56% Of Californians Have Considered A Move Away From California According To A New Poll

A new poll of California residents released this week found that 56% of Californians have considered moving away from the state, with the main reason being cost of living.

California’s state population nearly reached 40 million in the 2010’s, but began losing people at the end of the decade because of high taxes, a decline in conditions, lost job opportunities, business regulations, safety concerns, the cost of living, and other reasons. COVID quickened the process, giving many the excuse needed to move away because of remote work. According to the 2020 U.S. Census, California’s population that year was at roughly 39.5 million. But California’s population decreased dramatically in the next several years. Hundreds of thousands of people left the state. At the same time, immigration was largely curbed by the pandemic, with fewer families choosing to start families during the same time. As a result, even with inter-state immigration, California continued to lose people.

By July 2022, the state had just over 39.1 million people, with the greatest losses coming from the Bay area of the state. In 2022 alone, over 800,000 people left California to go to other states. Compared to the 2020 Census, the state population stood at 38.96 million in July 2023. While the population did eventually rebound and is currently at around 39.1 million, many issues that caused people to leave still linger, including cost of living.

The number of Californians thinking about leaving hasn’t waned throughout this entire time. A UC Berkeley poll in 2019 found that 52% of Californians had given at least some consideration of a move. Polls during the COVID years saw similar numbers with people more emboldened for a move. And while many reasons for a move dissipated, one remained front and center – cost of living. With that still being a huge hurdle for many Californians, it kept the number of people thinking of a possible move high. And this week, the Emerson College poll found that 56% of all Californians have considered leaving the state due to the cost of living.

When broken down, the high cost of food, housing, utilities, and prescription meds was especially prevalent. The poll found that 37% of voters have made tradeoffs between paying for food or utilities in the past month, while 35% have made tradeoffs between paying for food and housing in the past month. A slightly lesser problem but still high nonetheless was prescriptions, with 26% having made tradeoffs between paying for food and prescription medications in the past month. It should be noted that respondents could pick one, two, or three of these options.

Majority of Californians have thought of leaving California in recent years

Overall, while California’s population is slowly moving up again thanks to immigration, COVID restrictions going away, and to a smaller extent, residents moving back to California from a previous relocated state, the state is still an issue or two away from residents leaving and the state facing another population loss. Public safety issues are still there, but thanks to voter pressure, many progressive laws that had upset many people who previously left have been waning in recent years. On the other hand, economic issues, such as a massive loss of fast food jobs this year thanks to a new minimum wage, could trigger more to leave.

“It’s quite a delicate situation right now,” explained interstate migration researcher Laura Paulding to the Globe on Friday. “Some areas things are improving, in other places things are getting worse for residents. California is getting a rise in people again, but it is nothing compared to previous decades when California, for example, saw more Congressional members come in. It was so bad in 2020 in the Census that they actually lost a House seat.

“The fact that so many residents are still thinking of leaving to some extent, or have thought about it, should be a warning sign for the state. Cost of living is still a killer for many, and they need to do something to try and keep costs from going up even more. Loosening regulations could help, more rent control, price caps on things, new medicine controls. All of those are being tried or are in place in California to some extent now. Rent control, in particular, is in effect for many cities in Southern California, especially in older buildings.

“That, high prices in other desirable states, the return of migration to California, and COVID ending many work from home jobs all helped get California growing in population again. But as the poll showed, many are still on that edge, with many one straw away from breaking that back and making the difficult decision to call a moving truck.”

New population figures for California are to come out soon, with the new state figure expected to continued limited growth.