’s wrap up the 2024 election first, get everyone in office, then see where we are in early 2025 to really get a decent layout poll-wise.”

More 2026 Gubernatorial polls are likely to come out soon.